ATL: SANDY - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM model is going crazy with this system....but notice it's bending away from the United States and well east of Florida on this run at 144 hours:

[T'Bonz]

? One of the two big ones, the Euro, shifted west. I think that the GFS was pretty close to what it was earlier.

The next GFS will be interesting.

Big shift east in the models. This is great news for florida.

[blp]

Looking at the 12z GFS it initializes the low down by 11.5 and 80W and keeps it there until 30hrs later when it starts its move to the NNE. The key is if it passes 80W then we would start to see something different than what is forecasted and we would need to pay closer attention to the CMC which does pass 80W.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfstropical850mbVortSLP000.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfstropical850mbVortSLP030.gif

[NDG]

I think the Euro is on drugs, the problem with its west bias this season continues.

[deltadog03]

Its not that the EURO is on drugs, IMO NDG, its that the euro is phasing Sandy into the trof and morphing it all together. People have to remember its OCT, and different synoptics come into play now. Its no longer just oh, gfs too weak with the ridge (so its east) or euro is too strong with the ridge (so its west) I am NOT saying the euro and CMC solution is right, BUT GFS has a HORRIBLE bias of handing energy off too quickly in the northern stream. We shall see.....

[NDG]

Deltadog03, I do agree with you in some way, but I am just saying at this point I am not trusting the Euro as much because of its track record this season, but you are right, the GFS usually likes to push systems off the NE too quickly.
So perhaps a solution between the two would probably be the outcome, IMO.

[gatorcane]

wow the 18Z GFS is blowing this up once it gets north of Cuba in the SE Bahamas...MUCH stronger on the 18Z.

Here we are 3 days from now:

[gatorcane]

Wow, it keeps getting stronger. Look how deep it is

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS turns this ENE away from the CONUS in the Northern Bahamas. ECMWF does just the opposite with a temporary NW to WNW turn before getting shunted NE.

Will be interesting to see which model gets it right. If the ECMWF does, well I guess it has redeemed itself some this season considering the GFS has done better.

But I wouldn't discount the ECMWF just yet. I can think back to some storms this season such as Isaac where it called for a more westerly track that did end up verifying.

[ROCK]

Dang!! 18Z GFS is bonkers on developement as with all the other models as well...if I lived on the EC or FL I would be getting anxious...


for fun here is the 18Z NOGAPS out 120hr

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[T'Bonz]

S. Florida is warily watching it. Both Euro and GFS a bit west? Ugh.

Dang!! 18Z GFS is bonkers on developement as with all the other models as well...if I lived on the EC or FL I would be getting anxious...

[Aric Dunn]

18Z GFS turns this ENE away from the CONUS in the Northern Bahamas. ECMWF does just the opposite with a temporary NW to WNW turn before getting shunted NE.

Will be interesting to see which model gets it right. If the ECMWF does, well I guess it has redeemed itself some this season considering the GFS has done better.

But I wouldn't discount the ECMWF just yet. I can think back to some storms this season such as Isaac where it called for a more westerly track that did end up verifying.

no both the gfs ans euro turn ene to ne the euro just bends back nw as it transitions. also this run the gfs slowed down a lot between 120 and 144 almost drifting. this is where the euro went nw.

[floridasun78]

look like nhc going out to sea after bahamas models

[chaser1]

look like nhc going out to sea after bahamas models

Hey Floridasun, to further answer your questions from your earlier post (in the discussion "room"), it sure DOES potentially impact future motion verses forecasted motion if Sandy were to either start drifting towards the NE now or on the other hand, if she were to sit there until tomorrow evening before advancing. The mechanics in play are subtle but for one, sooner motion or a more delayed motion might indicate that A) a trough to its NE is either stronger or weaker than expected thus models would have to adjust their forecast based on what they then think might happen. All of the dynamics are so fluid so that a slower or quicker departure might not necessarily create huges differences to the overall forecast, but sometimes 40 miles is a huge distance (just ask the folks in downtown Miami or Ft. Lauderdale after Andrew).

It is entirely reasonable for the cone to slide closer to or possibly over parts of S. Florida. Does not mean that will happen. What would surprise me however, is if the cone does NOT swing a little to the east or a little to the west. Biggest reason is that some of the models might still not yet be "reading" the depth of Sandy, and as the system becomes a bit more vertically aligned, then those models that typically perform well, might likely zero in and even alter their forecasts. Quite frankly, I am expecting the GFS to trend a bit more westward this evening. Now, if that happens we might just see the cone nudge westward a bit. Keep watching, I can almost guarantee you one thing, and that is that whatever you see forecasted right now......., is gonna change. Exactly how no one yet knows, but I think Sandy might supply a surprise or two - we'll see.

[floridasun78]

look like nhc going out to sea after bahamas models

Hey Floridasun, to further answer your questions from your earlier post (in the discussion "room"), it sure DOES potentially impact future motion verses forecasted motion if Sandy were to either start drifting towards the NE now or on the other hand, if she were to sit there until tomorrow evening before advancing. The mechanics in play are subtle but for one, sooner motion or a more delayed motion might indicate that A) a trough to its NE is either stronger or weaker than expected thus models would have to adjust their forecast based on what they then think might happen. All of the dynamics are so fluid so that a slower or quicker departure might not necessarily create huges differences to the overall forecast, but sometimes 40 miles is a huge distance (just ask the folks in downtown Miami or Ft. Lauderdale after Andrew).

It is entirely reasonable for the cone to slide closer to or possibly over parts of S. Florida. Does not mean that will happen. What would surprise me however, is if the cone does NOT swing a little to the east or a little to the west. Biggest reason is that some of the models might still not yet be "reading" the depth of Sandy, and as the system becomes a bit more vertically aligned, then those models that typically perform well, might likely zero in and even alter their forecasts. Quite frankly, I am expecting the GFS to trend a bit more westward this evening. Now, if that happens we might just see the cone nudge westward a bit. Keep watching, I can almost guarantee you one thing, and that is that whatever you see forecasted right now......., is gonna change. Exactly how no one yet knows, but I think Sandy might supply a surprise or two - we'll see.

cone have more bit more to west .now over western bahamas

[somethingfunny]

That's four straight on the Euro.

[Hurricaneman]

That's four straight on the Euro.

Shows landfall on long island as a sub950 subtropical storm, that would be pretty bad if it happened which I really dont think it will at that strength, but the track hasnt really waivered that much, the only diffrence I can see is that it phases with the first shortwave instead of the second

[weatherwindow]

IMHO, the 10/23 00Z Euro has shifted very marginally east...Northwestern Bahamas are not seeing a center passage...the apparent motion north of Cuba and south of 25deg N is due N w/o the earlier westerly component
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[GCANE]

Should have a nearly ideal poleward outflow channel once Sandy gets in the northern Bahamas

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displ ... all&hours=

[DESTRUCTION5]

06Z says windy in SFL