SIO: DUDZAI - Intense Tropical Cyclone

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2010681855134323162


 https://x.com/i/status/2010684760213909851

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DUDZAI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 205 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 285 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 937 hPa.

Position on January 12 at 4 p.m. local time: 16.8 South / 77.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2370 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3540 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-EAST, at 6 km/h.

System information:

- Intense tropical cyclone DUDZAI continues to intensify and is moving slowly south. It is currently located far from inhabited land, more than 1500 km east-northeast of Rodrigues.

- DUDZAI is expected to remain at the tropical cyclone or intense tropical cyclone stage at the start of this week, moving slowly southward.

- From the middle of the week, the system could begin to slowly weaken while curving its trajectory westward and then southwestward.

[Yellow Evan]

Peaked around ~125 knots I'd say. Shear likely to impede it going forward and SSTs aren't optimal at this latitude in this area of the world.

[sasha_B]

B. 12/1430Z

C. 16.87S

D. 77.95E

E. TWO/MET9

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET
YIELDS 5.5 AND PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.

The latest satellite fix bulletin from JTWC puts Dudzai at FT 6.5. Not often you see a +2.5 developing trend!
That equates to 127 kt; if you round down to 125 kt, CKZ yields a central pressure of 932～934 hPa. That's in line with the La Reunion RSMC's estimate of 110 kt (10-minute sustained).

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/i/status/2010763998426513440

[sasha_B]

The ADT page for Dudzai shows that its intensity at 12z was indeed overwritten to 125 kt (1-min.). Unfortunately that page doesn't show pressure values and I'm still getting errors whenever I try to load the ACTF sector files, so I'm not sure what that's been updated to.

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DUDZAI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 205 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 285 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 938 hPa.

Position on January 12 at 10 p.m. local time: 16.9 South / 77.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2365 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3550 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH, at 4 km/h.

System information:

- Intense tropical cyclone DUDZAI is developing over the eastern part of the basin, more than 1500 km east-northeast of Rodrigues. Its intensity appears to have peaked and plateaued since Monday afternoon. The system is moving very slowly southward and seems to be beginning its gradual turning phase.

- DUDZAI is expected to weaken slightly by tomorrow, Tuesday. Between Tuesday evening and at least until Friday, it is expected to remain close to tropical cyclone strength on a westward trajectory, initially slow and then accelerating towards the end of the week.

Over the weekend, its trajectory is expected to shift more towards the southwest. However, the forecast remains highly uncertain. According to the currently favored scenario, DUDZAI should pass a good distance from Rodrigues.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/2010862486145454298

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DUDZAI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 260 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 948 hPa.

Position on January 13 at 04:00 local time: 17.1 South / 78.0 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2370 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3560 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: Quasi-stationary.

System information:

- It's beginning to weaken while moving very slowly and starting a turning phase.

- DUDZAI is expected to continue weakening on Tuesday and should be downgraded to a tropical cyclone by this afternoon or evening. It is then expected to remain close to tropical cyclone strength until at least Friday, moving westward, initially slowly and then accelerating towards the end of the week.

- During the weekend, its trajectory should shift a little more towards the southwest while circulating off the coast of Rodrigues at a distance that is still very uncertain and with an intensity that could weaken but which also remains very uncertain.
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[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DUDZAI


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 230 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 956 hPa.

Position on January 13 at 10 a.m. local time: 17.4 South / 78.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2365 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3570 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 6 km/h.

[cycloneye]

Going downhill fast.

[cycloneye]

Has made a comeback but it will be the last oportunity before it reach unfavorable conditions.

[Hurricane2022]

It may reach C3+ again

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 982 hPa.

Position on January 14 at 10 p.m. local time: 17.2 South / 75.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2150 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3330 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.

[sasha_B]

Dudzai looks like it's approaching 100 kt again at this point. Even if it's not quite a clear-cut T5.5, I think 95 kt / 963 hPa would be a fine estimate for the storm's intensity as of around 0530z. Worth noting that the most recent HAFS-A run shows a second SSHWS Category 4 peak later today.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 140 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 974 hPa.

Position on January 15 at 10 a.m. local time: 17.1 South / 74.3 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1990 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3170 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.

System information:

Tropical cyclone DUDZAI is evolving over the center of the basin less than 1200 km east-northeast of Rodrigues, moving in a general westward direction.

- By tomorrow, Friday, its intensity is expected to increase further as it continues to move westward.

- From Friday evening, DUDZAI should adopt a trajectory in a general direction of the South-West with a tendency to weaken for the weekend then becoming more uncertain at the beginning of next week.

- In this scenario, DUDZAI will circulate to the Southeast of the Mascarene Islands, passing off Rodrigues on Sunday and then the Reunion-Mauritius sector at the beginning of next week.

Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:

- No influence from this system is expected on Mayotte for the next 5 days.

For Réunion, the most likely scenario at present is a passage early next week (Monday or Tuesday) at a distance yet to be determined, but which should be significant enough to prevent the most dangerous conditions associated with the phenomenon from affecting the island. This scenario, rather reassuring in terms of its impact on the island's weather (potentially minor peripheral influence), nevertheless involves fairly long-term forecasts (4-5 days) and will of course need to be confirmed in the coming days.

[Hurricane2022]

[sasha_B]

Up to 110 kt, 952 hPa per JTWC, as of 12z. The satellite fix bulletin for 1430z was DT 7.0, but they chose to keep the previous DT of 6.5 - still indicative of a much higher intensity than noted on the 12z best track point. IMO Dudzai is back to its peak intensity of 125～130 kt, at least.

[sasha_B]

2 hours later and while the CMG ring isn't unbroken in every single frame, an OW eye surrounded by W still yields T6.5. I think Dudzai has surpassed its first peak at this point, after a second extremely impressive RI cycle. I'd go with 130 kt, 932 hPa for intensity at 17z - constraints (and several hours of missing the eye late yesterday and early today) are holding back ADT, and there was never a subjective DT of 7.0 during Dudzai's first peak.

That said, the eye is quite small and starting to cloud over. It could well be past its peak in another hour and steadily weakening by the time of the 21z advisory.

[cycloneye]

Impressive the comeback.