ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

Overall structure contiunes to slowly organize...Some modest NE shear presently. Once that abates on Wednesday we may have a very looking system then today...Probablly been a minimal storm since last night.

[Gustywind]

21/1745 UTC 15.3N 53.0W T2.0/2.0 09L
21/1145 UTC 15.1N 51.7W T2.0/2.0 09L

[latitude_20]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT

[Weatherboy1]

Latest modelling trending a bit more south and west, with a more gentle turn to the WNW or NW at the end of the 5-7 day period. Could this end up being a Georges (1998) kind of track I wonder?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1998atl.gif

Or is it more like Cleo (1964), with a much more pronounced turn at the end of the forecast period. Hmmm!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1964atl.gif

Watching and waiting as always!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 21/1800 UTC IS NEAR 15.3N 53.2W...OR
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF GUADELOUPE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 52W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 52W-58W. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN INITIATED BY THE INDIVIDUAL GOVERNMENTS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE NORTHWARD.

[Jevo]

With the 12Z Euro this board is going to be hoppin soon

Latest satellite derived winds look pretty interesting

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, our LLC is moving NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to Tropical Storm Issac

AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS

[Frank2]

Isaac (sp)...

P.S. Isaac was the oldest of the Biblical prophets...

[SeminoleWind]

12z Best Track up to Tropical Storm Issac

[b]AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS
[/b]

was wondering how long it would take since they have found some T.S. winds in there.

[Weatherboy1]

Sooooooo looks like we've got our "I" storm at 5 p.m. eh? Gotta love recon! I still don't think we're going to see rapid intensification or anything, but steady strengthening seems like a decent bet. Worth pointing out it's about to cross over the 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees F) line so SSTs are only getting warmer. If it can mix out more of that dry air, it's gonna pop. My opinion, as always ...

[latitude_20]

So an upgrade is imminent, correct?

[tolakram]

So an upgrade is imminent, correct?

NHC makes the final decision and it will be officially upgraded once the advisory comes out.

[Vortex]

So an upgrade is imminent, correct?

99.9%

[Gustywind]

Even the journalists who are not forecasters... seems very confident about Issac arrival in Guadeloupe . Let's continue to monitor closely the situation as something is surely cooking not so far from the Leewards.


WEATHER GUADELOUPE

Yellow vigilance Isaac closer
franceantilles.fr 21.08.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php

11 AM, the center was located about 930 km east of Guadeloupe. The depression is expected to strengthen to tropical storm stage today. Its planned trajectory through Guadeloupe, the center of the phenomenon should reach our archipelago in afternoon or evening of Wednesday.

The depression is expected to strengthen to tropical storm stage today. Its planned trajectory through the Guadeloupe, the center of the phenomenon should reach our archipelago in afternoon or evening of Wednesday. 11 AM, the Center was located about 930 km east of Guadeloupe.
First stormy showers arrived as early as the next night and continue into Wednesday. They intensify and become more sustainable in the night of Wednesday to Thursday and Thursday day. Accumulations of rainfall may exceed 100 mm / 24 hours at many points, as well Wednesday as Thursday.
Today and tomorrow, the wind blows moderately from Northeast but temporarily boosts grain stormy passage. The wind became more sustained after the passage of the depression centre on the night of Wednesday to Thursday. He then swung South-South-East, and blows between 50 and 60 km/h of average with gusts in the order of 80-100 km/h.
The sea is widening gradually tomorrow during the day. Average lows are around 2 m 50 Wednesday evening, then 3 m 3 m 50 Thursday morning with waves max 6 m in a swell of Northeast and then East. Cross-swell phenomena make the chaotic sea. In Caribbean, hollow of 2 m are expected Thursday in a main Southeast swell.
Heavy rains expected may cause disturbances: flooding, overflow of streams and gullies,... and make difficult traffic conditions.

[floridasun78]

you all still think south fl could be in cone by thur?

[Stormlover2012]

lol thats what storms do

[otowntiger]

12z Best Track up to Tropical Storm Issac

AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS

Time for a spelling lesson everyone! Since I have a son by the same name I've had to learn this the hard way: No matter how badly you'll want to put 2 's's it is only one, but 2 'a's. 'Isaac'. Thanks. Now back to your regularly schedulred programming.

[artist]

GUSTY -
and all on the islands - stay safe and check in when you can.

[SouthFLTropics]

you all still think south fl could be in cone by thur?

I think South Florida will be in the cone by 11:00PM tonight...The question is whether or not we will stay there. I have been in the cone many times only to have it shift and go elsewhere. 5 day cone is normally right where you want to be.

SFT