WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 251029 0600 7.6N 144.1E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

00z, Euro totally weakened to one big recurving TS ...

[Hayabusa]

FNV3 00z

[Hayabusa]

GFS 06Z makes a typhoon before a Visayas landfall

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI 06Z maybe a TS at most

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI 06Z maybe a TS at most

Same with Euro 06z, but a large TS or monsoon depression

[Hayabusa]

fnv3 06z

[Hayabusa]

12z Euro AI more stronger and also developing another wave behind it, and forecasts a double landfall for the Philippines

[Hayabusa]

Euro 12z moving very slowly over the Philippine Sea before striking Luzon as an intense typhoon

[Hayabusa]

FNV3 12Z lots of extreme maximums

[Hayabusa]

EPS 12Z

[mrbagyo]

South of Guam, appears nearly closed

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N
142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER
A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GFS BEING THE MORE
INTENSE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 98W
INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z eps

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 310100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/310100ZOCT2025-310600ZOCT2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.1N 142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH GFS BEING
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

First HFSA run makes it a cat 1 before landfall

[Hayabusa]

JMA 06Z TD

WWJP27 RJTD 310600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 07N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[mrbagyo]

98W INVEST 251031 1200 8.0N 140.5E WPAC 20 1008