18Z advisory roundup:
ZCZC 085
WTPQ51 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 26.4N 138.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 27.8N 137.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 011800UTC 30.0N 137.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 021800UTC 34.4N 137.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 031800UTC 41.9N 138.7E 350NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
120HF 041800UTC 50.5N 142.6E 450NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT =
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 26.5N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 138.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.2N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.0N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.2N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 30.6N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 34.7N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 39.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 46.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 138.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A SHALLOWER BAND OF
CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 30/1632Z
AMSR-E IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WHICH REMAIN DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
A 30/1217Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY DEPICTS THE EXPANSIVE WIND RADII. TS
15W IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF TS 15W, AND
THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-NORHTWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TS 15W
TO TURN POLEWARD BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48. TS 15W SHOULD SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER BUT MAINTAINS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALOFT. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST HONSHU BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT TRACKS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND JAPAN AND BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINC ZONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER TAU 72 AND BE COMPLETED BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND REMAINS SPREAD,
WITH NOGAPS AND EGRR SUGGESTING A LANDFALL NEAR KYUSHU WITH JGSM
FORECASTING A TRACK EAST OF KYOTO. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS SPREAD
EVENLY BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS, EACH FORECASTING A DIFFERENT
RESPONSE TO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING
OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TS 15W. THIS FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION AND
ANTICIPATED WEAKER INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM WHICH THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A 300101Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY DEPICTS THE
EXPANSIVE WIND RADII. TS 15W IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW,
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CENTRAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A 30/00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM CHICHI JIMA SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TS 15W
TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND TAU 36. TS 15W SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS OVER WARM WATER BUT MAINTAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT.
C. TS 15W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO BY TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MAINLAND JAPAN, BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINC ZONE, AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN THE
FORECAST OF THE DEPTH OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
NOGAPS, UKMO, AND GFS ANALYZE A WEAKER TROUGH AND THEREFORE,
MAINTAIN A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, JGSM AND
ECMWF PREDICT GREATER WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE LATTER SCENARIO WITH A FASTER POLEWARD TURN.//
NNNN
TXPQ26 KNES 302117
TCSWNP
A. 15W (TALAS)
B. 30/2032Z
C. 26.7N
D. 138.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...BROKEN BANDING OF 6/10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT 0F
3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GUILLOT
Actually, I think all the agencies think similarly, in that they don't intensify the system much beyond its present strength. See JMA as an example; they only increase the strength by 5kt. JTWC's increase by 20kt seems to be the outlier, and I agree that given the continued lack of a solid inner core that further intensification will be difficult.
