WPAC: INVEST 93W

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cycloneye
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WPAC: INVEST 93W

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 4:32 am

93W INVEST 220528 0600 4.2N 134.7E WPAC 15 1010


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 29, 2022 1:14 am

Now low, models don't even make it to a TS though
ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZMAY2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N
132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. A 290317Z ANIMATED
MULTISPECTUAL SATELLEITE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED, PERSISTING
CONVECTION WITH A POORLY ORGNIZED LLC. A 290109Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A PATCH OF 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
AREA. ENVIROMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C). GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK GENEREALLY
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby Grifforzer » Sun May 29, 2022 7:51 pm

RSMC Tokyo

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 8.0N 130.0E WNW SLOWLY
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby Grifforzer » Sun May 29, 2022 10:10 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 300000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 127E WNW SLOWLY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 11:06 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#6 Postby wxman57 » Mon May 30, 2022 3:20 pm

Scatterometer data indicate a trough. No well-defined LLC. Not much chance of it developing.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#7 Postby ManilaTC » Tue May 31, 2022 1:38 am

93W is no longer showing in the Best Track, JMA and TMD weather maps...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Tue May 31, 2022 1:57 am

ManilaTC wrote:93W is no longer showing in the Best Track, JMA and TMD weather maps...

No TC formed on May but a minor TD, even though we have a favorable MJO... unlike 2021, it had 2 TS, one unofficial and one official. Maybe June would make up for it :?:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!

ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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