ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion
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Dave
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Dave
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URNT15 KNHC 090714
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 23 20110909
070430 1855N 09138W 6969 03172 0074 +091 +063 203039 039 038 001 00
070500 1855N 09136W 6967 03171 0073 +091 +058 203039 039 039 000 00
070530 1855N 09134W 6969 03173 0079 +090 +059 201040 040 039 001 00
070600 1856N 09132W 6967 03172 0074 +092 +055 202040 040 037 000 00
070630 1856N 09130W 6967 03174 0073 +095 +051 202039 039 038 000 03
070700 1857N 09128W 6969 03169 0075 +093 +056 201038 038 037 000 03
070730 1857N 09126W 6966 03176 0076 +091 +065 200039 039 035 000 03
070800 1857N 09124W 6969 03173 0076 +090 +063 200038 038 034 000 03
070830 1858N 09122W 6967 03172 0080 +088 +072 202038 038 032 000 03
070900 1858N 09120W 6969 03169 0080 +089 +070 202035 036 031 000 00
070930 1858N 09118W 6967 03181 0088 +085 +078 204035 036 026 000 03
071000 1900N 09117W 6966 03182 0093 +085 +078 200033 033 /// /// 03
071030 1902N 09119W 6971 03169 0083 +085 +080 198033 034 034 000 03
071100 1903N 09120W 6967 03173 0083 +085 +073 194034 035 036 000 03
071130 1904N 09122W 6967 03174 0078 +087 +074 195036 036 038 000 00
071200 1906N 09123W 6967 03172 0074 +091 +062 192036 037 038 001 03
071230 1907N 09124W 6967 03172 0077 +089 +060 196039 040 039 000 00
071300 1908N 09126W 6968 03168 0079 +085 +071 198036 037 039 001 00
071330 1910N 09127W 6967 03165 0075 +085 +075 198037 038 037 002 00
071400 1911N 09129W 6967 03166 0075 +085 +071 197039 040 039 000 03
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 090714
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 23 20110909
070430 1855N 09138W 6969 03172 0074 +091 +063 203039 039 038 001 00
070500 1855N 09136W 6967 03171 0073 +091 +058 203039 039 039 000 00
070530 1855N 09134W 6969 03173 0079 +090 +059 201040 040 039 001 00
070600 1856N 09132W 6967 03172 0074 +092 +055 202040 040 037 000 00
070630 1856N 09130W 6967 03174 0073 +095 +051 202039 039 038 000 03
070700 1857N 09128W 6969 03169 0075 +093 +056 201038 038 037 000 03
070730 1857N 09126W 6966 03176 0076 +091 +065 200039 039 035 000 03
070800 1857N 09124W 6969 03173 0076 +090 +063 200038 038 034 000 03
070830 1858N 09122W 6967 03172 0080 +088 +072 202038 038 032 000 03
070900 1858N 09120W 6969 03169 0080 +089 +070 202035 036 031 000 00
070930 1858N 09118W 6967 03181 0088 +085 +078 204035 036 026 000 03
071000 1900N 09117W 6966 03182 0093 +085 +078 200033 033 /// /// 03
071030 1902N 09119W 6971 03169 0083 +085 +080 198033 034 034 000 03
071100 1903N 09120W 6967 03173 0083 +085 +073 194034 035 036 000 03
071130 1904N 09122W 6967 03174 0078 +087 +074 195036 036 038 000 00
071200 1906N 09123W 6967 03172 0074 +091 +062 192036 037 038 001 03
071230 1907N 09124W 6967 03172 0077 +089 +060 196039 040 039 000 00
071300 1908N 09126W 6968 03168 0079 +085 +071 198036 037 039 001 00
071330 1910N 09127W 6967 03165 0075 +085 +075 198037 038 037 002 00
071400 1911N 09129W 6967 03166 0075 +085 +071 197039 040 039 000 03
$$
;
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Dave
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Dave
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808
URNT15 KNHC 090724
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 24 20110909
071430 1912N 09130W 6967 03163 0075 +085 +064 197038 040 039 000 00
071500 1914N 09132W 6966 03165 0073 +084 +058 191035 035 040 001 03
071530 1915N 09133W 6970 03159 0074 +082 +068 186034 035 040 000 03
