ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[craptacular]

AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 05 20110909
161130 2336N 08959W 4097 07391 0383 -151 -200 226010 011 014 001 00
161200 2333N 09001W 4095 07393 0378 -155 -201 214011 011 011 001 00
161230 2331N 09002W 4097 07395 0378 -155 -200 209012 012 008 001 03
161300 2329N 09003W 4097 07398 0383 -155 -200 200014 015 008 002 00
161330 2326N 09005W 4096 07400 0385 -156 -200 201014 014 014 001 00
161400 2324N 09006W 4095 07404 0386 -156 -199 205011 012 013 001 00
161430 2322N 09007W 4095 07402 0385 -157 -199 201011 012 012 001 00
161500 2320N 09008W 4097 07394 0384 -155 -199 203010 010 013 001 03
161530 2317N 09010W 4095 07401 0386 -160 -199 202009 009 012 001 00
161600 2315N 09011W 4096 07405 0389 -160 -199 198009 009 014 002 00
161630 2313N 09012W 4096 07406 0389 -160 -199 197012 013 013 001 00
161700 2310N 09014W 4097 07400 0387 -160 -200 201012 012 015 001 00
161730 2308N 09015W 4097 07403 0389 -160 -200 199011 012 016 000 03
161800 2306N 09016W 4097 07405 0389 -160 -201 202010 010 015 001 03
161830 2303N 09017W 4094 07408 0388 -160 -201 203009 010 014 000 00
161900 2301N 09019W 4095 07400 0388 -160 -203 199010 011 014 001 03
161930 2259N 09020W 4101 07397 0388 -160 -203 198012 012 015 001 00
162000 2257N 09021W 4095 07403 0387 -160 -205 197011 012 014 000 00
162030 2254N 09023W 4095 07407 0387 -160 -205 201008 009 015 000 00
162100 2252N 09024W 4098 07398 0387 -157 -205 203010 010 014 001 00

[wxman57]

wxman57...for the sake of discussion...do you think the cone may shift slightly to the right during the day...if Nate can continue a N..or NNW motion?...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Forget it. The ridge is building back over Texas this weekend. More 100+ temps in store for us next week.

[underthwx]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc11/A ... W.99pc.jpg




Navy sat. pic....Nate appears to be getting better organized...


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[underthwx]

wxman57...for the sake of discussion...do you think the cone may shift slightly to the right during the day...if Nate can continue a N..or NNW motion?...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Forget it. The ridge is building back over Texas this weekend. More 100+ temps in store for us next week.

yes..I understand Nate is not a threat here in TX.....I meant slightly more right on the coast of Mexico...


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[craptacular]

Descending into Nate. First pass should be NE - SW.

URNT15 KNHC 091631
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 06 20110909
162130 2250N 09025W 4095 07403 0387 -155 -205 207009 009 012 002 00
162200 2247N 09026W 4097 07405 0389 -155 -206 211010 011 013 001 00
162230 2245N 09028W 4095 07404 0388 -155 -206 210011 011 014 000 00
162300 2243N 09029W 4095 07400 0389 -155 -206 207010 011 011 000 00
162330 2240N 09030W 4097 07406 0389 -155 -206 202012 013 012 001 00
162400 2238N 09032W 4097 07410 0390 -155 -206 197013 013 015 000 00
162430 2236N 09033W 4155 07299 0384 -150 -206 184012 013 016 001 03
162500 2233N 09034W 4326 06992 0368 -132 -206 179015 017 015 000 00
162530 2231N 09035W 4491 06700 0346 -108 -207 175017 018 018 001 03
162600 2229N 09037W 4668 06403 0325 -090 -204 164013 015 017 000 00
162630 2227N 09038W 4889 06051 0310 -070 -198 139012 013 /// /// 03
162700 2224N 09039W 5099 05715 0289 -050 -191 151013 018 011 000 03
162730 2222N 09040W 5280 05445 0273 -035 -185 162024 025 /// /// 03
162800 2220N 09041W 5487 05134 0254 -012 -178 161025 026 /// /// 03
162830 2218N 09043W 5698 04828 0097 -001 -167 152020 021 /// /// 03
162900 2216N 09044W 5912 04520 0076 +020 -154 157020 021 /// /// 03
162930 2214N 09045W 6130 04260 0109 +039 -141 156021 021 /// /// 03
163000 2212N 09046W 6356 03956 0113 +053 -128 154025 028 /// /// 03
163030 2210N 09047W 6585 03667 0122 +063 -113 161030 031 /// /// 03
163100 2208N 09048W 6825 03370 0121 +079 -099 162030 031 /// /// 03

[wxman57]

yes..I understand Nate is not a threat here in TX.....I meant slightly more right on the coast of Mexico...

