WPAC: CO-MAY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Looks well on its way to becoming a typhoon, 40 kts it's likely too low. Doesn't have much time but should easily make it to at least Cat 1 at this rate.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60kt.

11W CO-MAY 250723 1800 16.9N 118.0E WPAC 60 981

[Hurricane2022]

Up to 60kt.

11W CO-MAY 250723 1800 16.9N 118.0E WPAC 60 981

JMA still dead at 35 kt. Filipinos are lucky to have PAGASA as their official source of weather information. JMA sometimes looks suicidal with these estimates

[cycloneye]

Yikes. Landfall at 85kts.

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

Up to Typhoon.

11W CO-MAY 250724 0000 16.2N 118.6E WPAC 70 975

[Hurricane2022]

Up to Typhoon.

11W CO-MAY 250724 0000 16.2N 118.6E WPAC 70 975

JMA only at 40 kt right now!!!

[cycloneye]

JMA to 50kts.

T2508(Co-may)
Issued at 2025/07/24 01:10 UTC
Analysis at 07/24 00 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°30′ (16.5°)
E117°55′ (117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement SSE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area SW330 km (180 NM)
NE220 km (120 NM)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1948204001633423499

[cycloneye]

[dexterlabio]

If we were in a classic El Niño year, these three simultaneous TCs in the WPAC right now would have easily become Cat3 + typhoons.

[Hayabusa]

Landfall shifted again (to south)

[Hayabusa]

Down to 60 kts

11W CO-MAY 250724 1200 16.2N 119.6E WPAC 60 974

[Hayabusa]

Down to 60 kts

11W CO-MAY 250724 1200 16.2N 119.6E WPAC 60 974

Revised to 65

11W CO-MAY 250724 1200 16.1N 119.5E WPAC 65 976

[cycloneye]

[mrbagyo]

Landfall over Agno, Pangasinan

 https://x.com/arielrojasPH/status/1948401439241547807

[Hayabusa]

JMA up to typhoon

T2508(Co-may)
Issued at 2025/07/24 19:05 UTC
Analysis at 07/24 18 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°55′ (16.9°)
E119°50′ (119.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 85 km (45 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area S390 km (210 NM)
N220 km (120 NM)

[sasha_B]

JMA up to typhoon

T2508(Co-may)
Issued at 2025/07/24 19:05 UTC
Analysis at 07/24 18 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°55′ (16.9°)
E119°50′ (119.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 85 km (45 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area S390 km (210 NM)
N220 km (120 NM)

Meanwhile JTWC goes down from typhoon to TS:

11W CO-MAY 250724 1800 16.7N 120.2E WPAC 60 980

[cycloneye]

T2508(Co-may)
Issued at 2025/07/25 00:50 UTC
Analysis at 07/25 00 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°00′ (18.0°)
E120°05′ (120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 75 km (40 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area S390 km (210 NM)
N220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

JTWC's 00z has the center over land while JMA is off the west coast