071600 1916N 09134W 6966 03165 0066 +087 +065 187036 036 041 000 03
071630 1918N 09136W 6968 03154 0062 +089 +072 188036 037 040 003 00
071700 1919N 09137W 6966 03161 0068 +081 //// 186035 035 040 005 01
071730 1921N 09139W 6966 03154 0069 +079 //// 187034 035 040 009 01
071800 1922N 09140W 6972 03143 0068 +077 //// 186035 035 041 012 01
071830 1923N 09142W 6966 03153 0070 +075 //// 183034 034 044 011 01
071900 1925N 09143W 6975 03140 //// +075 //// 206036 038 045 016 01
071930 1926N 09145W 6977 03137 //// +078 //// 219031 034 046 013 01
072000 1927N 09146W 6963 03154 //// +079 //// 222031 032 047 008 01
072030 1929N 09147W 6968 03141 //// +086 //// 213032 035 044 005 01
072100 1930N 09149W 6968 03141 0033 +094 //// 209030 032 043 004 01
072130 1931N 09150W 6963 03143 //// +086 //// 213030 033 044 005 01
072200 1933N 09151W 6970 03135 0021 +097 //// 208026 026 041 002 01
072230 1934N 09153W 6967 03132 0014 +101 //// 203026 026 035 002 01
072300 1935N 09154W 6966 03131 0008 +104 +102 198023 025 027 001 03
072330 1936N 09156W 6969 03128 0004 +105 +104 194025 025 028 001 00
072400 1937N 09157W 6967 03127 0003 +102 //// 197023 024 029 000 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090724
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 24 20110909
071430 1912N 09130W 6967 03163 0075 +085 +064 197038 040 039 000 00
071500 1914N 09132W 6966 03165 0073 +084 +058 191035 035 040 001 03
071530 1915N 09133W 6970 03159 0074 +082 +068 186034 035 040 000 03
071600 1916N 09134W 6966 03165 0066 +087 +065 187036 036 041 000 03
071630 1918N 09136W 6968 03154 0062 +089 +072 188036 037 040 003 00
071700 1919N 09137W 6966 03161 0068 +081 //// 186035 035 040 005 01
071730 1921N 09139W 6966 03154 0069 +079 //// 187034 035 040 009 01
071800 1922N 09140W 6972 03143 0068 +077 //// 186035 035 041 012 01
071830 1923N 09142W 6966 03153 0070 +075 //// 183034 034 044 011 01
071900 1925N 09143W 6975 03140 //// +075 //// 206036 038 045 016 01
071930 1926N 09145W 6977 03137 //// +078 //// 219031 034 046 013 01
072000 1927N 09146W 6963 03154 //// +079 //// 222031 032 047 008 01
072030 1929N 09147W 6968 03141 //// +086 //// 213032 035 044 005 01
072100 1930N 09149W 6968 03141 0033 +094 //// 209030 032 043 004 01
072130 1931N 09150W 6963 03143 //// +086 //// 213030 033 044 005 01
072200 1933N 09151W 6970 03135 0021 +097 //// 208026 026 041 002 01
072230 1934N 09153W 6967 03132 0014 +101 //// 203026 026 035 002 01
072300 1935N 09154W 6966 03131 0008 +104 +102 198023 025 027 001 03
072330 1936N 09156W 6969 03128 0004 +105 +104 194025 025 028 001 00
072400 1937N 09157W 6967 03127 0003 +102 //// 197023 024 029 000 01
$$
;
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Dave
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Dave
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302
URNT15 KNHC 090734
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 25 20110909
072430 1938N 09159W 6965 03126 0001 +102 //// 196021 022 030 001 01
072500 1939N 09201W 6971 03118 9998 +105 //// 202019 020 029 004 01
072530 1940N 09202W 6966 03122 0001 +099 //// 201019 021 029 003 05
072600 1941N 09204W 6968 03117 9994 +103 +103 203017 017 023 000 00
072630 1942N 09206W 6968 03114 9994 +101 //// 210017 017 011 001 05
072700 1942N 09207W 6966 03116 9995 +099 //// 204015 016 011 001 01
072730 1943N 09209W 6970 03110 9992 +101 +099 201013 014 006 000 00
072800 1944N 09211W 6967 03110 9988 +103 +094 201012 013 001 000 03
072830 1944N 09213W 6967 03112 9990 +101 +095 216011 011 004 000 00
072900 1945N 09214W 6963 03114 9989 +099 //// 206009 011 006 001 05
