ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[mf_dolphin]

Anyone know why the NHC isn't classifying this yet? Yes the circulation is broad, but so was Nicole last year...

Good question but I don't have an answer. I thought they would pull the trigger at 5. Maybe a special advisory will come later tonight.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'll be willing to bet they are finding a very broad circulation with multiple vorticies.

[lebron23]

should go straight to TS lee

[Nederlander]

Recon is finding lots of west winds, so the circulation is closed, but it is very broad still.

Has the 5pm advisory come out yet? It will be interesting to see the disco if this doesn't become Lee..

[indian]

does it look like it may make landfall in port arthur/cameron area?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

SouthDade, you read my mind. Was just going to post the latest visible of the gulf and to say how this is starting to get the classic comma head look to it. Should be Lee before the night is over if the current trends keep up. Shear is obviously still impacting it but does not look quite as strong as earlier. Won't take much to get this named though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Anyone know why the NHC isn't classifying this yet? Yes the circulation is broad, but so was Nicole last year...

Well, according to the weather.com home page:
"A NOAA plane is investigating the Gulf wave to determine if it has strengthened into a depression or tropical storm"

so it might be classified very soon. Last night I said that it would probably wait until tonight to
be classified, perhaps I might be right.....

[Stormcenter]

Subtropical/Hybrid?

Recon is finding lots of west winds, so the circulation is closed, but it is very broad still.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012100
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 29 20110901
205030 2500N 09140W 9591 00449 0087 +260 +239 299011 011 022 000 00
205100 2501N 09139W 9590 00449 0087 +261 +240 304010 010 021 000 00
205130 2503N 09137W 9591 00448 0086 +260 +241 297009 010 022 000 00
205200 2504N 09136W 9591 00448 0085 +262 +237 299010 011 021 000 00
205230 2506N 09135W 9591 00447 0085 +262 +236 299012 012 021 000 00
205300 2507N 09133W 9590 00448 0085 +262 +236 303012 012 022 000 00
205330 2508N 09132W 9592 00447 0086 +262 +235 302011 012 021 000 00
205400 2510N 09131W 9591 00449 0088 +262 +237 305011 011 020 000 00
205430 2511N 09130W 9591 00449 0087 +261 +239 301010 011 020 000 00
205500 2512N 09128W 9591 00448 0086 +261 +235 304010 011 019 000 00
205530 2514N 09127W 9591 00447 0086 +261 +233 305011 011 020 000 00
205600 2515N 09126W 9591 00448 0087 +261 +233 307010 010 019 000 00
205630 2516N 09124W 9591 00448 0087 +261 +234 303010 010 020 000 00
205700 2518N 09123W 9592 00449 0089 +260 +239 299009 009 020 000 00
205730 2519N 09122W 9591 00451 0089 +261 +234 303009 010 019 000 00
205800 2520N 09121W 9592 00449 0089 +261 +233 302009 009 020 000 00
205830 2522N 09119W 9592 00449 0088 +260 +236 300008 009 019 000 00
205900 2523N 09118W 9593 00446 0086 +260 +238 296009 009 019 000 00
205930 2524N 09117W 9594 00446 0087 +261 +235 301008 009 020 000 00
210000 2526N 09116W 9592 00447 0085 +261 +236 297009 009 019 000 00

[PauleinHouston]

Looks like the broad LL circulation has moved/is moving slowly W/SW now. If you compare to where recon found west winds last run and now, this supports that movement. Also visible on sat loop. I don't see this coming on shore anytime soon. I'm crossing fingers here in Texas that that ULL may help to wrap some more moisture around the north side and sling it our way...

[gboudx]

Oddly my chances of rain have bumped up from 20 to 30% for one day. Perhaps they think it may move far enough north to where we may get the north/left edge of the rain.

Or you'll have additional moisture around for when the cold front comes thru. That seems a more likely reason to me.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think they may be waiting for one more recon pass through the center to see how tight it is now. Regardless if they classify it now or not, we all know it is very close, and should be watched closely by all on the Northern Gulf Coast.

[tigergirl]

The rain looks never ending......

[Dave]

[Stormcenter]

Francis anyone?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

the wind field is closed the center is not well defined. recon is out there for a while still and they could find it.. but you remember with irene there was basically nothing for west winds and they upgraded.. not sure what they are waiting for other than a well defined circ.

