WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/extremeweath3r/status/1660804929295106049

[Hurricane2022]

I think this is around 125 kt now

[cycloneye]

Moving to the NW now.

[shah83]

This looks like it will have military deterrence and preparedness implications.

[sikkar]

Watching storms intensify in real time on radar is something else.

[dexterlabio]

Whats crazier is the models showing that the real intensification phase would happen after tracking over Guam, but that appears to be already happening. I can only imagine what it will look like in a more conducive environment in the Philippine Sea (barring a 'destructive' EWRC).

[Hayabusa]

18z still more north but still showing west trackers

[Teban54]

[cycloneye]

Cat 4.

WP, 02, 2023052300, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1469E, 115, 947, TY

[aspen]

Cat 4.

WP, 02, 2023052300, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1469E, 115, 947, TY

Too low. Mawar is probably in the 125-130 kt range. Its CDO has rapidly become very symmetrical and smooth, and there’s even a stadium effect showing up in the eye.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Cat 4.

WP, 02, 2023052300, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1469E, 115, 947, TY

Real quick, do you have a working link to the ATCF directory that provides the BTK information you just posted? The one I have bookmarked is only pulling up blank directories all of a sudden - it never used to be like this, not sure what is going on.

[cycloneye]

Cat 4.

WP, 02, 2023052300, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1469E, 115, 947, TY

Real quick, do you have a working link to the ATCF directory that provides the BTK information you just posted? The one I have bookmarked is only pulling up blank directories all of a sudden - it never used to be like this, not sure what is going on.

It has for all the basins.

https://syoung.x10.mx/satellite/chrome/ ... cfzrb_0G6c

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Cat 4.

WP, 02, 2023052300, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1469E, 115, 947, TY

Real quick, do you have a working link to the ATCF directory that provides the BTK information you just posted? The one I have bookmarked is only pulling up blank directories all of a sudden - it never used to be like this, not sure what is going on.

It has for all the basins.

https://syoung.x10.mx/satellite/chrome/ ... cfzrb_0G6c

Thank you so much! Bookmarking it now.

[AJC3]

When was the last major cane that moved thru or close to Guam in May?

WP, 02, 2023052218, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1468E, 100, 960, TY

As we discussed elsewhere a little earlier, I'm pretty sure it's Pamela (21 May 1976). Direct hit on the island...

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 146.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER RI ALONG WITH AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS A RELATIVELY
SMALL 14 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN
TRACK. THIS BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN ADDITION, A 222046Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLES OF THE LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ANDERSEN AIR FORCE
BASE (PGUA) SHOWS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER
GUAM, ROTA, AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, AS WELL AS THE EYE OF
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING GUAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MOREOVER, RECENT
SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN AFB INDICATE CONSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ANALYSIS OF THE 222047Z CIMSS M-PERC EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT TOOL INDICATES AN ERC IS TAKING PLACE. TC MAWAR IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, A PRONOUNCED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, AS WELL AS THE
ABOVEMENTIONED RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 115 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF A BLEND
OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 107 KTS AT 222047Z
CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 230130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
OTHER FACTORS: RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER RI
ALONG WITH AN ERC. TC 02W IS RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST. DURING TAUS 12 THROUGH 24, TC MAWAR WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 125 KNOTS AS THE STORM
CENTER MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF GUAM. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE HIGHER THAN
125 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AS DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ON A CLIMBING
TREND. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, TC MAWAR WILL MAKE THE TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF GUAM AS THE STR TO
THE EAST BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTH. THIS STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND CONTINUE TO
STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN ADDITION,
THE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING INTO A FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL LEND A HAND TO INCREASE INTENSIFICATION. AS
A RESULT, TC MAWAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 135 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
BY TAU 120, TC 02W WILL BEGIN TO MAKE THE APPROACH TO THE STR AXIS
AND HEAD ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT TC MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MAKE THE TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36. IN
THE SHORT TERM, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING A 15 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 THAT GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 32 NM
BY TAU 24, AND 50 NM BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASE TO
109 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, THE
JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD
OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS DISPLAYS A 20 KNOT
SPREAD THROUGH TAU 36, MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASES
INTO THE LATER TAUS. HOWEVER, THEY DO AGREE WITH AN INCREASING
SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

Wow what a beast

[Guamphoon]

If this track holds, I might be in the eye tomorrow. What are the chances the EWRC JTWC is mentioning will weaken the storm at this point?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

If this track holds, I might be in the eye tomorrow. What are the chances the EWRC JTWC is mentioning will weaken the storm at this point?

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0223.gif

Please stay safe...

[aspen]

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 146.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER RI ALONG WITH AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS A RELATIVELY
SMALL 14 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN
TRACK. THIS BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN ADDITION, A 222046Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLES OF THE LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ANDERSEN AIR FORCE
BASE (PGUA) SHOWS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER
GUAM, ROTA, AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, AS WELL AS THE EYE OF
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING GUAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MOREOVER, RECENT
SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN AFB INDICATE CONSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ANALYSIS OF THE 222047Z CIMSS M-PERC EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT TOOL INDICATES AN ERC IS TAKING PLACE. TC MAWAR IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, A PRONOUNCED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, AS WELL AS THE
ABOVEMENTIONED RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 115 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF A BLEND
OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 107 KTS AT 222047Z
CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 230130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
OTHER FACTORS: RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER RI
ALONG WITH AN ERC. TC 02W IS RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST. DURING TAUS 12 THROUGH 24, TC MAWAR WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 125 KNOTS AS THE STORM
CENTER MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF GUAM. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE HIGHER THAN
125 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AS DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ON A CLIMBING
TREND. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, TC MAWAR WILL MAKE THE TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF GUAM AS THE STR TO
THE EAST BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTH. THIS STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND CONTINUE TO
STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN ADDITION,
THE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING INTO A FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL LEND A HAND TO INCREASE INTENSIFICATION. AS
A RESULT, TC MAWAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 135 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
BY TAU 120, TC 02W WILL BEGIN TO MAKE THE APPROACH TO THE STR AXIS
AND HEAD ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT TC MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MAKE THE TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36. IN
THE SHORT TERM, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING A 15 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 THAT GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 32 NM
BY TAU 24, AND 50 NM BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASE TO
109 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, THE
JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD
OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS DISPLAYS A 20 KNOT
SPREAD THROUGH TAU 36, MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASES
INTO THE LATER TAUS. HOWEVER, THEY DO AGREE WITH AN INCREASING
SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

I’m surprised the satellite estimates are so low and the JTWC stuck with 115 kt when Mawar has such a symmetrical structure and CMG ring. The JTWC revised the last BT estimate to something higher and better, I was thinking they’d do the same with Mawar’s increasing organization. This under-estimation reminds me a lot of recent EPac Cat 4s like Douglas and Darby, which had pronounced stadium effects and super-symmetric CDOs, but were assessed as being lower Cat 4s due to low satellite estimates.

[Sciencerocks]