072930 1946N 09216W 6967 03107 9986 +099 //// 190003 005 002 002 05
073000 1947N 09218W 6966 03109 9979 +105 +102 211003 004 004 002 03
073030 1948N 09219W 6970 03099 9979 +105 +102 285006 007 000 001 03
073100 1949N 09220W 6963 03111 9966 +115 +091 289006 006 /// /// 03
073130 1950N 09222W 6968 03103 9972 +111 +093 351005 006 /// /// 03
073200 1952N 09223W 6967 03104 9973 +110 +096 012009 009 000 001 03
073230 1953N 09224W 6965 03106 9973 +109 +097 007009 010 000 000 03
073300 1954N 09225W 6970 03102 9977 +106 +098 017012 014 000 002 03
073330 1955N 09227W 6967 03103 9969 +113 +099 025015 016 /// /// 03
073400 1957N 09228W 6967 03105 9968 +117 +091 030019 022 /// /// 03
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090734
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 25 20110909
072430 1938N 09159W 6965 03126 0001 +102 //// 196021 022 030 001 01
072500 1939N 09201W 6971 03118 9998 +105 //// 202019 020 029 004 01
072530 1940N 09202W 6966 03122 0001 +099 //// 201019 021 029 003 05
072600 1941N 09204W 6968 03117 9994 +103 +103 203017 017 023 000 00
072630 1942N 09206W 6968 03114 9994 +101 //// 210017 017 011 001 05
072700 1942N 09207W 6966 03116 9995 +099 //// 204015 016 011 001 01
072730 1943N 09209W 6970 03110 9992 +101 +099 201013 014 006 000 00
072800 1944N 09211W 6967 03110 9988 +103 +094 201012 013 001 000 03
072830 1944N 09213W 6967 03112 9990 +101 +095 216011 011 004 000 00
072900 1945N 09214W 6963 03114 9989 +099 //// 206009 011 006 001 05
072930 1946N 09216W 6967 03107 9986 +099 //// 190003 005 002 002 05
073000 1947N 09218W 6966 03109 9979 +105 +102 211003 004 004 002 03
073030 1948N 09219W 6970 03099 9979 +105 +102 285006 007 000 001 03
073100 1949N 09220W 6963 03111 9966 +115 +091 289006 006 /// /// 03
073130 1950N 09222W 6968 03103 9972 +111 +093 351005 006 /// /// 03
073200 1952N 09223W 6967 03104 9973 +110 +096 012009 009 000 001 03
073230 1953N 09224W 6965 03106 9973 +109 +097 007009 010 000 000 03
073300 1954N 09225W 6970 03102 9977 +106 +098 017012 014 000 002 03
073330 1955N 09227W 6967 03103 9969 +113 +099 025015 016 /// /// 03
073400 1957N 09228W 6967 03105 9968 +117 +091 030019 022 /// /// 03
$$
;
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Dave
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Dave
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500
URNT15 KNHC 090744
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 26 20110909
073430 1958N 09229W 6967 03112 9967 +118 +095 036022 022 /// /// 03
073500 1959N 09230W 6968 03108 9969 +117 +094 033022 022 /// /// 03
073530 2001N 09231W 6971 03106 9972 +115 +098 029024 024 /// /// 03
073600 2002N 09233W 6967 03118 9971 +119 +090 016025 026 /// /// 03
073630 2003N 09234W 6965 03113 9970 +121 +087 012027 028 /// /// 03
073700 2004N 09235W 6970 03113 9972 +122 +084 006029 029 000 002 03
073730 2006N 09236W 6969 03115 9973 +122 +084 005029 030 011 001 00
073800 2007N 09237W 6969 03118 9976 +120 +088 007028 029 018 000 03
073830 2008N 09238W 6969 03118 9975 +123 +083 006029 030 023 000 00
073900 2009N 09239W 6966 03124 9977 +123 +080 006030 030 026 001 03
073930 2011N 09240W 6963 03130 9983 +120 +079 008029 029 030 002 00
074000 2012N 09242W 6969 03128 9984 +123 +077 013030 030 032 001 00
074030 2013N 09243W 6967 03133 9989 +120 +080 017030 030 034 001 00
074100 2014N 09244W 6968 03136 9995 +119 +083 025031 032 036 002 00
074130 2015N 09245W 6963 03135 9999 +116 +081 022032 033 036 002 00
074200 2017N 09246W 6964 03140 0004 +112 +087 031031 032 037 003 00
074230 2018N 09247W 6972 03130 0007 +111 +086 028031 032 037 003 00
