ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ouragans]

Its 00Z Best track still isn't out...perhaps we are getting a renumber?

it was the same last night, and 00Z data arrived at 12Z....

[LarryWx]

It is looking good. However, a development into a TD that quickly or soon thereafter would mean an extremely low chance to make it to the US based on model runs (there is no strong high to make it likely that a well developed system would get that far west) as well as climo for storms that form this far east (even lower chance during El Nino's).

El Nino seasons: 19 CV storms formed in August during 33 seasons or ~0.6/August. Out of these 19, only 3 later hit the U.S. (1900's Galveston storm, 1930's storm #2, and 2004's Frances), which equates to a mere 16% U.S. hit rate during Ninos for Aug. formations. Since 1960, there have been 0.8 CV formations/August (14 in 17 Aug.'s) and a mere 7% U.S. hit rate (1 of 14).

*My def. of a CV a storm: a storm that first becomes a TD east of 50W and south of 20N.

IF this does become a TD prior to 50W, I'd give it no more than a 5% chance to make it to the U.S.

For those wanting this to have at least a halfway decent chance of making it to the U.S. or at least pretty far west into the Atlantic basin, the best hope would be for very slow development.

[floridasun78]

this look like may go to be ts Leslie soon

[rainstorm]

some people were saying the MJO is unfavorable now, yet we may have our first major cane and we have kirk, which is likely to be a cane. more quality now than when the MJO was favorable.

[LarryWx]

some people were saying the MJO is unfavorable now, yet we may have our first major cane and we have kirk, which is likely to be a cane. more quality now than when the MJO was favorable.

RS,
Long time, no talk. As you must know, the MJO can be somewhat useful, but it is but one predictive tool among many. I do think it is a bit overrated based on my own studies of seasons since the mid-1970's as I've found numerous exceptions both ways. I've mentioned this in the past.

[ConvergenceZone]

This already looks like it has good outflow going....I would almost bet that it's at least a tropical depression, at least going by satellite presentation.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Came out very late but here it is.

AL, 98, 2012083000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 393W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[rainstorm]

some people were saying the MJO is unfavorable now, yet we may have our first major cane and we have kirk, which is likely to be a cane. more quality now than when the MJO was favorable.

RS,
Long time, no talk. As you must know, the MJO can be somewhat useful, but it is but one predictive tool among many. I do think it is a bit overrated based on my own studies of seasons since the mid-1970's as I've found numerous exceptions both ways. I've mentioned this in the past.

i agree. what do you think for the 2nd half of the season?

[ROCK]

it look like nhc think going to be fish their no flight plan to go 98l their did by now for Isaac in same area

I dont know they task this far out.....I think its 55W before they fly out...

looks like a TD to me....you dont get -80C cloud tops in the MDR without something tapping the surface....JMO of course...

[LarryWx]

some people were saying the MJO is unfavorable now, yet we may have our first major cane and we have kirk, which is likely to be a cane. more quality now than when the MJO was favorable.

RS,
Long time, no talk. As you must know, the MJO can be somewhat useful, but it is but one predictive tool among many. I do think it is a bit overrated based on my own studies of seasons since the mid-1970's as I've found numerous exceptions both ways. I've mentioned this in the past.

i agree. what do you think for the 2nd half of the season?

Big slowdown (vs. the very active first half) in El Nino style. Of course, that's not saying much lol. Also, it being only a weak Nino means it shouldn't be dead. Looking for one or two home brew U.S. threats. By the way, congrats on being the rare recipient of two TC's at home since 2003!

Back on topic. 98L smells quite fishy. It really needs to slow down its development to have even a small chance to impact the U.S.

[rainstorm]

i expect a major to hit they US. the streak has to end sometime.

[SouthDadeFish]

Some strong vorticity at 850mb associated with 98L:



Plus a nice anticyclone right over the storm:



Looking good for development. In my opinion we will probably have a 90%-100% at 2am TWO.

[Aric Dunn]

This should be a depression /ts already... I would suspected an upgrade in the morning.

[Cainer]

Just thought I'd point out that Lee 2005 doesn't have the record for earliest 12th named storm, it was actually Luis 1995, which became a tropical storm on August 29th. Looks like we may surpass Lee's record for 2nd earliest 12th named storm though...

[pricetag56]

This is clearly a td or storm looks almost as good as Issac and almost as large better pray this one recurves

[LarryWx]

This is clearly a td or storm looks almost as good as Issac and almost as large better pray this one recurves

It is looking real good but that in itself would seem to mean too good for its own good lol (if you don't like early recurvers). However, this would be good for your hopes.

[floridasun78]

it look like nhc think going to be fish their no flight plan to go 98l their did by now for Isaac in same area

I dont know they task this far out.....I think its 55W before they fly out...

looks like a TD to me....you dont get -80C cloud tops in the MDR without something tapping the surface....JMO of course...

for Isaac their want out to round 50w i think their think going affect land their may send plane but going fish their wont i notice that before

[pricetag56]

This is clearly a td or storm looks almost as good as Issac and almost as large better pray this one recurves

It is looking real good but that in itself would seem to mean too good for its own good lol (if you don't like early recurvers). However, this would be good for your hopes.

Well i think it would be pretty screwed up to get a monster on top of Issac after everyone went through it and right now this one has the look of one in the making

[Nederlander]

She's definitely got an evil smile on her face like she is up to no good...

[floridasun78]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH