91S INVEST 260121 0600 10.3S 116.1E SHEM 15 1009
SIO: INVEST 91S
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5S
116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 549 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 91S TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 549 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 91S TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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