WTPN32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 27.6N 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 29.6N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.5N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.6N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.1N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 142.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z
AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A POSSIBLE WEAK, DEVELOPING EYE. THIS
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 161033Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE; HOWEVER, THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
TO THE NORTH. BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 23W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. THE UKMO
TRACKER IS DISCOUNTED SINCE IT POORLY INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM AS TOO
WEAK AND CONSEQUENTLY WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION AND THEN JUMPS THE
CENTER NORTHWARD ERRONEOUSLY INTO A MIDLATITUDE LOW. AFTER TAU 36
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO TWO CLUSTERS WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN
DEPICTING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK WHILE JGSM, WBAR, ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
A MORE REALISTIC EASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE
EASTWARD TRACK AND IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET NOGAPS AND GFDN. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72; HOWEVER, SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 96, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO REGENERATION AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS SITUATION WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY JTWC.//
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