Probably not. Satellite indicates it's a bit south of the earlier position. Ridge is building to its north, so it shouldn't gain much latitude.

[artist]

thru obs 06

[clfenwi]

Flights for tomorrow. As I noted earlier, the G-IV and operational P-3 missions were cancelled. A P-3 research mission is scheduled for tomorrow morning, though.

2. TROPICAL STORM NATE.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 77

A. 10/18Z
B. AFXXX 0615A NATE
C. 10/1500Z
D. 20.8N 94.0W
E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 11/00Z
B. AFXXX 0715A NATE
C. 11/0245Z
D. 20.9N 95.0W
E. 10/2330Z TO 11/0300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 091641
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 07 20110909
163130 2206N 09049W 7071 03074 0125 +091 -085 153026 028 /// /// 03
163200 2204N 09050W 7324 02777 0121 +108 -071 148024 025 /// /// 03
163230 2202N 09051W 7582 02484 0130 +114 -057 151029 030 /// /// 03
163300 2200N 09052W 7848 02207 0143 +131 -042 153029 030 /// /// 03
163330 2159N 09053W 8125 01908 0145 +141 -028 139024 025 /// /// 03
163400 2157N 09054W 8334 01694 0147 +151 -017 135024 025 012 001 03
163430 2155N 09055W 8413 01611 0146 +152 -007 130023 024 010 000 00
163500 2154N 09056W 8430 01596 0148 +150 +001 129022 022 011 000 00
163530 2152N 09057W 8429 01597 0147 +150 +008 130022 022 012 001 00
163600 2150N 09058W 8429 01595 0145 +154 +013 133021 021 010 001 00
163630 2149N 09059W 8430 01593 0145 +152 +018 131020 020 012 000 03
163700 2147N 09100W 8445 01580 0145 +154 +024 129020 020 011 001 00
163730 2145N 09100W 8431 01592 0141 +152 +028 127020 020 009 001 00
163800 2144N 09101W 8430 01593 0141 +151 +031 125021 021 008 002 00
163830 2143N 09102W 8428 01596 0140 +155 +034 124021 022 010 002 00
163900 2141N 09103W 8434 01586 0140 +155 +037 124022 023 010 001 00
163930 2140N 09104W 8430 01592 0139 +155 +039 123023 023 014 001 00
164000 2138N 09104W 8429 01595 0137 +155 +041 124023 024 014 000 00
164030 2137N 09105W 8433 01586 0134 +155 +044 121024 025 013 001 03
164100 2136N 09107W 8429 01591 0134 +155 +046 122024 025 014 000 03

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 091651
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 08 20110909
164130 2134N 09108W 8431 01586 0133 +155 +048 121025 026 012 001 00
164200 2133N 09109W 8429 01590 0132 +158 +050 120028 029 011 001 00
164230 2132N 09110W 8429 01589 0130 +162 +052 123032 033 014 001 00
164300 2131N 09112W 8430 01588 0130 +158 +054 130031 032 011 001 00
164330 2130N 09113W 8422 01592 0132 +154 +057 131031 033 013 001 03
164400 2129N 09114W 8430 01585 0129 +161 +059 133033 035 016 001 00
164430 2127N 09115W 8430 01585 0128 +160 +061 133034 035 017 000 00
164500 2126N 09117W 8430 01585 0125 +160 +063 133036 036 015 001 00
164530 2125N 09118W 8428 01585 0127 +160 +064 132036 037 018 001 00
164600 2124N 09119W 8430 01584 0125 +160 +065 133038 039 019 000 00
164630 2123N 09121W 8428 01586 0123 +160 +066 132038 038 018 000 00
164700 2122N 09122W 8428 01584 0124 +160 +066 132038 038 019 001 00
164730 2120N 09123W 8431 01580 0117 +169 +067 138039 039 021 001 00
164800 2119N 09124W 8429 01581 0117 +168 +068 139039 039 021 000 00
164830 2118N 09125W 8430 01580 0116 +170 +069 138039 039 021 001 00
164900 2117N 09127W 8429 01581 0112 +173 +071 138035 037 023 000 00
164930 2116N 09128W 8430 01581 0110 +175 +073 140034 034 022 001 03
165000 2115N 09129W 8428 01580 0110 +173 +075 136034 035 022 001 00
165030 2114N 09130W 8430 01579 0113 +169 +077 132034 035 025 001 00
165100 2112N 09132W 8429 01580 0110 +170 +079 134033 034 025 002 00

