ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Evolution of last five hours:

1515Z:


2015Z:


Looks better organized to me...

[Nimbus]

This is moving so fast it will be Hispaniola and Jamaica under the gun soon. I'm sure the islanders are glad to let it just blow on through as a heavy squall maker. Could be nasty over by the Yucatan if it slows down and spins up.

[SouthDadeFish]

People on this board have been saying for a while now that 70W would be a magical number for 93L. Well it is almost there.

[xironman]

People on this board have been saying for a while now that 70W would be a magical number for 93L. Well it is almost there.

Yeah, it looked better this morning and it looks better now, tomorrow could be the day, somewhere around 70 but it could be still a bit too fast...

Time dependent
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Does look better now, though looks like the circulation is still mainly at the mid levels...

Think this one has a pretty decent chance of developing before it crashes into CA in 48-72hrs time.

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, seems to me like flooding has been somewhat worse this year then normal from the sounds of things?

Are you living in Guadeloupe??? You're 100% right! You guess it really nice, it's worse this year than normal and it's and euphemisme... we have had rain in excess since January every month rain rain rain and that's not want to stop with "only" a vigorous twave hitting Guadeloupe and the adjacents islands. Very worrying now as traffic jams have been reported because of the floods pose a real threat for most of the drivers. Hope that things return to normal tommorow afternoon if 93L decides to move away of the Lesser Antilles!

[Gustywind]

Excerpt from San Juan NWS discussion related to strong gusts in PR and VI.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS WERE OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS THIS
TROPICAL WAVE PASSES. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF OVER 40 KNOTS WERE
OBSERVED IN SAINT CROIX AND LA PARGUERA WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

Looks like much of the islands reported these strong gusts too at the same values (40kts): Guadeloupe, Martinica, and now PR and St Croix, no surprises once again, it's the signature of a very vigorous twave.

[KWT]

Nope Gustywind, just being observing lots!

Looking better tonight, may well get recon in tomorrow if this trend continues...I think there is a pretty good chance we make it 8/0/0....though obviously if it can pull up enough and escape CA and hit N.Belize or Yucatan then who knows.

[MGC]

Looks like 93L has some spin to it at the mid levels....might be difficult to get to the surface though at the speed it is trucking along at. Appears a bit better organized too......MGC

[cycloneye]

I dont know if anyone here agrees with me or not,but I can see 30% at 8 PM TWO.

[MississippiWx]

I dont know if anyone here agrees with me or not,but I can see 30% at 8 PM TWO.

I'm more aggressive than you...thinking 40%.

[ozonepete]

Risky going against cycloneye but I'll go with 40% too.

[Lowpressure]

Looks like 93L has some spin to it at the mid levels....might be difficult to get to the surface though at the speed it is trucking along at. Appears a bit better organized too......MGC

Agree 100% I was thinking mid levels look real good, but nothing at the surface yet.

[SouthDadeFish]

This is about the strongest I've ever seen 850mb vorticity without an LLC:

[ozonepete]

Well 850 mb sure ain't far from the surface, LOL.

[SouthDadeFish]

If this thing can develop an LLC tomorrow SHIPS is showing near ideal conditions for intensification....

[Gustywind]

The point of the situation with 93L in the Lesser Antilles
Martinica has back on its yellow alert at 5PM , Guadeloupe is always in orange alert since 12AM, and now the Northern Leewards are in yellow since 5PM. We continue to follow closely what could happens tonight as new burst of strong convection seems to refire just east of Guadeloupe near la Désirade.

[underthwx]

How long does it take for the Summer Death Ridges to weaken permanently? Are we looking at Protection even into Late September?

no it will weaken and even move west....give it another week...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS SE TX THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL
BE A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AS PWS REMAIN IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE. MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND TOWARD THE COAST
BEGINNING THURSDAY (PWS 1.7-1.9 INCHES). WILL HAVE 20 POPS
MENTIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD EACH DAY BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. EVEN THESE 20 POPS WILL PROBABLY BE GENEROUS ON
SOME OF THE DAYS. NHC IS MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT (INVEST 93L).
NHC/HPC ARE FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING IT WELL SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IN FACT IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND
IT WILL LIKELY HELP STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EVEN
FURTHER. AS FAR AS THE UPPER RIDGE...THE MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING
IT SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH THE 12Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION

Houston Afternoon Discussion 4:40 P.M.

Looking like either scenario looking less likely for our area at this time.
Beneficial rains from a weak Tropical system, or, this ridge shifting WWD at time of this Discussion.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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[ROCK]

How long does it take for the Summer Death Ridges to weaken permanently? Are we looking at Protection even into Late September?

no it will weaken and even move west....give it another week...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS SE TX THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL
BE A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AS PWS REMAIN IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE. MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND TOWARD THE COAST
BEGINNING THURSDAY (PWS 1.7-1.9 INCHES). WILL HAVE 20 POPS
MENTIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD EACH DAY BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. EVEN THESE 20 POPS WILL PROBABLY BE GENEROUS ON
SOME OF THE DAYS. NHC IS MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT (INVEST 93L).
NHC/HPC ARE FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING IT WELL SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IN FACT IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND
IT WILL LIKELY HELP STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EVEN
FURTHER. AS FAR AS THE UPPER RIDGE...THE MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING
IT SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH THE 12Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION

Houston Afternoon Discussion 4:40 P.M.

Looking like either scenario looking less likely for our area at this time.
Beneficial rains from a weak Tropical system, or, this ridge shifting WWD at time of this Discussion.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Follow us on
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like a said give it another week....

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
GERT...WHICH BECAME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
HISPANIOLA EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH