WPAC: INVEST 92W

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 260119 1800 4.0N 148.0E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191221ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 19JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 128.1E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW
192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N
146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM WEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING 92W,
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE AGREEABLE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT 92W
WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.