074300 2019N 09249W 6967 03142 0012 +110 +086 032033 033 038 001 00
074330 2021N 09250W 6971 03132 0013 +109 +089 036033 034 038 002 00
074400 2022N 09251W 6967 03144 0019 +107 +091 035034 035 040 001 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090744
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 26 20110909
073430 1958N 09229W 6967 03112 9967 +118 +095 036022 022 /// /// 03
073500 1959N 09230W 6968 03108 9969 +117 +094 033022 022 /// /// 03
073530 2001N 09231W 6971 03106 9972 +115 +098 029024 024 /// /// 03
073600 2002N 09233W 6967 03118 9971 +119 +090 016025 026 /// /// 03
073630 2003N 09234W 6965 03113 9970 +121 +087 012027 028 /// /// 03
073700 2004N 09235W 6970 03113 9972 +122 +084 006029 029 000 002 03
073730 2006N 09236W 6969 03115 9973 +122 +084 005029 030 011 001 00
073800 2007N 09237W 6969 03118 9976 +120 +088 007028 029 018 000 03
073830 2008N 09238W 6969 03118 9975 +123 +083 006029 030 023 000 00
073900 2009N 09239W 6966 03124 9977 +123 +080 006030 030 026 001 03
073930 2011N 09240W 6963 03130 9983 +120 +079 008029 029 030 002 00
074000 2012N 09242W 6969 03128 9984 +123 +077 013030 030 032 001 00
074030 2013N 09243W 6967 03133 9989 +120 +080 017030 030 034 001 00
074100 2014N 09244W 6968 03136 9995 +119 +083 025031 032 036 002 00
074130 2015N 09245W 6963 03135 9999 +116 +081 022032 033 036 002 00
074200 2017N 09246W 6964 03140 0004 +112 +087 031031 032 037 003 00
074230 2018N 09247W 6972 03130 0007 +111 +086 028031 032 037 003 00
074300 2019N 09249W 6967 03142 0012 +110 +086 032033 033 038 001 00
074330 2021N 09250W 6971 03132 0013 +109 +089 036033 034 038 002 00
074400 2022N 09251W 6967 03144 0019 +107 +091 035034 035 040 001 00
$$
;
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Dave
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Dave
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000
URNT12 KNHC 090749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 09/07:29:40Z
B. 19 deg 46 min N
092 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 3068 m
D. 47 kt
E. 122 deg 34 nm
F. 197 deg 40 kt
G. 126 deg 55 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 10 C / 3046 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0315A NATE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 55 KT N QUAD 05:50:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C 117 / 23 NM FROM FL CNTR
URNT12 KNHC 090749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 09/07:29:40Z
B. 19 deg 46 min N
092 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 3068 m
D. 47 kt
E. 122 deg 34 nm
F. 197 deg 40 kt
G. 126 deg 55 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 10 C / 3046 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0315A NATE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 55 KT N QUAD 05:50:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C 117 / 23 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Dave
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000
UZNT13 KNHC 090750
XXAA 59077 99198 70923 04692 99998 23811 24014 00513 ///// /////
92669 22011 24016 85403 19219 25019 70054 10401 24503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80729
61616 AF303 0315A NATE OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1978N09226W 0734 MBL WND 23514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
014 998697 WL150 23515 084 REL 1977N09228W 072944 SPG 1978N09226W
073414 =
XXBB 59078 99198 70923 04692 00998 23811 11850 19219 22710 11805
21212 00998 24014 11978 22513 22971 23512 33953 24016 44905 24516
55863 23517 66850 25019 77811 24015 88745 27012 99736 29011
