ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[tolakram]

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Very weak LLC if any in my opinion. What's there looks elongated and not very robust.

['CaneFreak]

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Very weak LLC if any in my opinion. What's there looks elongated and not very robust.

Actually, if you look very closely in this latest visible loop, you should be able to see that the low level circulation has actually just gotten pulled SW under the deep convection. Look very closely. This is probably a TD right now.

Edit: Look on the far northeastern corner of the deepest convection. It is just now starting to get pulled into that convection. It's not quite yet under the deepest convection. My apologies.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[GCANE]

Moist mid-level air is starting to fill that dry slot to the north.

LIs are borderline unstable.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... nimwv.html

[GCANE]

Very high rain rate in the cell about 50 min ago

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.94pc.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Very weak LLC if any in my opinion. What's there looks elongated and not very robust.

Actually, if you look very closely in this latest visible loop, you should be able to see that the low level circulation has actually just gotten pulled SW under the deep convection. Look very closely. This is probably a TD right now.

Edit: Look on the far northeastern corner of the deepest convection. It is just now starting to get pulled into that convection. It's not quite yet under the deepest convection. My apologies.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

yeah its quite clear that its slowly becoming better organized. it is right on the edge of low shear. about 50 to 100 wsw to sw of where it is and shear wont be much of problem would likely set up a good channel on the east side.

[otowntiger]

Very high rain rate in the cell about 50 min ago

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.94pc.jpg

Do you think this one has a chance to spin up into something before the front swipes it out of the gulf my way? I see a lot of dry air or shear forcing it southward right now. Is the supposed COC moving with that or is it just getting sheared apart? I guess either way it could be a decent rainmaker for some portions of the peninsula.

[GCANE]

Very high rain rate in the cell about 50 min ago

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.94pc.jpg

Do you think this one has a chance to spin up into something before the front swipes it out of the gulf my way? I see a lot of dry air or shear forcing it southward right now. Is the supposed COC moving with that or is it just getting sheared apart? I guess either way it could be a decent rainmaker for some portions of the peninsula.

How this plays out this afternoon will tell a lot.

[cycloneye]

The latest news is that recon will fly this afternoon. Follow the recon thread for the data as it comes.

[TexWx]

That front better get a move on....

[psyclone]

I am surprised they decided to fly recon. It'll be interesting to see what they find. if this thing organizes and advisories are initiated, coastal warnings would likely be required right away. i still don't think this amounts to much.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinx]

If I understand the plan correctly, the reconnaissance flight is scheduled for tomorrow.

[wxman57]

It doesn't appear to qualify for TD status now. I didn't see the center tucking under the convection in that satellite loop, by the way. It did look like the LLC may have weakened/opened up a bit on that loop, though. Pressures are actually 2mb higher in the area since yesterday. I think we have a high probability of a weak/sheared TD/TS in the NE Gulf tomorrow/Saturday tracking across the FL Peninsula on Sunday as it merges with the front. Should be relatively fast-moving across Florida, meaning less of a rain threat and no wind threat.

[Aric Dunn]

It doesn't appear to qualify for TD status now. I didn't see the center tucking under the convection in that satellite loop, by the way. It did look like the LLC may have weakened/opened up a bit on that loop, though. Pressures are actually 2mb higher in the area since yesterday. I think we have a high probability of a weak/sheared TD/TS in the NE Gulf tomorrow/Saturday tracking across the FL Peninsula on Sunday as it merges with the front. Should be relatively fast-moving across Florida, meaning less of a rain threat and no wind threat.

Its pretty apparent that the circ is closed using the 1km loop. the center has not built or tucked under the convection but shear should relax some today and tomorrow and we should see it be a TD once the LLC becomes a little more symmetric.


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Janie2006]

It's got roughly 36-48 hours before that front really starts making its presence felt. FROPA looks to be Saturday afternoon or early evening across the northern Gulf Coast.

