WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ51 ‎RJTD ‎051800
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2526 ‎FUNG-WONG ‎(2526) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎051800UTC ‎10.2N ‎142.1E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎998HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎240NM ‎NORTHEAST ‎180NM ‎SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎061800UTC ‎11.6N ‎139.9E ‎50NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎992HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT
48HF ‎ ‎071800UTC ‎13.4N ‎135.8E ‎85NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎985HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎055KT
GUST ‎ ‎080KT
72HF ‎ ‎081800UTC ‎14.9N ‎129.6E ‎120NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎965HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎075KT
GUST ‎ ‎105KT
96HF ‎ ‎091800UTC ‎17.0N ‎123.6E ‎150NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎940HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎090KT
GUST ‎ ‎130KT
120HF ‎101800UTC ‎18.0N ‎120.1E ‎180NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎965HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎075KT
GUST ‎ ‎105KT ‎=

[Teban54]

The storm has been named Fung-wong, a name contributed by Hong Kong. In Cantonese, it means Phoenix.

The same spelling can also represent the phrase “Lord of the Wind”, though it is pronounced differently.

Quite ominous...

[aspen]

Fung-Wong is enormous. The circulation and associated bands/outflow extends over 15 degrees longitude — a little over 1,000 miles across.

It’s still hard to tell at this early stage, but the developing core seems to be extremely large too. I think this may end up as a large eye Cat 3/4, with an even larger eye than Ragasa.

[cycloneye]

[dexterlabio]

Its circulation and moisture envelope can cover almost the entire Philippine archipelago. I imagine it would require immense energy to have this entire thing spin up and get really intense winds at its core.

[doomhaMwx]

The LLCC was a bit more south than what JTWC and JMA analyzed at 00Z (10.2N and 10.4N, respectively). Might nudge those forecast tracks further south.

[cycloneye]

The LLCC was a bit more south than what JTWC and JMA analyzed at 00Z (10.2N and 10.4N, respectively). Might nudge those forecast tracks further south.

https://i.imgur.com/yXSuxAk.png
https://i.imgur.com/0F8Kf1o.png

And that south move of track occured.

[cycloneye]

Josh going to chase it.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1986372619449286681

[GCANE]

Chasers are converging

 https://x.com/JordanHallWX/status/1986286630110699963

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is converging on the CoC.
Convection is slowing wrapping around 360-degrees.

Looks like it will begin ingesting dry TPW air in about 24hrs.
Front coming down from the north may minimize the effect on Fung-Wong and help fill in the dry slot with some moist air.

70% chance of RI in 24 hrs

AMSU showing a 2C warm core with an offset boundary-layer inversion.
Likely that inversion will dissipate within 24 hrs.

Warm-core signature starting to appear on IR satellite.

Western-quad eyewall appears to be building as indicated by a very strong return on 37GHz down-looking radar.
Good precipitation rate is also indicated.

Majority of the models now have a low-end Cat4 landfall.

Looks like Manila will miss the brunt of this.
Cities in Luzon that could take a direct hit include Baler and Casiguran.

JTWC currently has it at 10.58N 139.63E at 11:40Z

[Hayabusa]

JMA 12z gave 3.0, but still they might not upgrade to STS

[Hayabusa]

Well they upgraded it

T2526(Fung-wong)
Issued at 2025/11/06 13:05 UTC
Analysis at 11/06 12 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°30′ (10.5°)
E139°25′ (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 440 km (240 NM)

[Hayabusa]

JTWC remains at 40

32W FUNG-WONG 251106 1200 10.2N 139.6E WPAC 40 995

[cycloneye]

Landfall as cat 4.

[mrbagyo]

really consolidating now

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986437722676904105

[GCANE]

Hot tower going up just west of the CoC

[cycloneye]

TXPQ22 KNES 061800
TCSWNP

A. 32W (FUNG-WONG)

B. 06/1730Z

C. 10.8N

D. 139.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/MHS

H. REMARKS...8.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED
ON A DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to 55 kt.

32W FUNG-WONG 251107 0000 11.4N 137.9E WPAC 55 991

JMA at 60 kt.

2526(Fung-wong)
Issued at 2025/11/07 01:10 UTC
Analysis at 11/07 00 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°30′ (11.5°)
E138°10′ (138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 110 km (60 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 440 km (240 NM)