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 091701
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 09 20110909
165130 2111N 09133W 8432 01573 0110 +169 +081 135034 034 027 000 00
165200 2110N 09134W 8429 01579 0111 +167 +083 134035 035 027 000 00
165230 2109N 09135W 8434 01571 0104 +172 +085 139036 037 027 001 03
165300 2108N 09137W 8429 01573 0101 +175 +086 139037 037 028 001 00
165330 2107N 09138W 8429 01573 0099 +178 +087 135037 037 028 002 00
165400 2106N 09139W 8432 01571 0098 +180 +089 133037 038 026 002 00
165430 2104N 09140W 8429 01572 0094 +180 +091 129038 038 028 001 03
165500 2103N 09142W 8433 01566 0098 +170 +093 128036 037 029 000 03
165530 2102N 09143W 8435 01561 0098 +171 +095 128037 037 028 001 00
165600 2101N 09144W 8436 01560 0091 +180 +096 129039 040 028 002 00
165630 2100N 09145W 8427 01569 0093 +174 +097 127038 038 029 001 00
165700 2058N 09147W 8431 01564 0099 +162 +099 126035 036 029 000 00
165730 2057N 09148W 8429 01565 0103 +156 +101 126035 036 030 001 00
165800 2056N 09149W 8429 01565 0096 +164 +100 125037 037 030 001 00
165830 2055N 09150W 8428 01567 0098 +161 +099 125037 037 031 001 00
165900 2054N 09152W 8430 01565 0100 +156 +099 126036 037 031 001 00
165930 2053N 09153W 8431 01561 0100 +155 +099 124036 036 029 001 03
170000 2051N 09154W 8429 01564 0098 +155 +098 124036 036 030 001 00
170030 2050N 09156W 8430 01558 0097 +158 +098 123035 036 030 001 00
170100 2049N 09157W 8430 01557 0096 +157 +097 122035 036 031 002 00

[artist]

obs 07-09

[craptacular]

Approaching NHC estimated center.

URNT15 KNHC 091711
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 10 20110909
170130 2048N 09158W 8429 01554 0093 +159 +097 122035 035 030 001 03
170200 2047N 09159W 8429 01558 0092 +157 +096 121035 036 030 001 00
170230 2045N 09201W 8432 01553 0090 +158 +095 118033 034 030 003 00
170300 2044N 09202W 8429 01555 0090 +155 +095 114033 033 029 004 00
170330 2043N 09203W 8429 01554 0091 +155 +094 112031 032 030 004 00
170400 2042N 09205W 8430 01548 0089 +153 +092 118031 032 027 003 00
170430 2041N 09206W 8429 01550 0086 +155 +090 117032 033 025 002 00
170500 2039N 09207W 8432 01545 0086 +155 +088 121033 034 021 002 00
170530 2038N 09209W 8429 01548 0083 +156 +085 120034 036 017 001 00
170600 2037N 09210W 8429 01547 0083 +155 +083 123035 035 014 002 00
170630 2036N 09211W 8429 01546 0081 +156 +082 123036 036 014 001 00
170700 2035N 09212W 8429 01544 0079 +155 +082 123036 037 015 000 00
170730 2033N 09214W 8428 01543 0076 +158 +083 123037 038 015 001 03
170800 2032N 09215W 8429 01541 0073 +160 +085 124039 039 011 002 00
170830 2031N 09216W 8430 01539 0069 +163 +086 122039 039 014 001 03
170900 2029N 09217W 8430 01536 0065 +165 +088 122038 039 015 000 00
170930 2028N 09218W 8429 01532 0062 +166 +090 123039 039 016 001 00
171000 2027N 09219W 8429 01533 0058 +170 +092 122039 039 017 002 00
171030 2025N 09220W 8429 01530 0053 +170 +095 121039 039 019 000 00
171100 2024N 09221W 8430 01527 0052 +172 +097 123037 039 018 001 00