31313 09608 80729
61616 AF303 0315A NATE OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1978N09226W 0734 MBL WND 23514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
014 998697 WL150 23515 084 REL 1977N09228W 072944 SPG 1978N09226W
073414 =
;
UZNT13 KNHC 090750
XXAA 59077 99198 70923 04692 99998 23811 24014 00513 ///// /////
92669 22011 24016 85403 19219 25019 70054 10401 24503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80729
61616 AF303 0315A NATE OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1978N09226W 0734 MBL WND 23514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
014 998697 WL150 23515 084 REL 1977N09228W 072944 SPG 1978N09226W
073414 =
XXBB 59078 99198 70923 04692 00998 23811 11850 19219 22710 11805
21212 00998 24014 11978 22513 22971 23512 33953 24016 44905 24516
55863 23517 66850 25019 77811 24015 88745 27012 99736 29011
31313 09608 80729
61616 AF303 0315A NATE OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1978N09226W 0734 MBL WND 23514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
014 998697 WL150 23515 084 REL 1977N09228W 072944 SPG 1978N09226W
073414 =
;
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Dave
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947
URNT15 KNHC 090756
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 27 20110909
074430 2023N 09252W 6964 03146 0023 +105 +085 038034 034 038 002 00
074500 2024N 09253W 6968 03143 0026 +103 +087 036033 034 039 002 00
074530 2026N 09254W 6969 03143 0031 +100 +090 037032 032 038 001 00
074600 2027N 09256W 6966 03148 0033 +099 +089 035031 032 036 002 00
074630 2028N 09257W 6967 03149 0036 +097 +090 036032 032 036 001 00
074700 2028N 09257W 6967 03149 0039 +096 +091 037030 032 037 001 00
074730 2031N 09259W 6969 03150 0042 +096 +091 036030 031 036 001 00
074800 2032N 09300W 6961 03163 0044 +095 //// 040029 031 034 003 01
074830 2034N 09302W 6972 03150 0048 +095 //// 041030 030 036 000 01
074900 2035N 09303W 6967 03158 0049 +094 +090 040031 031 034 001 00
074930 2036N 09304W 6971 03153 0048 +095 //// 047029 031 034 001 01
075000 2038N 09305W 6971 03153 0054 +092 //// 051031 032 034 001 01
075030 2039N 09307W 6970 03155 0057 +092 +085 044035 036 033 002 00
075100 2040N 09308W 6971 03156 0058 +093 +090 046034 036 030 002 00
075130 2041N 09309W 6967 03165 0059 +092 +091 047035 036 031 001 00
075200 2043N 09310W 6967 03162 0058 +094 +085 048036 038 031 000 00
075230 2044N 09311W 6967 03164 0061 +094 +075 049037 038 031 000 00
075300 2045N 09313W 6967 03161 0061 +095 +073 049038 038 031 000 00
075330 2047N 09314W 6969 03165 0067 +091 +074 049037 038 032 000 00
075400 2048N 09315W 6967 03166 0071 +089 +078 050035 036 031 000 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 090756
AF303 0315A NATE HDOB 27 20110909
074430 2023N 09252W 6964 03146 0023 +105 +085 038034 034 038 002 00
074500 2024N 09253W 6968 03143 0026 +103 +087 036033 034 039 002 00
074530 2026N 09254W 6969 03143 0031 +100 +090 037032 032 038 001 00
074600 2027N 09256W 6966 03148 0033 +099 +089 035031 032 036 002 00
074630 2028N 09257W 6967 03149 0036 +097 +090 036032 032 036 001 00
074700 2028N 09257W 6967 03149 0039 +096 +091 037030 032 037 001 00
074730 2031N 09259W 6969 03150 0042 +096 +091 036030 031 036 001 00
074800 2032N 09300W 6961 03163 0044 +095 //// 040029 031 034 003 01
074830 2034N 09302W 6972 03150 0048 +095 //// 041030 030 036 000 01
074900 2035N 09303W 6967 03158 0049 +094 +090 040031 031 034 001 00
074930 2036N 09304W 6971 03153 0048 +095 //// 047029 031 034 001 01
075000 2038N 09305W 6971 03153 0054 +092 //// 051031 032 034 001 01
