ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Off of Jacksonville:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107161734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 300N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Ivanhater]

[Hurricaneman]

looks sheared at the moment

[Ivanhater]

When available

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 161737
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1737 UTC SAT JUL 16 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110716 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110716  1800   110717  0600   110717  1800   110718  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.0N  79.1W   29.9N  79.8W   29.7N  80.8W   29.4N  82.0W
BAMD    30.0N  79.1W   29.4N  79.0W   28.6N  79.4W   27.8N  80.1W
BAMM    30.0N  79.1W   29.7N  79.6W   29.2N  80.3W   28.5N  81.4W
LBAR    30.0N  79.1W   29.6N  79.0W   29.8N  79.5W   30.7N  80.0W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          27KTS          30KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          27KTS          26KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110718  1800   110719  1800   110720  1800   110721  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.1N  83.3W   28.2N  85.2W   27.7N  86.2W   27.9N  86.6W
BAMD    27.3N  81.1W   26.7N  83.5W   26.6N  85.9W   27.2N  88.4W
BAMM    28.0N  82.6W   27.2N  84.9W   27.0N  86.3W   27.3N  87.3W
LBAR    31.6N  80.9W   33.0N  82.2W   33.5N  80.4W   34.8N  76.9W
SHIP        33KTS          35KTS          36KTS          35KTS
DSHP        26KTS          32KTS          33KTS          32KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  30.0N LONCUR =  79.1W DIRCUR = 140DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  30.7N LONM12 =  79.7W DIRM12 = 139DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  31.3N LONM24 =  80.4W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Ivanhater]

Possibly Gulf bound

[northjaxpro]

As of current, 98L is approximately 100 miles east of Jacksonville Beach.

[Aric Dunn]

Close up sat loop. not a floater but until we get one it will work.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/flash-rgb.html

[Weatherfreak000]

I like development chances here, and 20% immediately from NHC is pretty nice as well.


Is this still supposed to migrate to the GOM?

[Hurricaneman]

I like development chances here, and 20% immediately from NHC is pretty nice as well.


Is this still supposed to migrate to the GOM?

yes and if the models are correct parts of Texas will get some needed rain

[Aric Dunn]

I like development chances here, and 20% immediately from NHC is pretty nice as well.


Is this still supposed to migrate to the GOM?

depends on how far south the MLC drops south and if we get a second low form farther east. among other things

[Weatherfreak000]

Prelim models from the BAM suites suggesting this will migrate west across Florida into the NGOM....guess that means this might stay weak.

[northjaxpro]

NHC is stating that 98L will just drift and meander south in the short term. The GFS run earlier has 98L moving very slowly toward the FL coast up to 72 hours. But that was earlier today.

Much will be in the details in future model runs. 98L looks to meander around at least through the weekend just off the NE FL coast.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
That is rather interesting. Clearly the longer it has until it crosses FL the more likely it will be to develop.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Could be wrong, but thought I read in some areas discussion earlier stating if a low were to form it would move west for a day or two then turn NE.

[dixiebreeze]

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 161715
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
115 PM EDT SAT 16 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 17/1615Z
D. 29.2N 78.6W
E. 17/1815Z TO 17/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/0600
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/0300Z
D. 29.0N 78.5W
E. 18/0500Z TO 18/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY
FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

[Rgv20]

17zRuc has the 500mb vorticity moving south thru 18hrs.

Ruc Initialize



Forecast for 18hrs.


Thought I would look at the RUC since the global models did not initialize the invest that well.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like it's being taken seriously.