[artist]

obs 10

[artist]

wide view

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 091721
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 11 20110909
171130 2023N 09222W 8430 01523 0046 +177 +100 129033 035 019 001 00
171200 2021N 09223W 8428 01525 0042 +180 +102 134032 032 019 002 00
171230 2020N 09224W 8430 01521 0039 +181 +104 132032 032 016 002 00
171300 2019N 09225W 8432 01518 0036 +182 +107 137033 035 012 001 00
171330 2018N 09226W 8429 01519 0035 +178 +109 140036 036 013 002 00
171400 2016N 09227W 8430 01515 0035 +174 +112 141034 036 013 001 03
171430 2015N 09228W 8428 01515 0033 +170 +114 141030 032 018 002 03
171500 2014N 09230W 8432 01509 0029 +174 +116 142027 028 008 001 00
171530 2013N 09231W 8429 01511 0029 +173 +117 139028 028 008 000 00
171600 2012N 09232W 8430 01507 0027 +175 +118 139025 026 002 001 03
171630 2011N 09233W 8429 01508 0025 +174 +118 137023 023 001 000 03
171700 2009N 09234W 8432 01504 0022 +175 +118 140023 023 001 001 03
171730 2008N 09235W 8429 01504 0019 +175 +118 137023 024 001 001 03
171800 2007N 09237W 8429 01501 0016 +179 +118 136023 024 002 001 03
171830 2006N 09238W 8430 01499 0012 +180 +117 140022 023 001 002 03
171900 2004N 09239W 8429 01497 0010 +180 +118 137021 022 002 002 03
171930 2003N 09240W 8430 01495 0008 +180 +118 136020 020 002 001 03
172000 2002N 09241W 8429 01492 0008 +177 +118 141018 019 002 002 03
172030 2001N 09242W 8430 01489 0008 +171 +118 151016 016 003 002 03
172100 1959N 09243W 8430 01493 0006 +173 +119 163015 015 000 002 03

[artist]

obs 11

[craptacular]

Recon just passed 20N on it's first NE - SW pass, and hadn't hit the center yet. Seems to match latest visible imagery.

[craptacular]

VDM should be coming ... it's now south of 20N

URNT15 KNHC 091732
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 12 20110909
172130 1959N 09245W 8420 01498 0005 +171 +119 162013 013 001 001 03
172200 1958N 09246W 8431 01485 0004 +168 +119 166012 013 000 002 03
172230 1957N 09248W 8428 01486 9999 +175 +119 165006 008 000 002 03
172300 1956N 09249W 8430 01481 9998 +170 +119 299004 007 000 002 03
172330 1956N 09251W 8430 01485 0001 +170 +119 324011 013 000 001 03
172400 1955N 09253W 8430 01485 0005 +170 +119 325015 015 002 002 03
172430 1954N 09254W 8430 01489 0005 +170 +118 322017 018 001 004 03
172500 1953N 09255W 8428 01491 0009 +168 +117 318018 018 007 002 00
172530 1951N 09256W 8432 01488 0008 +173 +116 323019 020 005 002 03
172600 1950N 09257W 8431 01491 0013 +168 +115 314020 021 011 000 00
172630 1949N 09259W 8430 01494 0016 +170 +114 319022 022 012 000 00
172700 1948N 09300W 8429 01497 0020 +165 +114 316024 025 019 002 00
172730 1947N 09301W 8426 01504 0023 +163 +113 316028 030 023 002 00
172800 1945N 09302W 8430 01502 0023 +166 +110 320028 029 024 002 00
172830 1944N 09304W 8429 01504 0026 +167 +108 321029 030 026 001 00
172900 1943N 09305W 8432 01504 0029 +165 +109 320030 030 030 002 00
172930 1942N 09306W 8428 01509 0033 +165 +110 321031 031 029 007 00
173000 1941N 09307W 8430 01513 0040 +158 +110 325033 035 034 008 00
173030 1939N 09309W 8431 01514 0048 +150 +108 320038 039 037 016 03
173100 1938N 09310W 8428 01517 0054 +145 +102 317035 035 041 019 03

[artist]

obs 12