ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

I got the feeling this thing is going to be a lot faster in foreward speed than anticipated. I wonder how that will effect models.

[Swimdude]

The next NHC update is at 5am

Unless of course the eye clears out and something crazy happens, in which case it would be sooner.

[Trishasmom]

:?: People really need to stop and take a look at how far away we are from the potential of ANY landfall what-so-ever and try and remember the last time any forecasted track was correct 10 days in advance. Anyone? No? That is what I thought. The track this far ahead in time has at least proven to me to be shoddy at best. Irene was supposed to be a FL hurricane or a extremely curved one that never even set sights on the US, look what happened with that! Hurricanes do what they do and have a mind of their own. If it does not want to follow your track, it aint gonna. Seems when a Hurricane does the opposite of expectations, there is some hidden reason forecasters overlooked or did not take into consideration. I am confident that this will not take the PP estimated this early on, cause it was estimated this early on lol.

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Hello, while nobody can say for certain where she ends up and whether she impacts the United States, there is reasonable certainty at this time it will not be a United States impact (see models thread for discussion).

After what we just went through, let me say I would much rather be prepared for the worst and not get it than think oh this is nothing and get the worst. We even prepared to the best we could for Irene but our best wasn't enough. Thank God and all those wonderful power crews who got our power back on this evening. You can bet I'm watching Katia like a hawk. I dont care how far away it is.... it's no far enough away as far as I am concerned. I'm tired and worn out from Irene not in the mood to deal with Katia but am already starting to get ready just in case. Lost all of our food in fridge and freezer but gonna just replace can goods until I see what Katia has planned and then will rethink my shopping.

I do want to give a big thumbs up for all those men and women who are working so hard to restore power to everyone. It is much appreciated. We were without power for 2 weeks with Isabel and only 4 days with Irene so much faster even though in our area we had more damage this time in my opinion. Power lines down up and down the road in our area. Scary!!!!

Carol

[cycloneye]

This ASCAT pass was made around 8 PM EDT.



Saved image.

[clfenwi]

The scatterometer image backs up the 00Z best track placement; the estimates of the Dvorak analysts were a too far east. As the discussion stated, center was more to the edge of convection rather than the center of it.

Latest shortwave infrared image:

[meriland23]

The scatterometer image backs up the 00Z best track placement; the estimates of the Dvorak analysts were a too far east. As the discussion stated, center was more to the edge of convection rather than the center of it.

Latest shortwave infrared image:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/70 ... tiair2.jpg[/url]

My goodness, look at that eye!

Btw, just fill me in, I am still learning. What is the scatterometer? And also , being the center is more to the edge of convection than the center like you stated, does that indicate something in reference to the track placement?

[RL3AO]

I'm thinking thats not an eye. Just an illusion. Look how weak the convection is on the NW side.

However the area at 13.5 37 maybe does look like an eyewall at 2nd look.

[SouthFloridawx]

It's a wonder people don't take bets on Model runs, lol.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm thinking thats not an eye. Just an illusion. Look how weak the convection is on the NW side.

However the area at 13.5 37 maybe does look like an eyewall at 2nd look.
[img]http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/RL3AO/avn-l-3.jpg[/ig]

oh it is the beginnings of one. you can tell be that last burst of convection and the motion it took around the feature. still in its development stages of course so it going to look worse at times and fill in and look ragged. till deep convection maintains around it..

[cycloneye]

Aric,a dry slot or an eyefeature?



Saved image.

[SouthFloridawx]

NCAR's new Website is pretty cool. It even has an archive of model runs.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/

[SouthFloridawx]

That is one monster ULL to the NE of Katia...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[clfenwi]

My goodness, look at that eye!

Btw, just fill me in, I am still learning. What is the scatterometer? And also , being the center is more to the edge of convection than the center like you stated, does that indicate something in reference to the track placement?

Wind scatterometers are instruments on satellites that measure (near) surface winds over water. The image Cycloneye posted was from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) carried onboard a European satellite.

Noticing that the center is more to the edge of convection was important to establishing the initial position of the storm, which in turn establishes the estimated storm motion. Had the center been placed further east, the estimated motion would have been slower, which would have affected the forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,a dry slot or an eyefeature?

[img]http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/7566/wvlu.jpg[/ig]

Saved image.

its easier to follow in this loops. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

you can see as the convection waned the mid and low level center than more convection developed on south side covering it and rotating around to the east where it is now weakening again.. the little hole that is wobbling around is just the burst of convection partially covering the earlier visible mid and low level circ.. its the beginning of it but not a true eye as the eyewall is not quite established yet.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is that ULL supposed to weaken the ridge?

[meriland23]

NCAR's new Website is pretty cool. It even has an archive of model runs.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/1107 ... ackear.png

What the ... BAMS track would surely confuse me, I would be convinced Katia drinkin' too much and getting a little tipsy.

[AnnularCane]

She looks like a little embryo on the shortwave infrared image.

[Annie Oakley]

Indeed Annular...the birth of a hurricane. Love that look of Mother Nature.

[meriland23]

She is seriously bookin it, she wants to get somewhere fast.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Our local met said we need to watch there the "hurricane" is and if it hits Japan it Japan gets hit then we have a good chance of getting hit by Katia if it misses Japan then Katia will most likely stay away from the US East Coast, I live in North Carolina we just got Irene and I don't want another hurricane this year we have had our fix for at least 5 years if that is what you can call it. some of still dont have power and looking at several more days here.

What in Seven Hells? What is this madness?! How can one cane influence another?