ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

FLZ023>025-030>033-037-038-GAZ136-152>154-164>166-271930-
BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-
CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-NASSAU-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-UNION-WAYNE-
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE
INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TEMPORARY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT BANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL AREA OF
BERYL...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COASTLINE SOMETIME BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THIS BAND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$

[Hurricane Andrew]

That's 345pm edt, Cycloneeye. 1945z=345pm edt.
----
Vis Sat
Go to "Observations", and go to vis sat.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[Hurricane Andrew]

Another vis still.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

[northjaxpro]

Mayport Naval Station reported wind gust to 40 mph and a pressure of 29.86 and falling in the past hour.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yet another visible image.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[northjaxpro]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
FLZ023>025-030>033-037-038-GAZ136-152>154-164>166 -271930-
BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-
CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-NASSAU-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-UNION-WAYNE-
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE
INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TEMPORARY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT BANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL AREA OF
BERYL...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COASTLINE SOMETIME BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THIS BAND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

[Hurricane Andrew]

What is the reduction rate for winds at these hieghts to surface winds?
10k feet
15k feet
20kfeet

[Dean4Storms]

With its current presentation via satellite and radar it has to be stronger than when Recon was there this morning. I would say a 70mph storm now.


Of course this is my opinion and you should get all your information from official sources!!!

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you Dean.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL STRONGER...NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA..INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERYL HAS STRENGTHENED AND NOW
HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON
MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...
150 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH...83
KM/H. A COASTAL MARINE AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE AT ST. AUGUSTINE
RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH...67 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[Bocadude85]

With its current presentation via satellite and radar it has to be stronger than when Recon was there this morning. I would say a 70mph storm now.


Of course this is my opinion and you should get all your information from official sources!!!

If recon finds a 70mph storm I would think a hurricane watch or warning would be necessary.. assuming beryl has transitioned to fully tropical

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..BERYL STRONGER...NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[northjaxpro]

Not surprised that NHC now made the call this fully tropical based on the buoy reports and satellite imagery.

65 mph now. Beryl really making the most of sitting over that Gulf Stream currently. It will be a very close call if it can attain hurricane status, but Beryl is running out of time and will be approaching the cooler shelf water near the coast in the next 3-6 hours.

[Dave]

(1:58 PM) NHC continues Tropical Storm Warning for Beaufort, Coastal Colleton, Coastal Jasper, Inland Jasper [SC] and Coastal Volusia County, Duval, Flagler, Nassau, St. Johns [FL] and Coastal Bryan, Coastal Camden, Coastal Chatham, Coastal Glynn, Coastal Liberty, Coastal McIntosh, Inland Bryan, Inland Camden, Inland Chatham, Inland Glynn, Inland Liberty, Inland McIntosh [GA] till further notice.

[Dave]

BUOY: 41012
MAY 27 13:50 EDT
TEMP: 75 F
PRESSURE: 753.76 MMHG
SPEED 40 MPH FROM NNW (350)
DEWP: 71 F
WATER TEMP: 78 F
WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5 METERS EVERY 08 SECONDS

[Mouton]

Surprised there is no hurricane watch or warning up....just below hurricane status, pressure dropping and storm not on shore yet.

What are the odds for such a warning at 5?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Dave, recon is supposed to take off at 345 EDT, right?

[ronjon]

Buoy 40 nm east of St Aug:
Pressure now down to 29.60 and falling rapidly


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41012&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

I think Beryl's about maxed out on intensity with 78 deg water approaching rapidly. She might make it to 70 mph TS. All depends on what the HHs find later this afternoon. Based on the NHCs movement now, a midnight LF.

[FutureEM]

Curious question here guys? Why are they only flying Air Force planes into Beryl, typically with a landfalling system like this don't they alternate between AF and NOAA? I haven't seen any NOAA recon yet for this system at all.

[psyclone]

interesting to note all of the showers and thunderstorms popping up with the aid of daytime heating inland now extend from the savannah river all the way down to the orlando area...and that coverage area is increasing as the system pulls closer. meanwhile the coast near the likely landfall area still has some dry time left with bands remaining just offshore.