WPAC: KROSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 250721 0000 8.5N 154.0E WPAC 15 0

[cycloneye]

Here is the one that may be a strong typhoon if all aligns right and the best thing is that after it tracks close to the Mariana Islands it will move in open waters once a strong cyclone and it will be a beautiful one to track. Hurricane2022, Hayabusa, sasha_B, mrbagyo and others.

[cycloneye]

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 21JUL25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.5N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 198 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5N 135.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 774 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH EASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTH WEST QUADRANT. A 210043Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH (20-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION, CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE, CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY AND A
WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD, IMPACTS MIGHT BE SEEN AS FAR AS 400-600 NM AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN, EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N
154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF FANANU. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z
ASCAT PASS WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY
WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z

[cycloneye]

The Guam NWS has a long discussion and expect a lot of rain from this.

The tropical disturbance that is expected to approach the Marianas
has been designated Invest 98W by the JTWC. The system is located in
eastern Chuuk State and is expected to move west-northwest over the
coming days before turning northward towards the Marianas. We`ll
start the period with east-northeast winds gradually turning
northward and then westwards as the tropical disturbance approaches.
Model guidance continues to show 5 to 10 inches of rain across the
Marianas from Thursday through Sunday night, with locally higher
amounts greater than 12 inches possible. The rainfall forecast will
depend on the patch of the storm and whether or not it taps into the
monsoonal flow. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this happening leading to
copious of rainfall across the Marianas. Confidence is lower in the
potential strength for 98W.


.Hydrology...
A tropical disturbance, Joint Typhoon Warning Center`s (JTWC) Invest
98W is centered southeast of Guam near 9N154E. This invest is
expected to move toward the Marianas through the week as it slowly
develops. 98W is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the Marianas
Thursday evening through Sunday. Models differ on location and
strength of 98W as it moves through the Marianas, however, they do
agree that heavy rainfall is likely as early as Thursday, continuing
through the Weekend.

There remains the potential for Guam and the CNMI to see rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches by Sunday. Ensemble means lie on the lower
end of this range between 5 to 8 inches, but 75th percentiles are
closer to 6 to 10 inches for the Marianas and the 90th percentile
shows the potential for over a foot of rain across Saipan and Tinian.
Deterministic guidance also shows some of these higher rainfall
totals, showing the potential for a higher end rainfall event
depending on the exact track and strength of Invest 98W and the
positioning of the monsoon trough.

Residents on the Marianas need to closely monitor this developing
situation as watches, advisories and warnings could be issued later.

If living near streams and rivers, prepare to move items away from
stream and river banks. Make sure storm drains nearby are not
clogged, especially if living in low-lying areas.

[Hayabusa]

Hurricane models now running on 98W when it's still low chance, usually they run when an invest is given the medium chance, guess it's because they are threatening the Marianas, a US territory...

[cycloneye]

Hurricane models now running on 98W when it's still low chance, usually they run when an invest is given the medium chance, guess it's because they are threatening the Marianas, a US territory...
https://i.imgur.com/ZQipcp0.png

Do you post the link to those graphics? First time I see those.

[Hayabusa]

Hurricane models now running on 98W when it's still low chance, usually they run when an invest is given the medium chance, guess it's because they are threatening the Marianas, a US territory...
https://i.imgur.com/ZQipcp0.png

Do you post the link to those graphics? First time I see those.

Here:
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/index.php

[Hayabusa]

12z

[cycloneye]

From the Guam NWS.

.Western Micronesia Update...
Invest 98W remains weak and poorly organized, now located near Chuuk
at around 8N152E. 98W is not kicking up much convection so far, so
decided to downgrade showers to scattered, becoming numerous locally
heavy showers in the afternoon, that is if 98W starts to develop
according to model guidance. Also nudged winds up to 10 to 20 kt
tonight, although this is also dependent on 98W`s development and
movement north of Chuuk. The other update was to add locally heavy
showers to Palau today. Satellite shows clusters of showers and
thunderstorms to the southeast and east of Palau waters with the
cloud tops shearing over the islands. Model guidance suggests that
this area of convergence may shift over the islands today, but kept
shower coverage at scattered (30-50%) with showers expected to be
heavy at times and gusts near heavier showers up to 20 kt.

The tropical disturbance that is expected to approach the Marianas
has been designated Invest 98W by the JTWC. The system is located in
eastern Chuuk State and is expected to move west-northwest over the
coming days before turning northward towards the Marianas. We`ll
start the period with east-northeast winds gradually turning
northward and then westwards as the tropical disturbance approaches.
Model guidance continues to show 5 to 10 inches of rain across the
Marianas from Thursday through Sunday night, with locally higher
amounts greater than 12 inches possible. The rainfall forecast will
depend on the patch of the storm and whether or not it taps into the
monsoonal flow. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this happening leading to
copious of rainfall across the Marianas. Confidence is lower in the
potential strength for 98W.

