90S INVEST 260201 0000 12.6S 67.2E SHEM 15 1009
SIO: Tropical Depression 10
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90S
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.4S 64.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 63.7E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS CONTINUING
TO CONSOLIDATE. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
11.4S 64.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 63.7E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS CONTINUING
TO CONSOLIDATE. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 10-20252026
DISTURBED ZONE 10-20252026
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1007 hPa.
Position on February 4 at 4 p.m. local time: 11.6 South / 63.6 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1340 km to the NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 2010 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a disturbed area. It is centered 700 km northeast of Saint-Brandon and shows signs of slow intensification.
This system is expected to continue slowly intensifying over the next 24 hours, moving slowly south-southwest. It is expected to reach moderate tropical storm strength starting Thursday evening, followed by more rapid intensification beginning Friday. It could then pass close to Saint Brandon on Saturday. Its trajectory would then shift to the west-southwest, but it is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the location and timing of this change in trajectory. Early next week, the system is expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance yet to be determined.
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1007 hPa.
Position on February 4 at 4 p.m. local time: 11.6 South / 63.6 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1340 km to the NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 2010 km to the sector: EAST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.
System information:
- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a disturbed area. It is centered 700 km northeast of Saint-Brandon and shows signs of slow intensification.
This system is expected to continue slowly intensifying over the next 24 hours, moving slowly south-southwest. It is expected to reach moderate tropical storm strength starting Thursday evening, followed by more rapid intensification beginning Friday. It could then pass close to Saint Brandon on Saturday. Its trajectory would then shift to the west-southwest, but it is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the location and timing of this change in trajectory. Early next week, the system is expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance yet to be determined.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 10
DISTURBED ZONE 10-20252026
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1006 hPa.
Position on February 5 at 10 a.m. local time: 13.5 South / 61.8 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1050 km to the NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1800 km to the East sector
Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 15 km/h.
System information:
- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a disturbed area. It is centered approximately 400 km northeast of Saint-Brandon and is showing signs of slow intensification.
This system is expected to continue slowly intensifying over the next 24 hours, moving slowly south-southwest. It is expected to reach moderate tropical storm strength by Friday, followed by more rapid intensification starting Saturday. It could then pass close to Saint Brandon on Saturday. Its trajectory would then shift to the west-southwest, but it is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the location and timing of this change in trajectory. Early next week, the system is expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance yet to be determined.
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1006 hPa.
Position on February 5 at 10 a.m. local time: 13.5 South / 61.8 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1050 km to the NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1800 km to the East sector
Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 15 km/h.
System information:
- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a disturbed area. It is centered approximately 400 km northeast of Saint-Brandon and is showing signs of slow intensification.
This system is expected to continue slowly intensifying over the next 24 hours, moving slowly south-southwest. It is expected to reach moderate tropical storm strength by Friday, followed by more rapid intensification starting Saturday. It could then pass close to Saint Brandon on Saturday. Its trajectory would then shift to the west-southwest, but it is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the location and timing of this change in trajectory. Early next week, the system is expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance yet to be determined.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 10
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD
TURN TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES
A STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD
TURN TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES
A STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 10
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10-20252026
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1006 hPa.
Position on February 5 at 4 p.m. local time: 14.1 South / 61.4 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 970 km to the NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1760 km to the East sector
Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a tropical disturbance and is located approximately 320 km northeast of Saint-Brandon.
The system's intensification may be slightly slower than initially anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions between now and Friday. The moderate tropical storm stage is therefore delayed until Friday evening. It is expected to pass near Saint Brandon around Saturday morning.
- A more rapid intensification is then possible starting this weekend. Its trajectory could then shift towards the west-southwest, with a potential transition to tropical cyclone status starting Sunday. The system is then expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance that is still very uncertain, before heading towards Madagascar from Tuesday. It is important to note that considerable uncertainty remains regarding the trajectory and rate of intensification of the system.
Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:
- For Reunion Island:
No influence from this system is expected until Saturday inclusive. From Sunday onwards, and especially on Monday, this system may influence weather conditions in Réunion in terms of wind, sea state, and rainfall. However, given the uncertainties associated with the still distant forecast (4-day forecast), it is far too early to determine the extent of this influence.
- For Mayotte:
No influence is expected on Mayotte in the next 5 days regarding this system.
