90S INVEST 250712 1800 4.9S 87.0E SHEM 15 0
SIO: INVEST 90S
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90S
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.2S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT AN AREA OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
ONLY HINDRANCE BEING MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IMPACTING 90S FROM THE EAST. CURRENT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
7.2S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT AN AREA OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
ONLY HINDRANCE BEING MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IMPACTING 90S FROM THE EAST. CURRENT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
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