WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Subtrop]

95W INVEST 260304 0600 4.9N 152.5E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N
145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC FLARING CONVECTION. A
052303Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SOME HIGHER
WINDS IN THE UPPER RIGHT QUADRANTS WITH SOME 15 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND THE AMERICAN MODELS ARE SHOWING
A MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.1N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BROAD TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE HESITANT IN THE FORMATION OF 95W WITH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING SCATTERED. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SIMILARLY SCATTERED WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING AN
ELONGATED WIND FIELD AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE MARIANAS ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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