Information for other areas of the basin:
No influence from this system is expected over the next 3 days on other inhabited areas of the basin.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low-pressure system over the next few days:
Tropical Depression
Center positioned on 06/02 at 16:00 local time, by 15.6 South / 59.9 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
Center positioned on 07/02 at 16pm local time, by 16.9 South / 59.2 East.
Tropical Cyclone
Center positioned on 08/02 at 16:00 local time, by 17.9 South / 57.8 East.
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
Center positioned on 09/02 at 16:00 local time, by 18.3 South / 54.6 East.
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
Center positioned on 10/02 at 4 PM local time, at 19.0 South / 50.7 East
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 45 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 65 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1006 hPa.
Position on February 5 at 4 p.m. local time: 14.1 South / 61.4 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 970 km to the NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1760 km to the East sector
Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- System No. 10-20252026 is currently at the stage of a tropical disturbance and is located approximately 320 km northeast of Saint-Brandon.
The system's intensification may be slightly slower than initially anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions between now and Friday. The moderate tropical storm stage is therefore delayed until Friday evening. It is expected to pass near Saint Brandon around Saturday morning.
- A more rapid intensification is then possible starting this weekend. Its trajectory could then shift towards the west-southwest, with a potential transition to tropical cyclone status starting Sunday. The system is then expected to pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance that is still very uncertain, before heading towards Madagascar from Tuesday. It is important to note that considerable uncertainty remains regarding the trajectory and rate of intensification of the system.
Information for Réunion and/or Mayotte:
- For Reunion Island:
No influence from this system is expected until Saturday inclusive. From Sunday onwards, and especially on Monday, this system may influence weather conditions in Réunion in terms of wind, sea state, and rainfall. However, given the uncertainties associated with the still distant forecast (4-day forecast), it is far too early to determine the extent of this influence.
- For Mayotte:
No influence is expected on Mayotte in the next 5 days regarding this system.
Information for other areas of the basin:
No influence from this system is expected over the next 3 days on other inhabited areas of the basin.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low-pressure system over the next few days:
Tropical Depression
Center positioned on 06/02 at 16:00 local time, by 15.6 South / 59.9 East.
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
Center positioned on 07/02 at 16pm local time, by 16.9 South / 59.2 East.
Tropical Cyclone
Center positioned on 08/02 at 16:00 local time, by 17.9 South / 57.8 East.
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
Center positioned on 09/02 at 16:00 local time, by 18.3 South / 54.6 East.
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
Center positioned on 10/02 at 4 PM local time, at 19.0 South / 50.7 East
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 10
Tropical Depression 10-2025-2026
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1005 hPa.
Position on February 6 at 04:00 local time: 15.0 South / 60.7 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 840 km to the NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1690 km to the East sector
Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- System No. 10-20252026 has transitioned to a tropical depression this night and is located approximately 190 km northeast of Saint-Brandon.
- There is little change to the official forecast compared to previous networks.
The system is slowly moving south-southwest until Saturday evening. Its development is slow during this period, in an environment that remains partially favorable. The moderate tropical storm stage is thus delayed until Friday night into Saturday, during which it is expected to pass near Saint Brandon.
- A more rapid intensification is then possible starting this weekend. Its trajectory could then shift towards the west-southwest on Saturday evening or Sunday morning, with a potential transition to tropical cyclone status from Monday. The system should then pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance that is still very uncertain, before heading towards Madagascar from Tuesday.
-It is important to note that there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the trajectory and rate of intensification of the phenomenon.
Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1005 hPa.
Position on February 6 at 04:00 local time: 15.0 South / 60.7 East.
Distance from the coast of Réunion: 840 km to the NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1690 km to the East sector
Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 13 km/h.
System information:
- System No. 10-20252026 has transitioned to a tropical depression this night and is located approximately 190 km northeast of Saint-Brandon.
- There is little change to the official forecast compared to previous networks.
The system is slowly moving south-southwest until Saturday evening. Its development is slow during this period, in an environment that remains partially favorable. The moderate tropical storm stage is thus delayed until Friday night into Saturday, during which it is expected to pass near Saint Brandon.
- A more rapid intensification is then possible starting this weekend. Its trajectory could then shift towards the west-southwest on Saturday evening or Sunday morning, with a potential transition to tropical cyclone status from Monday. The system should then pass north of the Mascarene Islands at a distance that is still very uncertain, before heading towards Madagascar from Tuesday.
-It is important to note that there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the trajectory and rate of intensification of the phenomenon.
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