[BigA]

Subtropical/Hybrid?

Recon is finding lots of west winds, so the circulation is closed, but it is very broad still.

Perhaps technically right now, but all the models that develop 94 L show the storm having tropical characteristics quite soon, so I doubt the NHC would go through the subtropical step if they classify it.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012110
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 30 20110901
210030 2527N 09114W 9592 00445 0084 +261 +236 297008 008 020 000 00
210100 2528N 09113W 9592 00446 0084 +261 +236 293007 007 020 000 00
210130 2529N 09112W 9592 00446 0084 +260 +238 284006 007 019 000 00
210200 2531N 09111W 9592 00445 0084 +261 +233 285006 006 018 000 00
210230 2532N 09110W 9591 00450 0088 +260 +232 279006 006 018 000 00
210300 2533N 09109W 9589 00449 0088 +259 +238 282006 007 019 000 00
210330 2535N 09107W 9593 00446 0086 +259 +234 280007 007 018 000 00
210400 2536N 09106W 9593 00447 0085 +259 +236 276008 008 019 000 00
210430 2537N 09105W 9594 00445 0085 +259 +234 272008 008 018 000 00
210500 2539N 09104W 9585 00451 0084 +259 +231 269008 008 018 000 00
210530 2540N 09102W 9585 00450 0082 +259 +229 257007 007 017 000 00
210600 2541N 09101W 9585 00449 0081 +260 +225 254006 006 017 000 00
210630 2543N 09100W 9585 00449 0081 +261 +222 246006 006 018 000 00
210700 2544N 09058W 9585 00448 0081 +258 +228 242006 007 020 000 00
210730 2545N 09057W 9585 00447 0079 +257 +234 244006 007 019 000 00
210800 2547N 09056W 9586 00452 0080 +258 +228 249006 006 019 000 00
210830 2548N 09054W 9587 00445 0079 +257 +232 260005 005 018 000 00
210900 2549N 09053W 9586 00444 0077 +257 +233 256005 005 019 000 00
210930 2551N 09051W 9588 00442 0077 +257 +235 251004 005 020 000 00
211000 2552N 09050W 9587 00443 0077 +258 +232 245004 004 019 000 00

[BigB0882]

Shear still very apparent. Hate to see what this will do if that goes away.

[Alacane2]

It began raining here in Mobile around 7am this morning. We have had a few bands move through. The last one was very heavy. I almost had to pull over because of the visibility.


Special Weather Statement from National Weather Service Mobile AL

...POTENTIAL EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL TO MATERIALIZE FOR THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...

AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY EVOLVES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IS UNDER A
THREAT FOR EXTREMELY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. IT IS NOT OUT
THE QUESTION FOR SOME AREAS OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA TO RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER ISOLATED AMOUNTS WERE RAINBANDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. A BREAK
DOWN IS GIVEN BELOW.

ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TOMORROW MORNING AND GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. BY SUNSET TOMORROW... TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL LOCALLY....MAINLY WEST OF PENSACOLA AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

LOOKING INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME...RAIN WILL CONTINUE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN COULD FALL...BRING TOTALS UP TO A FORECAST OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM PENSACOLA WEST TO MOBILE...AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10.

FINALLY...THE SITUATION COULD BE FURTHER EXACERBATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AS RELATIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A GULF SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GIVEN
THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW...EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING. DESPITE THIS...IT IS REALIZED THAT OUR REGION
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WITH
THIS...WE COULD EITHER BECOME SITUATED UNDER A DETACHED HEAVY
RAINBAND IF THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST...OR WITHIN HEAVY
RAINBANDS IF THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. EITHER WAY...OUR REGION IS IN
FOR POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT
5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL JUST IN THE SATURDAY EVENING TO
EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME ALONE.

THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING ABOUT ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT EARLIER. THIS COULD EXPAND INTO
AREAL FLOODING EVENTUALLY EVOLVING UPSCALE TO LOCAL COASTAL RIVER
FLOODING BY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY AFFECTED
THE RIVERS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY EARLY
FRIDAY FOR THE PERIOD FROM MID-WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.