ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

Im not sure, but it seems to me that the 0zGFS is trying to send this through a ridge, wouldn't this stay on a west course if it stayed that weak

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Alexis]

It has some convection firing off to the Northeast of the center.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/afrika_animasjon.html

[fci]

I have seen intense hurricanes form from not so impressive tropical waves. The tropical waves that are not impressive are the ones I would be concern about.

That's kind of counter-intuitive; isn't it?
I mean logically; one should be more concerned with impressive waves than not impressive ones.
Sorry to nitpick but I think I know what you are trying to say; that we should not limit our concern to just strong tropical waves; but I can't buy your statement.
Just my pain the butt $.02.......

[Hurricane Jed]

This thing looked so beautiful coming off the coast and I felt sure this was gonna be a big storm that would deliver the United States a punch to the gut. But looking at it now I am not so sold. Not saying it couldn't turn into a monster but 93L looks like something that is gonna fizzle out.

[Gustywind]

Stays at 20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED NEAR A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNTIL THE LOW REACHES WARMER WATERS
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N23W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
18N25W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N25W MOVING WNW AT
15-20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A CUT OFF AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE LOW OVER THE W QUADRANT.

[cycloneye]

The MJO getting into the Atlantic may be the saving grace for 93L to start the developing proccess down the road.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS...AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see what happens once its up in the more favourable subtropics. The GFS has the system strengthening probably getting help from Baroclinic forcing, whilst the ECM doesn't really do anything with it at all.

[northjaxpro]

93L has a slight pulse this morning. Some convection is finally beginning to generate near the low level circulation. Still has a long way to go to generate into a healthy tropical cyclone..

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2012081212, , BEST, 0, 206N, 355W, 25, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

12z Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 121238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC SUN AUG 12 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932012) 20120812 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120812  1200   120813  0000   120813  1200   120814  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.6N  35.5W   22.0N  39.2W   23.1N  42.7W   24.4N  45.9W
BAMD    20.6N  35.5W   21.9N  38.6W   22.8N  41.5W   23.6N  44.3W
BAMM    20.6N  35.5W   22.3N  39.1W   23.5N  42.5W   24.6N  45.7W
LBAR    20.6N  35.5W   21.7N  39.1W   22.8N  42.4W   23.7N  45.7W
SHIP        25KTS          25KTS          27KTS          31KTS
DSHP        25KTS          25KTS          27KTS          31KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120814  1200   120815  1200   120816  1200   120817  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.7N  48.8W   29.2N  52.5W   33.0N  51.6W   35.0N  45.1W
BAMD    24.2N  47.0W   26.6N  51.3W   29.4N  52.7W   32.6N  50.3W
BAMM    25.7N  48.7W   29.0N  52.4W   32.4N  52.0W   34.9N  46.6W
LBAR    24.8N  48.7W   27.7N  52.8W   31.0N  53.0W   33.3N  47.9W
SHIP        38KTS          52KTS          58KTS          64KTS
DSHP        38KTS          52KTS          58KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.6N LONCUR =  35.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  20.2N LONM12 =  31.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  19.0N LONM24 =  27.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

A SSD floater has been added to 93L.

[hurricanes1234]

Just now, it might go down to near 0%. The latest images are clearly showing a mass of very shallow cumulus clouds. There is minimal, if any, convection associated with this system and the circulation continues to become less defined by the hour. I am beginning to back off on the development of 93L, even given the warm SSTs in its path over the next few days. If this system is going to develop, it needs a perfect environment, since it is losing vigor rapidly.

Another question is, which basin do you think is winning this year on activity? I'd say the eastern Pacific over the Atlantic.

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong in anything here.

____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

In terms of more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development this season, most definitely the Eastern Pacific has fared considerably better than the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic basin has been plagued by the SAL, TUTTs and upper level shear to effectively hinder the development of systems this season. Ernesto has been the only CV tropical cyclone to somehow survive those factors. It looks as if these factors will continue right on as El Nino sets up shop. So far, the only real action we have had this season were the homegrown systems, Beryl and Debby, which both significantly affected my region.

[Zanthe]

:uarrow:
In terms of more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development this season, most definitely the Eastern Pacific has fared considerably better than the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic basin has been plagued by the SAL, TUTTs and upper level shear to effectively hinder the development of systems this season. Ernesto has been the only CV tropical cyclone to somehow survive those factors. It looks as if these factors will continue right on as El Nino sets up shop. So far, the only real action we have had this season were the homegrown systems, Beryl and Debby, which both significantly affected my region.

...What about Category One hurricane Ernesto?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARUBA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow:
In terms of more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development this season, most definitely the Eastern Pacific has fared considerably better than the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic basin has been plagued by the SAL, TUTTs and upper level shear to effectively hinder the development of systems this season. Ernesto has been the only CV tropical cyclone to somehow survive those factors. It looks as if these factors will continue right on as El Nino sets up shop. So far, the only real action we have had this season were the homegrown systems, Beryl and Debby, which both significantly affected my region.

...What about Category One hurricane Ernesto?

You must have overlooked what I stated in my post. Look very carefully at my earlier post. I clearly pointed out that Ernesto has been the only significant Cape Verde tropical cyclone to have survived the hostile conditions in the Atlantic basin. However, in terms of impact to the mainland United States, Beryl and Debby has been the only real action to this point.

[CrazyC83]

Potential Azores threat, like 2006's Gordon?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2012081300, , BEST, 0, 215N, 391W, 25, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest