ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

CNN should keep the camera on Rob Marciano on Long Beach. That will give people a better representation of what this storm is about.

SFT

[jlauderdal]

WHDH Boston has a reporter live in Central Park New York - folks are jogging in the park. Power is on and no sign of trees down.

Reporter said, 'some folks are saying the worst is yet to come, though others are beginning to suggest that this may be as bad as it is going to get'.

500 TV reporters are now furiously searching for a downed tree limb to report live from!!!!

we have been through this scenario many times in SE FL

[wxman57]

Until we can predict with certainty the track and the intensity, it seems to me that the media and officials are in a no win situation. Either they are accused of ignoring much needed preps or they are accused of hype and over-reacting.

Bryan Norcross was just saying that the strongest winds are way out on the eastern/NE side of Irene and that Boston *could* see stronger winds that NYC. Wondering if that will pan out.

I can't fault anyone for getting people out of harm's way, as hurricane intensity forecasting leaves much to be desired and decisions must be made days in advance of possible impact. I just hope they let the people know that they are going through a moderate but weakening tropical storm, not a hurricane today. A hurricane would be much, much worse.

[cycloneye]

CNN should keep the camera on Rob Marciano on Long Beach. That will give people a better representation of what this storm is about.

SFT

And John King in Rockaway beach.

[opticsguy]

I haven't read many comments on the models. I remember emailing a friend in LI the GFS forecast from last Sunday showing the storm right on top of KJFK (actually, a little West of that). It has been pretty consistent throughout the week as the HWRF and GFDL wandered West and East with the track until 48 hours or so ago.

Way to go GFS.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Recon archive for 2011 is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2011/

Specifically: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2011/HDOB/

Choose USAF or NOAA and then Atlantic (URNT).

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NEW YORK CITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 74.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...
AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT...IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAUGUE VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THE TIDAL
POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR NEW YORK CITY THIS MORNING...AND MOVE
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320
MILES...520 KM. GROTON CONNECTICUT RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H.

BATTERY PARK NEW YORK CITY HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A TOTAL WATER LEVEL
NEAR 8.6 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
WATER LEVELS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES
DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER
FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN
THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[jlauderdal]

CNN should keep the camera on Rob Marciano on Long Beach. That will give people a better representation of what this storm is about.

SFT

yep, the action is out there not where they have cooper stationed, imagine a cat 2 or higher hitting those skyscrapers

[opticsguy]

Just noticed another forum for that. Never mind.

[Thunder44]

8am advisory is out. Still a 75mph hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NEW YORK CITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 74.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281153
AF306 3509A IRENE HDOB 36 20110828
114400 4009N 07408W 6967 02775 9612 +112 +053 244020 025 /// /// 03
114430 4009N 07405W 6972 02768 9596 +125 +054 215026 028 /// /// 03
114500 4009N 07403W 6963 02778 9593 +127 +055 204030 032 /// /// 03
114530 4009N 07400W 6971 02769 9606 +118 +057 206039 043 /// /// 03
114600 4009N 07358W 6969 02783 9629 +105 +058 201052 054 045 000 03
114630 4009N 07355W 6967 02788 9642 +100 +058 197056 057 050 002 03
114700 4009N 07355W 6967 02788 9648 +100 +058 195058 059 053 000 03
114730 4009N 07350W 6969 02800 9657 +100 +058 194060 060 050 000 00
114800 4009N 07348W 6965 02811 9664 +100 +058 192062 063 049 000 03
114830 4010N 07345W 6968 02814 9671 +099 +058 191063 063 050 000 03
114900 4010N 07343W 6965 02824 9678 +097 +059 190065 065 050 003 00
114930 4010N 07340W 6967 02825 9685 +095 +059 190065 065 050 002 00
115000 4010N 07338W 6967 02832 9688 +095 +058 189066 066 048 002 03
115030 4010N 07336W 6968 02831 9693 +096 +058 188067 067 049 000 00
115100 4010N 07333W 6966 02840 9698 +095 +058 189067 068 047 000 03
115130 4010N 07331W 6966 02845 9702 +097 +058 188068 069 046 000 03
115200 4010N 07329W 6971 02843 9706 +096 +058 188068 068 046 001 00
115230 4010N 07326W 6965 02852 9715 +095 +058 187068 068 046 000 03
115300 4011N 07324W 6967 02854 9719 +095 +058 186068 068 045 000 03
115330 4011N 07322W 6969 02856 9721 +095 +057 187068 068 044 003 00
$$
;

[Hogweed]

Bergen Point, West Reach,



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[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC didn't downgrade for the 8:00AM advisory. I don't know how they are justifying continuing to call this a hurricane?

SFT

[Thunder44]

This is the highest wind report I've seen so far in NYC/LI area. :

0620 AM NON-TSTM WND GST EAST MORICHES 40.81N 72.76W
08/28/2011 M71 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET

MESONET

There more in the Upton NWS LSR:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=0

[jinftl]

Hurricane 40 miles ssw of NYC and latest observations out of Central Park- not even gusting to tropical storm force.

800 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
CENTRAL PARK HVY RAIN WIND E16G30


Quite a different scene on the immediate coast:

KENNEDY INTL RAIN WIND E35G46


The surge is troublesome - BATTERY PARK NEW YORK CITY HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A TOTAL WATER LEVEL
NEAR 8.6 FEET. Does anyone have the stats on where might flood with that?

[SouthFLTropics]

Recent live shot from the East River shows that it is close to cresting the seawalls there. That could be a very big problem if it gets any higher.

SFT

[Chacor]

This seems to my untrained, unprofessional self to be more of a storm that is already starting to undergo extratropical transition. It definitely doesn't have the look of an orthodox hurricane, or even a strong tropical storm.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Mark]

NHC didn't downgrade for the 8:00AM advisory. I don't know how they are justifying continuing to call this a hurricane?

SFT

From surface obs and Wxman57's comments (calling Irene a weakening "moderate tropical storm") I would think that Irene would realistically be around 55 or 60 mph. But then again who knows. Maybe it will be a huge hassle having to explain what went wrong with intensity forecasts (quite a few reliable models were consistently predicting near a 925 mb monster around NC and category 2 off the Jersey coast) or why/how Irene weakened so much and constantly had trouble maintaining a strong inner core even while trekking warm gulfstream waters.