WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[doomhaMwx]

Looking at radar imagery, it seems that the tiny core threaded between Homonhon and Dinagat Islands.

[mrbagyo]

Plotted the pressure of three AWS between Homonhon and Dinagat Island.
Only the San Jose, Dinagat AWS is still online but the pressure is now rising

Lowest pressure recorded in Homonhon - 986.5 hPa at 8:35 PM
Highest wind recorded by the station - 63.7 kph / Gust - 106.6 kph (well before the eyewall) from the NW

[cycloneye]

Looking at radar imagery, it seems that the tiny core threaded between Homonhon and Dinagat Islands.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G41u50EbUAE9yY3?format=png&name=4096x4096

Do you have the link of the radar?

[doomhaMwx]

Looking at radar imagery, it seems that the tiny core threaded between Homonhon and Dinagat Islands.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G41u50EbUAE9yY3?format=png&name=4096x4096

Do you have the link of the radar?

It's a personal plot, but radar images are also available here: https://www.panahon.gov.ph/

[mrbagyo]

Significant flash flooding is currently happening right now in Cebu

 https://twitter.com/OreboundImages/status/1985454625722679578




 https://twitter.com/MarySyNimu/status/1985479469566722061

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Currently in Manila, but almost all my family is in Cebu. Never seen anything like this in my life. Most of their belongings were submerged, cars were on top of each other, and there's potential for loss of life. People now advised to take medication for leptospirosis. This is unreal... Not even Ruping/Mike or Rai/Odette did this. I hope my people can recover.

It also worsens the ordeal over the north, where the storm made landfall.

[mrbagyo]

Given the damage it brought to the Visayas (especially in Cebu Province) - I think this will be the 4th billion dollar storm of the Philippines - joining Bopha, Haiyan and Rai.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jesusfalcis/status/1985603232803274820

[mrbagyo]

Kalmaegi's convection is just straight up gnarly.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mother's family home in Mandaue was submerged. Was supposed to move back in there next month after Manila---spent my childhood and post-Rai recovery in there. Almost all belongings were wet/damaged, cars won't start. People were on top of their roofs.

Bacayan and Villa Del Rio bore the hardest brunt in the city. Heard so many missing reports from Bacayan. My FB feed was full of distress calls within and outside of those areas. Cebu PDRRMO reported 48 fatalities so far and sadly we expect the number to rise. Talisay, Danao, Carmen, Consolacion, Mandaue, Liloan, Compostela, Pinamungajan were badly affected as well.

PAGASA says 183 mm of rain fell in Mactan, and I assume this number was even higher in Cebu and Mandaue. My go-to Weather Station in Weather Underground (Best Western Cebu) reported 120 mm, but it stopped reporting for several hours and shaved off some rainfall. As per PAGASA, one and a half month's worth of rain fell.

As per Cebuanos they do not remember any known historical precedent. My family and friends say this was the worst flood to ever hit Metro Cebu. This could also be the last time we see Kalmaegi and Tino in our naming lists. And is an eye opener for all of us.

[Hurricane2022]

Mother's family home in Mandaue was submerged. Was supposed to move back in there next month after Manila---spent my childhood and post-Rai recovery in there. Almost all belongings were wet/damaged, cars won't start. People were on top of their roofs.

Bacayan and Villa Del Rio bore the hardest brunt in the city. Heard so many missing reports from Bacayan. My FB feed was full of distress calls within and outside of those areas. Cebu PDRRMO reported 48 fatalities so far and sadly we expect the number to rise. Talisay, Danao, Carmen, Consolacion, Mandaue, Liloan, Compostela, Pinamungajan were badly affected as well.

PAGASA says 183 mm of rain fell in Mactan, and I assume this number was even higher in Cebu and Mandaue. My go-to Weather Station in Weather Underground (Best Western Cebu) reported 120 mm, but it stopped reporting for several hours and shaved off some rainfall. As per PAGASA, one and a half month's worth of rain fell.

As per Cebuanos they do not remember any known historical precedent. My family and friends say this was the worst flood to ever hit Metro Cebu. This could also be the last time we see Kalmaegi and Tino in our naming lists. And is an eye opener for all of us.

My goodness! I'm so sorry for you, your family and the affected people. I wasn't expecting such damage tbh, since Kalmaegi was moving at a significant pace and it was weaker than STYs like Rai and Haiyan... praying for the Filipinos!!!

[mrbagyo]

Appears to be pummeling the tourism town of El Nido.

Images of damage from Cebu and Negros are gut wrenching.

Talisay City

[mrbagyo]

[dexterlabio]

Eye peeking on IR

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Now that the core is well established again, it can finally go major once the sun goes down.

Several members of FNV3 is hyping this up again to reach Cat 5 in SCS. Central Vietnam should pay close attention, it might challenge Yagi as the most intense landfall ever

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986074515747565973

[TorSkk]

JTWC is still seeing a 95kt peak as of 15Z update but on latest frames it's definitely looking better with eye clearing somewhat within the CMG ring

[TorSkk]

JMA now forecasting 935 hPa peak as CDO is getting more symmetrical. Certainly seems very dangerous for this part of Vietnam, though not sure about historical context.

TPPN10 PGTW 051827

A. TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI)

B. 05/1730Z

C. 13.24N

D. 114.35E

E. THREE/GK2A

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.0. MET 5.5. PT 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


TIMMERMAN