075030 2039N 09307W 6970 03155 0057 +092 +085 044035 036 033 002 00
075100 2040N 09308W 6971 03156 0058 +093 +090 046034 036 030 002 00
075130 2041N 09309W 6967 03165 0059 +092 +091 047035 036 031 001 00
075200 2043N 09310W 6967 03162 0058 +094 +085 048036 038 031 000 00
075230 2044N 09311W 6967 03164 0061 +094 +075 049037 038 031 000 00
075300 2045N 09313W 6967 03161 0061 +095 +073 049038 038 031 000 00
075330 2047N 09314W 6969 03165 0067 +091 +074 049037 038 032 000 00
075400 2048N 09315W 6967 03166 0071 +089 +078 050035 036 031 000 00
$$
;
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Dave
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Someone else take over for awhile, I need a break. Thanks..and good morning!
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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O Town
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nate definitely not looking great this morning, convection has waned. Some thought it would blow
up over night. Doesn't appear to be the case.
up over night. Doesn't appear to be the case.
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#ORLANDOSTRONG
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: NATE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
...NATE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN GULF
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION...AND NATE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE AND TABASCO...AND OVER SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
...NATE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN GULF
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION...AND NATE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE AND TABASCO...AND OVER SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Air Force Met
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
O Town wrote:Nate definitely not looking great this morning, convection has waned. Some thought it would blow
up over night. Doesn't appear to be the case.
Frankly I am surprised it's doing as good as it is. Probably the only reason it is maintaining any convection at all is because its hiding in the far south corner of the Gulf.
Th G-IV flight passed through the front yesterday at 5K feet and found -30C dewpoints. There was a 40+C dewpoint spread across the front around 25/26N. That's bone dry at 850MB. Hard to believe Nate hasn't sucked in more of that dry air and killed himself. MIMIC showed some of that process starting yesterday...which is why you see this ragged/pulsing appearance today.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
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At 12Z, a ship still reported 48 kt sustained (and those are 10-min sust I believe).
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models
what is the CLP5 model?...https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15.gif
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by underthwx on Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models
underthwx wrote:what is the CLP5 model?...
Climatology. Just ignore it.
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Tireman4
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CLP5 CLIPER5 (Climatology and Persistence model) Statistical baseline E Trk ..
I think, and someone correct me, it is the climatological model.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml
I think, and someone correct me, it is the climatological model.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml
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