ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[crimi481]

Based on the new position of the Low circulation - not so sure about future forecast path given
May be more West - and eventually into Gulf?

[northjaxpro]

Considering that 94L has been fighting against shear up to 40 knots for its lifespan to this point, I think it is remarkable that the circulation is relatively still rather well-defined at this time.

Im still curious. if this low does hold together instead of another developing farther north. well i guess the question is... is this broad circ tropical atm or not. I would assume the temperature profile is warm core. then in that case it would not necessarily have to transition. rather the environment would just have to become more conducive for organized convection.

I agree. This particular Low Pressure area in the FL Straits currently I would definitely be inclined to think is warm-cored. I am also thinking like you in that this may remain our primary Low Pressure circulation. We'll see.

[cycloneye]

Aric,good low level convergence,although elongated.

[crimi481]

Is there a Ridge building over C. Fla - stearing the new Low in Fl Straights more westerly?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,good low level convergence,although elongated.

[img]http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/3982/wg8conv.gif[/mg]

yeah going to be a bunch of rain for south florida.

[GCANE]

Core at 2C but low in altitude.

Also a low-level cap inhibiting convection.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1205241013

[Aric Dunn]

The low is sitting right over marathon right now. and still becoming more defined.

[RL3AO]

The low is sitting right over marathon right now. and still becoming more defined.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

Very impressive.

[canes04]

Agree Aric. Could spin up right off the coast of Florida. Hope you guys get some rain up there.
I live and work in Doral and have had over 10 inches of rain since Tuesday and it's still coming down.

[crimi481]

May actually spin up over Everglades (as we have seen in past)
Rain rates accross all s half Fl may need adjustments

[Aric Dunn]

The miami beach area has already received 2.5 inches according to doppler estimates in the last 2 hours and there is a strong band just redeveloping right over the same area. could be a major flooding problem later today.

[hurricanefloyd5]

CHANCES ARE WHAT RIGHT NOW THAT THIS IS GOING OUT TO SEA?

[RL3AO]

CHANCES ARE WHAT RIGHT NOW THAT THIS IS GOING OUT TO SEA?

If it does it won't be very quickly. That ridge is really starting to pump up over the deep south.

[hurricanefloyd5]

CHANCES ARE WHAT RIGHT NOW THAT THIS IS GOING OUT TO SEA?

If it does it won't be very quickly. That ridge is really starting to pump up over the deep south.

So it could form into a storm a head for florida is that ridge keeps building right?

[RL3AO]

Looks pretty likely it will stall off Georgia/SC. After that its too far out. Some have it kicking NE out to see. Some have it slowly drifting towards the coast. Too early to tell.

[hurricanefloyd5]

we here in central florida need the rain from this storm

[canes04]

I'm wodering if it will get that far North before the ridge builds in.
Could develop off the coast or just North of the Bahamas and come back west towards Central Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm wodering if it will get that far North before the ridge builds in.
Could develop off the coast or just North of the Bahamas and come back west towards Central Florida.

i dont think it will. most of the models redevelop another low farther NE that eventually develops. its hard to say at this point.

[tolakram]

Latest Visible

[vbhoutex]

94L is definitely working on consolidating its' core, but still hasn't done so. Low and mid levels are definitely not stacked. Also appears to me that 94L may be slowing or stalling somewhere between the keys and Lake O? Will definitely be watching as any thing that gets close to the GOM gets my attention. Way too far our to speculate on where it might go if it even gets into the GOM as a tropical entity of some sort.