ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

When will the advisory come out?

[Aric Dunn]

hhmm.. guess I did not notice the first post. the title has not been changed yet. lol

Until the advisory comes out .

yeah noticed the time afterwards. just got back to the hotel

[RL3AO]

NHC not impressed.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

[ROCK]

will if it drops it down to a depression then a more west track. Must be see increasing SAL and or shear.....looks really good right now...

[Aric Dunn]

NHC not impressed.

we know how that goes though.. just yesterday none of the models even developed anything... so the fact they weaken it is not surprising. we already know given light shear a system can survive a stable environment as long as it can maintain good low level convergence. we just have to wait and see.. notice they said a lot of "maybe's" in that discussion.

[wxman57]

no fish storm with that amount of ridging to its NW... maybe later on but not till the end of the forecast period at the earliest.

A fish while it's classified as a TD/TS, anyway. Beyond then, just a wave or remnants.

[Riptide]

will if it drops it down to a depression then a more west track. Must be see increasing SAL and or shear.....looks really good right now...

They are seeing that no major models develop this, and are just trying to find reasons for it.

[SeminoleWind]

Looks like the NHC doesn't expect this one to stick around for the long haul according to there forecast.

[Florida1118]

Even if it does turn into a remnant low, we will need to watch it for reformation down the road since it appears it will be moving W into the Caribbean.

[Blinhart]

Why aren't all the models not seeing all the formations that have happened for the past couple days and having problem with them after they form????

[Aric Dunn]

no fish storm with that amount of ridging to its NW... maybe later on but not till the end of the forecast period at the earliest.

A fish while it's classified as a TD/TS, anyway. Beyond then, just a wave or remnants.

I agree a more wnw motion is likely has a TD/TS ... it would however very likely get driven wsw as it approaches the Se side of that ridge. even the the bamd models show this happening if it were to maintain as a deeper system. we will just have to wait and see.

[Aric Dunn]

The last few frames have shown only increased deep convection expanding north over the center. would not count it out just yet. the stable air may not have as much of an effect on it if it can deepen enough before then.

[Cyclenall]

IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

That's a new one, don't recall seeing this in a NHC discussion. I thought a Kelvin wave would INHIBIT development of a tropical cyclone or weaken one. Weird. Don't know what Suny-Albany is either.

I have a feeling that the intensity forecast for TD6 won't pan out as expected, maybe it won't reach above mid-TS strength or stay around weak TS levels but something tells me it won't become a remnant low while it travels across the MDR. In the late period, conditions might improve and then you have a new game while TD6 is close to the Caribbean islands. Just my take.

[Houstonia]

IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

That's a new one, don't recall seeing this in a NHC discussion. I thought a Kelvin wave would INHIBIT development of a tropical cyclone or weaken one. Weird. Don't know what Suny-Albany is either.

I have a feeling that the intensity forecast for TD6 won't pan out as expected, maybe it won't reach above mid-TS strength or stay around weak TS levels but something tells me it won't become a remnant low while it travels across the MDR. In the late period, conditions might improve and then you have a new game while TD6 is close to the Caribbean islands. Just my take.

Suny-Albany is State University of New York - in Albany.

[Extratropical94]

Still no Florence, pressure down one mb:

AL, 06, 2012080406, , BEST, 0, 140N, 285W, 30, 1008, TD

[Hurricane Alexis]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040840
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 29.1W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Hurricane Alexis]

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[Florida1118]

That's the 11pm Cone.