['CaneFreak]

I've seen much worse invests get upgraded to TD, trust me. It has not opened up. In fact, it looks pretty good and is still heading ssw towards the convection. I think this thing heads east with the trough and then the trough lifts out very quickly on the east coast and leaves this thing behind next week off the east coast of FL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It doesn't appear to qualify for TD status now. I didn't see the center tucking under the convection in that satellite loop, by the way. It did look like the LLC may have weakened/opened up a bit on that loop, though. Pressures are actually 2mb higher in the area since yesterday. I think we have a high probability of a weak/sheared TD/TS in the NE Gulf tomorrow/Saturday tracking across the FL Peninsula on Sunday as it merges with the front. Should be relatively fast-moving across Florida, meaning less of a rain threat and no wind threat.

[Aric Dunn]

I've seen much worse invests get upgraded to TD, trust me. It has not opened up. In fact, it looks pretty good and is still heading ssw towards the convection. I think this thing heads east with the trough and then the trough lifts out very quickly on the east coast and leaves this thing behind next week off the east coast of FL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It doesn't appear to qualify for TD status now. I didn't see the center tucking under the convection in that satellite loop, by the way. It did look like the LLC may have weakened/opened up a bit on that loop, though. Pressures are actually 2mb higher in the area since yesterday. I think we have a high probability of a weak/sheared TD/TS in the NE Gulf tomorrow/Saturday tracking across the FL Peninsula on Sunday as it merges with the front. Should be relatively fast-moving across Florida, meaning less of a rain threat and no wind threat.

Yeah its quite possible since it will likely be fairly shallow that the trough will pull it east some to maybe across florida then leave it behind only a couple models actually take it out to sea.

[wxman57]

Don't look for recon to provide much more information than we're already receiving from the numerous surface obs in the northern Gulf. Here's a GARP plot of surface obs/satellite. I identified the LLC with the red crosshairs (28.2N/88.5W). The nearest significant convection is about 100 miles to the SW. Surface winds are peaking out at 25 kts. Lacking any persistent (or any at all) convection near the center, it would not qualify for upgrade to a TD by the NHC's own standards.

Shear may drop off briefly on Saturday morning just before the increasing westerly winds aloft ahead of the cold front reach the disturbance. That would be its best window of opportunity to get convection over the center and perhaps become "Nadine" before it's taken apart by increasing shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Don't look for recon to provide much more information than we're already receiving from the numerous surface obs in the northern Gulf. Here's a GARP plot of surface obs/satellite. I identified the LLC with the red crosshairs (28.2N/88.5W). The nearest significant convection is about 100 miles to the SW. Surface winds are peaking out at 25 kts. Lacking any persistent (or any at all) convection near the center, it would not qualify for upgrade to a TD by the NHC's own standards.

Shear may drop off briefly on Saturday morning just before the increasing westerly winds aloft ahead of the cold front reach the disturbance. That would be its best window of opportunity to get convection over the center and perhaps become "Nadine" before it's taken apart by increasing shear.

[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/90La.gif[/ig]

This buoy recently just reported winds of 42kts. appears to be stronger than it looks. fairly high background pressures could be the reason for it.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42360

[wxman57]

Don't look for recon to provide much more information than we're already receiving from the numerous surface obs in the northern Gulf. Here's a GARP plot of surface obs/satellite. I identified the LLC with the red crosshairs (28.2N/88.5W). The nearest significant convection is about 100 miles to the SW. Surface winds are peaking out at 25 kts. Lacking any persistent (or any at all) convection near the center, it would not qualify for upgrade to a TD by the NHC's own standards.

Shear may drop off briefly on Saturday morning just before the increasing westerly winds aloft ahead of the cold front reach the disturbance. That would be its best window of opportunity to get convection over the center and perhaps become "Nadine" before it's taken apart by increasing shear.

[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/90La.gif[/ig]

This buoy recently just reported winds of 42kts. appears to be stronger than it looks. fairly high background pressures could be the reason for it.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42360

That's about 135nm SW of the LLC in that heavier convection. It's not a NOAA buoy, it's a rig owned by Petrobras. Winds were steady near 15 kts then jumped to 42.7 kts in a squall. Doesn't look representative of winds in the area.

[micktooth]

Good timing for the first big front! Here in Denver the high today will be 90 then the front comes through this evening, low tonight 49, and high tomorrow maybe only 70! This should definitely push anything that might develop out of the Gulf.



Just my opinion, not an official forecast, check with NHC for the real deal.