ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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Evil Jeremy
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#1021 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:27 am

That is a very big shift for the CMC. If the EURO has a similar change of heart, then the playing field becomes leveled. This must be a headache for the NHC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1022 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:32 am

Yeah..Canadian goes straight north right into Arkansas....indicative of the heat ridge breaking down.

Well see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1023 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:34 am

nhc been going with west bound models i notice
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1024 Postby caneman » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:35 am

Can anyone give me a reason why CMC is even been given any credence in this thread? Further, take a look at what is happening now and GFS has been about spot on. As Bryan Norcross stated, while the Euro has been one of the most accurate for the last couple of years, they've also had some epic fails too. As always, follow the blend.
Last edited by caneman on Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1025 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:36 am

that is a shift for sure but still way west of the GFS stall, birth of Ernesto and east solution... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1026 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:37 am

Been waiting for a run like CMC. Looks like GFS ensembles.
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#1027 Postby Janie2006 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:38 am

I'm quite curious to see the next run of the EURO....not that I necesarily think it'll follow the CMC. If that scenario pans out, however, it could be a harbinger of a large shift from the left more towards the center. OTOH, it could keep saying the same thing it's said for days now.


*shrug*
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1028 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:39 am

Where do you see the Euro going, staying put, shifts east towards Louisiana or more of a GFS solution towards Florida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1029 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:40 am

caneman wrote:Can anyone give me a reason why CMC is even been given any credence in this thread? Further, take a look at what is happening now (which isn't much) and GFS has been about spot on.



maybe because the CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET, NAM, EURO have all been showing a west solution rather than the east GFS solution. thats 5 against 1..... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1030 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:41 am

ROCK wrote:
caneman wrote:Can anyone give me a reason why CMC is even been given any credence in this thread? Further, take a look at what is happening now (which isn't much) and GFS has been about spot on.



maybe because the CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET, NAM, EURO have all been showing a west solution rather than the east GFS solution. thats 5 against 1..... :lol:

But what if the GFS is so bad ass that it can take on all 5 of those models ;)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1031 Postby vaffie » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:41 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Where do you see the Euro going, staying put, shifts east towards Louisiana or more of a GFS solution towards Florida


The Euro, UKMET, and CMC tend to cluster together, so since both the UKMET and CMC have shifted north/east, so most likely will the Euro--towards the upper Texas coast. The NOGAPS is usually on the left, the GFS/GFDL/HWRF on the right of the Euro/UKMET/CMC cluster.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1032 Postby vaffie » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:42 am

Kingarabian wrote:
ROCK wrote:
caneman wrote:Can anyone give me a reason why CMC is even been given any credence in this thread? Further, take a look at what is happening now (which isn't much) and GFS has been about spot on.



maybe because the CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET, NAM, EURO have all been showing a west solution rather than the east GFS solution. thats 5 against 1..... :lol:

But what if the GFS is so bad ass that it can take on all 5 of those models ;)


If it was so good, the NHC wouldn't be getting ready to toss it in two years.
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#1033 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:43 am

Look at the spread of the Ensembles in just 54hrs of lead time......Those contours represent 1004mb isobars :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1034 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:43 am

Kingarabian wrote:
ROCK wrote:
caneman wrote:Can anyone give me a reason why CMC is even been given any credence in this thread? Further, take a look at what is happening now (which isn't much) and GFS has been about spot on.



maybe because the CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET, NAM, EURO have all been showing a west solution rather than the east GFS solution. thats 5 against 1..... :lol:

But what if the GFS is so bad ass that it can take on all 5 of those models ;)



true...it has been roided up!!.....lets see if the EURO bites... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1035 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:43 am

00Z Canadian would be bad for Nola

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1036 Postby Brent » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:44 am

2am TWO, remains at 80:


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 175
MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENNISULA. RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW
REMAINS QUITE BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS
ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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#1037 Postby Cainer » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:44 am

Image

Little swirl clearly visible around 24N 88W... Convection firing, but still well to the east. Could this be the burst that allows the system to tighten up? Time will tell!
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#1038 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:44 am

GFDL is out, Alabama landfall:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1039 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:45 am

did the CMC slow down? 126hrs is like next wed into southern LA?
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#1040 Postby lebron23 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:46 am

FWIW

Found this on Joe Bastardis Twitter page.

http://firsthandweather.com/wp-content/ ... 6/debb.png
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