WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Kalmaegi is a very compact system. It could either fizzle or intensify pretty fast.

It's starting to spin, and I feel the JMA's forecast is too conservative. Worried we are underestimating the storm

Stay safe, xtyphooncyclonex!!!
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984727053355438334


 https://x.com/JavaHurricane/status/1984724725218570626

[Hayabusa]

Looking pretty good with that curved banding, could be an STS by 00z

[Hayabusa]

New peak again could be a major by 03/18z
18z FNV3-mean has it peaking as a STY before landfall

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Increasingly worried for the entire Visayas, but most especially for Northern Cebu. They experienced a 6.9 earthquake a month ago and many of them do not have permanent, safe places to stay but tents. This is the last thing we could ask for.

[mrbagyo]

TyphoonHunter is on the prowl again
Aussie chaser also going for it

 https://twitter.com/OreboundImages/status/1984796030198825425




18z GDM expects a Cat 4 landfall at the minimum. Visayas cant catch a break

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not sure how reliable DeepMind is, but it did well with Melissa.

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1984791045373100307

[mrbagyo]

Not sure how reliable DeepMind is, but it did well with Melissa.

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1984791045373100307

It's "dominating" in the Atlantic, track error is actually even better than Official NHC forecast. GFS is basically "trash"

No model still can exactly nail the intensity though

[ejeraldmc]

The storm looks like a mess and it's accelerating towards land. I doubt it has time to become Cat 5.

[mrbagyo]

The storm looks like a mess and it's accelerating towards land. I doubt it has time to become Cat 5.

Northeasterly shear seems to be bugging it

[dexterlabio]

Might be some core issues but I don't think it's a total mess. It's still got a defined banding feature.

[doomhaMwx]

Not sure how reliable DeepMind is, but it did well with Melissa.

https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/19 ... 00307?s=19

It's "dominating" in the Atlantic, track error is actually even better than Official NHC forecast. GFS is basically "trash"

No model still can exactly nail the intensity though

Something to be wary about when it comes to DeepMind rapid intensification solutions:

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1974664120671887522

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

Issued at 2025/11/02 12:45 UTC
Analysis at 11/02 12 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°30′ (11.5°)
E131°05′ (131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 165 km (90 NM)

[mrbagyo]

finally a pretty decent microwave pass

[Hurricane2022]

We need to put a speed limit warning there

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1985029452988829945

[Hayabusa]

12z Hwrf cat 4 and hfsa cat 3 before landfall

[mrbagyo]

starting to look decent

[Hayabusa]

Kalmaegi has 24 hours left to fully take advantage of the favorable environment

[Hayabusa]

12Z FNV3 mean cat 4 landfall