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJUL2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220252ZJUL2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 22JUL25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5N 106.8E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.6N 133.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 220113Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A
BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH PATCHY 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
QUADRANT AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 220019Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 30-
31C. INVEST 97W HAS FORMED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF
BROAD MONSOONAL FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. AFTER THIS PERIOD, THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE AND MERGE WITH A
DEVELOPING MONSOON DEPRESSION SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THIS MONSOON
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF FANANU.
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH
SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z ASCAT PASS WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS)
ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN
ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A has a superTyphoon cat 4.

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS is much weaker after consistently showing a strong typhoon for several days now. Could be a fluke run though if 0z is back to showing a stronger storm. Either way development appears to be slow to occur over the next couple days with the way it looks now.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Disturbance, Invest 98W, Approaching the Marianas
Wednesday, July 23, 2025, Valid at 7:00 AM ChST
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM, ROTA, TINIAN AND SAIPAN
TC POTENTIAL/HAZARDS:
A tropical disturbance, Invest 98W, continues its approach to the Mariana Islands. 98W remains a poorly organized disturbance, and was positioned overnight to be near 11N149E. Due to the structure of this disturbance, the current position is of low confidence and subject to some change today, as is typical with poorly organized disturbances. However, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center did upgrade the potential for development on Tuesday evening from LOW to MEDIUM. A rating of MEDIUM means that tropical cyclone development (intensification to a tropical depression) is likely, but expected to occur beyond 24 hours. Numerical forecast models indicate 98W will continue toward the Marianas, but with gradual development in the coming days, eventually forming a low-level circulation center (LLCC) in the vicinity of Guam or Rota. At this time, a LLCC is not observed at the surface. Intensification trends near the Marianas vary, and range from a passing tropical disturbance, to a tropical depression…or a tropical storm farther north into the CNMI. Significant uncertainty remains as to when any development will actually begin to occur.
GUAM & THE CNMI:
Despite the uncertainties surrounding the possible/eventual development of 98W, the time and distance between the Marianas and 98W is decreasing. Residents of the Marianas should plan for and expect periods of showers, thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall the next several days. Winds will increase late tonight and into Thursday as 98W nears, becoming gusty. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for the Marianas for the possibility of significant rainfall.
In what could shape up to be a 2-part weather event, 98W will proceed toward the Marianas, in some form, likely heading northward into the CNMI possibly with some additional development. Following 98W, a monsoon surge could develop bringing a couple days of strong southwest winds and showers to the Marianas.
At the least, this will be a tent, canopy, tarp, trash bin weather event: secure those loose and vulnerable items, and other items vulnerable to gusty winds. Also, as conditions can and do change rapidly in the wet season and with passing tropical disturbances, residents across the islands should keep up to date with all the latest weather forecasts and information from the NWS Guam. While this does not appear to be a typhoon scenario for Guam, Rota, Tinian or Saipan, it remains a possibility that some islands could eventually deal with a passing tropical depression, or a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
313 AM ChST Wed Jul 23 2025

GUZ001-MPZ001>003-232000-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FA.A.0002.250722T1713Z-250725T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
313 AM ChST Wed Jul 23 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian.

* WHEN...Through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water
crossings may be flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A generally unsettled pattern caused by localized convergence
and nearby tropical disturbance Invest 98W southeast of the
Marianas, is likely to produce heavy showers and
thunderstorms to bring localized flash flooding risk to the
region for at least the next several days. As 98W continues
to consolidate and move closer to the Marianas, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase, with
rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches possible through late
Friday afternoon.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Montvila

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 148.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY
34 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE (MSI) IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION, AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC NEAR GUAM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VWS
(VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), WARM (30-31 C) SST (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON STEADY
DEVELOPMENT AND A NORTHWESTERN TRACK STEERING TOWARDS JAPAN WITHIN A 24-
36 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

Ready for an upgrade. Looks sloppy but is organizing.

98W INVEST 250723 1800 13.2N 144.1E WPAC 25 1004

[StormWeather]

Ready for an upgrade. Looks sloppy but is organizing.

98W INVEST 250723 1800 13.2N 144.1E WPAC 25 1004

https://i.imgur.com/X1gls64.gif

Has become TD 12W according to Zoom Earth. Sometimes Zoom Earth will show the new forecast cone or newly upgraded storm before other sources do.

[StormWeather]

Ready for an upgrade. Looks sloppy but is organizing.

98W INVEST 250723 1800 13.2N 144.1E WPAC 25 1004

https://i.imgur.com/X1gls64.gif

Has become TD 12W according to Zoom Earth. Sometimes Zoom Earth will show the new forecast come or newly upgraded storm before other sources do.

From the JTWC:

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751JUL25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 144.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 144.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.5N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.0N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.8N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.5N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.5N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 144.0E.
23JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
32 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (CO-MAY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 230900).//
NNNN

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1225web.txt