CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Has enough time to RI. Good night.

[Cyclenall]

Has enough time to RI. Good night.

Yeah, it only has 18 hours left I think to do that. Its not the most impressive looking hurricane but the structure is solid. Surprised it went up to 70 knots, the NRL didn't even show it.

THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

Bad news there.

[cycloneye]

Up to 75kts at 12z Best Track.

EP, 04, 2012070712, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1186W, 75, 980, HU

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, I wake up and I see Daniel is at 75 knts.

[InRRwetrust]

Wow, I wake up and I see Daniel is at 75 knts.

,,,I`m eagerly awaiting a visible eyewall image?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE
OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE AGAIN
TRYING TO BECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED IR AND VISIBLE IMAGES. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED A LITTLE MORE...TO 75 KT...BASED ON
A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL LATER TODAY AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SOON ENCOUNTER A DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE....IT IS PRESUMED THAT
DANIEL HAS REACHED...OR IS VERY NEAR...ITS PEAK INTENSITY. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

DANIEL CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SINCE THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOW SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL SUITE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.9N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.0N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.2N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.5N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.8N 128.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.4N 134.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Looking at the latest, I don't see any signs of RI, the inner core isn't quite organized for that. I'd personally put the chances of RI at less than 5% now. It had a good run, but just not quite enough. 97E, on the other hand, will have to be watched closely.

On my phone, could someone add the disclaimer? Thanks.

cycloneye adds disclaimer

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Based on satellite appearance and satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, I would put Daniel's current intensity at 90 mph/80 knots. We shall see what SAB comes back with shortly and what the 18Z ATCF update shows.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it peaked IMO.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80kts at 18z Best Track.

EP, 04, 2012070718, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1196W, 80, 977, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

I'm somewhat surprised they raised the intensity to 80 knts. I would have kept it at 75 knts.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest look at models.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like there is still an eye.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like there is still an eye.

Yeah he still looks pretty good. Cat 2. is not out of the question yet IMO. Anyway Daniel will clear up that dry air for the system behind it. That system WILL be exciting.

[CobraStrike]

Daniel and 05E via GOES MSFC:

[Yellow Evan]

Adv should be out soon.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 072031
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD A LITTLE...TO 80
KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. DANIEL MOVED OVER A SLIGHT
RIDGE IN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THIS PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT STRENGTHENING EPISODE. AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES WEST OF 120W LONGITUDE...DANIEL WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT
OF COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE LGEM
GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS FAR
NORTH AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MOTION CONTINUES
TO BE WESTWARD...OR 270/10. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND STRENGTHENS A
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 14.6N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 14.8N 122.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.2N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 15.3N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Kingarabian]

Eye trying to clear out.

Only natural that ADT #'s are skyrocketing.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with 85 knts now.

[Kingarabian]

How about now