ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

very likely to a td tomorrow at some point. if not then sunday morning.

You think that fast?

[Aric Dunn]

very likely to a td tomorrow at some point. if not then sunday morning.

You think that fast?

yes. pretty sure we will wake up to a system well on its way. ( already evidence it is.)

[Caribwxgirl]

Anyone gonna answer my question? Should we maybe be focusing on the front portion rather than the back?

[Riptide]

Anyone gonna answer my question? Should we maybe be focusing on the front portion rather than the back?

That convection is just ITCZ(Inter-tropical convergence zone) activity; nothing that could devlope before 94L.

[Caribwxgirl]

Anyone gonna answer my question? Should we maybe be focusing on the front portion rather than the back?

That convection is just ITCZ(Inter-tropical convergence zone) activity; nothing that could devlope before 94L.

Thank you

[KWT]

very likely to a td tomorrow at some point. if not then sunday morning.

Depends on whether the low level flow picks up pace, its already going at a decent clip, could end up suffering like other systems in this area have.

If it doesn't, conditions are good barring the structural issues so you may not be far off the mark, I think Sunday eveing into Monday myself.

Certainly needs very close watching though!

[Aric Dunn]

very likely to a td tomorrow at some point. if not then sunday morning.

Depends on whether the low level flow picks up pace, its already going at a decent clip, could end up suffering like other systems in this area have.

If it doesn't, conditions are good barring the structural issues so you may not be far off the mark, I think Sunday eveing into Monday myself.

Certainly needs very close watching though!

this shouldnt have the same problem the sal is low and this system has is imbedded in a large moisture envelope the others suffered from pulsating convection... as you know if there is deep convection the convergence is good and a circualtion not only can form but maintain, it also means multiple vorts will consolidate easier if sustained convection is present... all said is what appears to going on atm.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 94, 2012081800, , BEST, 0, 111N, 255W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[KWT]

Still rushing westwards at the moment Cycloneye, that won't be changing any time soon from the looks of things, at least not till 60W IMO.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Can Andrew be used as a analog in this case?

[AJC3]

very likely to a td tomorrow at some point. if not then sunday morning.

You think that fast?

yes. pretty sure we will wake up to a system well on its way. ( already evidence it is.)

Tomorrow is too fast, Aric. The wave is fully involved with the ITCZ right now (see ASCAT), and the convection is largely on the front flank of the wave axis, which is a good sign of this being the case. Separation is going to take a couple days. I'd say Sunday would be the earliest shot, but it may take a little longer.

[KWT]

Can Andrew be used as a analog in this case?

Too early to say to be honest, its a possiblity IF the 12z ECM solution ends up coming off.

[Blown Away]

Holy Crud! Just casually running the 18z GFS after being away from the computer and thinking a little farther west and WOW!

[Aric Dunn]

You think that fast?

yes. pretty sure we will wake up to a system well on its way. ( already evidence it is.)

Tomorrow is too fast, Aric. The wave is fully involved with the ITCZ right now (see ASCAT), and the convection is largely on the front flank of the wave axis, which is a good sign of this being the case. Separation is going to take a couple days. I'd say Sunday would be the earliest shot, but it may take a little longer.

I do agree its still involved with the ITCZ. it does not have to take days to break off. it is as you know dependent of deep convection we can get a system to break away from the itcz in much shorter time given the right conditions.

I also did in a following post mention the sunday being the likely day for the nhc to do anything but by definition ( as vague as it is) happens earlier than the official word.

[AJC3]

Tomorrow is too fast, Aric. The wave is fully involved with the ITCZ right now (see ASCAT), and the convection is largely on the front flank of the wave axis, which is a good sign of this being the case. Separation is going to take a couple days. I'd say Sunday would be the earliest shot, but it may take a little longer.

I do agree its still involved with the ITCZ. it does not have to take days to break off. it is as you know dependent of deep convection we can get a system to break away from the itcz in much shorter time given the right conditions.

Right, and the convection is going to have to become more robust near the vort center closer to the cusp of the wave axis, away from the ITCZ. Right now that's not the case. Give it a few days.

[Aric Dunn]

Tomorrow is too fast, Aric. The wave is fully involved with the ITCZ right now (see ASCAT), and the convection is largely on the front flank of the wave axis, which is a good sign of this being the case. Separation is going to take a couple days. I'd say Sunday would be the earliest shot, but it may take a little longer.

I do agree its still involved with the ITCZ. it does not have to take days to break off. it is as you know dependent of deep convection we can get a system to break away from the itcz in much shorter time given the right conditions.

Right, and the convection is going to have to become more robust near the vort center closer to the cusp of the wave axis, away from the ITCZ. Right now that's not the case. Give it a few days.

exactly the convection has weakened today as developing systems typically do. tonight will help us figure things out.

[cycloneye]

Some new popcorn type but nothing significant yet.

[jaxfladude]

Holy Crud! Just casually running the 18z GFS after being away from the computer and thinking a little farther west and WOW!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Getting worried about this system already! Feels like a bad omen for someone.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AJC3]

exactly the convection has weakened today as developing systems typically do. tonight will help us figure things out.

These are the times I really miss QUIK-SCAT. I mean, ASCAT is nice, but not quite what we once had.

[RL3AO]

Quick look and it seems the easterlies aren't quiet as strong in the central Atlantic as they we're. Probably going to be the difference between this system and one like Helene.