ATL: INVEST 92L

[cycloneye]

This will be the last outlook.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS REMAINS
MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS
SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED. ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN ON 1 JUNE 2012.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[wxman57]

First one of the season...

[cycloneye]

Is officially over for 92L.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205150300
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 922012.ren

[bob rulz]

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Any chance this could be upgraded to a suptropical storm in the postseason analysis, or was its period of STS-like characteristics just not long enough?

[cycloneye]

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Any chance this could be upgraded to a suptropical storm in the postseason analysis, or was its period of STS-like characteristics just not long enough?

They may look into it when it was at it's peak.

[RL3AO]

Looked better then half of the storms last year lol.

[DanieleItalyRm]

How many of you do, to say that this is not a tropical system?
is it under your eyes evidently tropical, no doubt.
This being the same as Grace, identical.
We do not need a model that shows us a hot property, A structure so well done it is only possible with a warm core already 'matured.
You do not think most 'simply that the models do not solve a system so small?
You do not think that the models are missing something?
why the tracking systems in that part of the Atlantic always start very late or initially ignored?
and why Nhc bulletin issued only after the cyclone was in great shape?
it appeared in their maps with 40% chance 'only after it had reached the highest tropical characteristics. So maybe it's just a matter of duration has not given a name to this system? (also the tracking Vince and Grace started very late, but they have intensified the next day and they had a name). A similar system would never have passed as unnamed or invest on American coasts.
If Grace was a tropical system, although 92 L should be.
Grace will move 'of water also 17 °C; and the height of the clouds in tropical cyclone Grace was not very different (i reached -60 were not enough? a tropical cyclone is formed by storm clouds, but I do not think there is a limit to equal or exceed in height or temperature).
Some have said that is not even sub-tropical? absurd; if this is not sub-tropical or tropical please explain what kind of storm is this. In my opinion, is at least sub-tropical or even tropical. As has already happened to Karl, Vince, Epsilon and Grace the tropical transition has formed a tropical cyclone
from an extratropical cyclone.
I think this storm should be reassessed and revised.
Sorry for my english,
Daniele - Italy

NCHurricane2009's Blog: "My personal opinion is more aggressive...as I believe this is already a subtropical storm. This is because the surface low's circular convective canopy (albeit a small diameter one) has been seperate from all (non-tropical) frontal boundary clouds...and moreover this ball of convective clouds has been sustaining itself for several hours.
Figure shows a faint banding-type eye...but more impressively signs of anticyclonic cirrus outflow in the northern semicircle shown by the light blue arrows. This could be a sign that the surface low's vertical warm core has grown enough in height to promote high pressure upper-level anticyclonic outflow as a fully tropical system has.".

[brunota2003]

I personally think we need more observations (recon etc) in these types of systems. I don't think the models resolve the core of the system well at all, and the only way to really learn what they are (along with fond out how accurate the models are) is through direct study and observations of these types of systems. What if the warm core is so small, compared to the rest of the low, that it is being overshadowed by the parent low on the models? I think there is a lot more complexity to these than we currently know.

On another note, is it possible for a warm core to develop and have a cold core overtop of it? And could that mask out/hide the warm core's signature?

[RL3AO]

Cold upper atmosphere meant high lapse rates. Convection developed. Released heat. Made it quasi-warm core. That warmed atmosphere and limited further development because of low SSTs.

[MGC]

SST way too cold to be a TC....STC perhaps.....MGC

[DanieleItalyRm]

SST way too cold to be a TC? The Sea Surface temperatures (SST) are not very different from those where he developed the tropical cyclone Grace:
Grace:

92L Invest: