WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 250714 0600 24.7N 140.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

looks like it's going to be 96W huh

[Hayabusa]

Already medium

ABPW10 PGTW 141230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141230Z-150600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140751ZJUL2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140152ZJUL2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 14JUL25 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 36.8N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 140900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 26.0N
139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 140901Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A SMALL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION. A RECENT 141048Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION, WITH SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING AND 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ISOLATED OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS
FORMING ADJACENT TO AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF 20-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WHICH EXTENDS POLEWARD AS FAR NORTH AS TS 06W. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO-TO REVEAL SUSTAINED WINDS OF 16-21 KNOTS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 31 KNOTS WITH A SLP OF 1004MB. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20
KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING A SMALL RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLC WITH A
NORTHWARD TRACK. THESE TYPES OF SMALL SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND COULD INTENSIFY TO 40-50 KNOTS OR HIGHER WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) AT 14JUL25 0000Z, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 140300) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 141930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.9N 139.5E TO 39.7N 141.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26.0N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CORE CONVECTION BUILT OVER THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A 141048Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A SHARP CUSP
FEATURE AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ISOLATED ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. THIS
SMALL SYSTEM IS FORMING WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF ELEVATED (20-30
KNOTS) SOUTHERLY WINDS TRAILING IN THE WAKE OF 06W. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM FAILING TO CLOSE OFF INTO A DEFINED CIRCULATION AS IT QUICKLY
TRACKS TO THE NORTH, BUT WITH ENHANCED WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TRACK GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151930Z.
//
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