ATL : GERT - Remnants - Discussion

Meso · #1 Postby **Meso** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:53 am

AL94, 250N 536W, 25kts, 1013mb, DB INVEST

Invest 94L on NRL

Aric Dunn · #2 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:03 am

not surprised. this mornings visible imagery is indicating that decent LLC is forming or has formed. could take less time to develop that first thought.

most models keep it under the strong ridge missing the trough that picks up 92L. so should be a interesting track..

#3 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:04 am

Might have another invest before the morning is over.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:08 am

Is somewhat confusing posting TWO'S for four different systems.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

#5 Postby **SFLcane** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:14 am

Aric Dunn wrote:not surprised. this mornings visible imagery is indicating that decent LLC is forming or has formed. could take less time to develop that first thought.

most models keep it under the strong ridge missing the trough that picks up 92L. so should be a interesting track..

Trough of low pressure coming off the east coast next week should turn this pretty quickly of to the NE.

Meso · #6 Postby **Meso** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:17 am

Might have another invest before the morning is over.

Not yet on NRL but: BEST TRACK: AL95, 348N 668W, 25kts, 0mb, DB

:double:

#7 Postby **Extratropical94** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:22 am

Congratulations tolakram, 6 minutes between your post and the update of the 95L.invest best track file.
Nice job

Aric Dunn · #8 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:28 am

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:not surprised. this mornings visible imagery is indicating that decent LLC is forming or has formed. could take less time to develop that first thought.

most models keep it under the strong ridge missing the trough that picks up 92L. so should be a interesting track..

Trough of low pressure coming off the east coast next week should turn this pretty quickly of to the NE.

actually the GFS runs the 500mb vort into cuba. the present ridging that it is moving around shifts west as the trough lifts out and traps the system while east of there 92L lifts through the weakness.

cpdaman · #9 Postby **cpdaman** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:38 am

Nice. Somethin to follow right off the bat. Back in fl for at least fall. Do conditions /shear / ull placements seem favorable.

dwsqos2 · #10 Postby **dwsqos2** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:41 am

I think it's depressing that on August 12 this is the most impressive feature in the entire Atlantic basin.

Aric Dunn · #11 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:43 am

hehe.. funny

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Aric Dunn · #12 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:44 am

well the floater is up... just have not changed positions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:48 am

Hi folks, just checking in. Indeed I suspected this would be an invest and provided feedback in the Emily threads yesterday, though I was suprised there was not much traffic in that thread yesterday given this area.

Will monitor this area and provide new guidance once I take a look at things out there. I would expect a WSW movement as it rounds the SE periphery of a stubborn subtropical ridge anchored north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:05 am

12z Best Track for 94L

AL, 94, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 247N, 547W, 25, 1013, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

#15 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:50 am

Not really expecting much from this blob.

#16 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 9:09 am

Possible Recon

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 12 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 14/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 59.0W.
3. REMARKS: FOLLOW-ON FLIGHT ON 15 AUG AT 18Z NEAR 28N 64W. THEN
12 HOURLY REQUIREMENTS AFTER THAT. POSSIBLE TASKING ON
SUBSEQUENT ATLANTIC SYSTEM ON 16 AUG. ---CORRECTED

#17 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 9:31 am

Got my eye on this one..Waiting for 12Z NAM to update as it did well picking up on this feature a few days ago...

#18 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:16 am

Despite the dry air surrounding 94L and a bit of shear, looking at visible satellite imagery, there is definitely a pronounced low level surface reflection as it drifts west or west/southwest.

94L is also very small presently. I am not expecting much development the next 24 to 48 hours, but if it can stay intact by the end of the weekend, this feature may be something to really monitor heading into the start of next week.

#19 Postby **Jevo** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:42 am

Looks like our pal SAL is setting up his wall of defense north of PR/DR.. 94L better call in some heavys if he plans on making it through it unscathed

#20 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:48 am

No question, the SAL has been prominent lately in the ATL basin. It has really been persistent the last week or so. It is making most of these tropical waves hard to sustain themselves right now.

ATL : GERT - Remnants - Discussion

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