ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

Surprised there is no hurricane watch or warning up....just below hurricane status, pressure dropping and storm not on shore yet.

What are the odds for such a warning at 5?

Well, they may consider doing that on the next advisory at 5:00. Recon is scheduled to fly out shortly and the interesting aspect of this is Beryl probably has only about 2-4 more hours max over that Gulf Stream. By the time recon arrives out there later this afternoon, Beryl may have already peaked out in intensity. We will find out soon.

[cycloneye]

The wrapping of convection continues.

[CronkPSU]

got really dark and really windy, first outer band about to hit NW Orange County/Orlando area

[HurricaneBrain]

Beryl still has about 10 hours left before landfall, I suspect a borderline hurricane/tropical storm by then. Regardless, hurricane watches should be posted soon.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is recon flying out of Keesler again?

[AdamFirst]

Looks very impressive. I would not be surprised if this made it to hurricane status, but time is indeed running out before it hits the cool shelf waters.

[kiblet]

First wave of showers came through Gainesville just about thirty minutes ago. It wasn't much, but there are a few bigger waves stacking up behind each other. Next one is almost here already. Thank God for rain!

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see 2 degree's making much of a difference with the SST's and I also think the warm continental air now being tapped may make up for the difference. I think steady deepening until landfall and a hurricane very plausible. Keep in mind the deeper convection now should also aid in the winds getting down to the surface. Much different storm now compared to 12 hours ago!!!


Just my opinion and you should get all your info. from official sources!!

[Dean4Storms]

Beryl still has about 10 hours left before landfall, I suspect a borderline hurricane/tropical storm by then. Regardless, hurricane watches should be posted soon.

They would have to go straight to Warnings given the time before landfall.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Whether there are cooler shelf waters or not to the west of Beryl doesn't matter to me. Even if convection weakens just a little on the western side, if recon finds hurricane force winds on the east side, it could definitely be upgraded.

[AdamFirst]

Beryl enhancing storms to the south. Banding features are developing over the south-central peninsula, heading toward the east-northeast.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
158 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

FLZ058-271845-
OKEECHOBEE-
158 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT.

AT 154 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BASINGER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

[northjaxpro]

Whether there are cooler shelf waters or not to the west of Beryl doesn't matter to me. Even if convection weakens just a little on the western side, if recon finds hurricane force winds on the east side, it could definitely be upgraded.

If Recon finds hurricane force winds , they may indeed upgrade it. It will be a very close call with this.

Also, I am beginning to worry that with Beryl strengthening a bit more we will have winds in the 60 mph+ rande in feederbands rotataing through later tonight as beryl landfalls. That is definitely strong enough to cause power outages and downed trees and lines. Hope not to lose power as I try to keep you all updated on the conditions here in Jax area.

[sponger]

Our buoy 40 nm offshore is showing sustained at 35 kts with gusts to 42!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

[jdray]

65mph now and Tropical. Not much time to hit higher. Can she make it?

NWS JAX has gusts forecast to 60mph with me 35 miles from the coast tonight, and forecast TS sustained winds, up about 10-15mph more than earlier forecasts.

12z GFS shows me in the rainshield and bands for 60+ hours as she stalls near the big bend and heads back. Be interesting to see rainfall with this storm.


TS Warnings now include:
BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-UNION. (Florida)
BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-WAYNE. (Georgia)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/text.php?pil=AFD&sid=JAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
153 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BERYL APPROACHING...WILL MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BERYL HAS ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS ENTERING THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE WEST OF THE
CENTER. OUTER BANDS ARE MOVING INLAND...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST...AND FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH INTO THE MORNING...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AFTN AS THE STORM GRADUALLY WEAKENS TO A
DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE
COAST TO ALL BUT FAR INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH WIND OR LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES FAR INLAND. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE FROM OVER LAND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. WILL FAVOR LIKELY PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL THIS SYSTEM EXITS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE
HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MID WEEK KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

[sponger]

I don't see 2 degree's making much of a difference with the SST's and I also think the warm continental air now being tapped may make up for the difference. I think steady deepening until landfall and a hurricane very plausible. Keep in mind the deeper convection now should also aid in the winds getting down to the surface. Much different storm now compared to 12 hours ago!!!


Just my opinion and you should get all your info. from official sources!!

Humid as can be here and roasting!

[Mouton]

Looking off shore from Fernandina Beach, the clouds look really nasty now....much thicker than two hours ago. Sunshine also a thing of the past right at the coast. Winds picking up.

Fernandina Beach harbor readings now:
Winds NNE at 15kts, gusts to 25.
Barometer 29.83 and dropping.
No rain, yet.

At my home, winds are noticeably picking up now too. Still not the force of last weeks brush with Alberto when they were a constant 25+ knots on the river...a great sailing day.

Went by Publix, the mad dash for supplies has begun!!

[jdray]

I don't see 2 degree's making much of a difference with the SST's and I also think the warm continental air now being tapped may make up for the difference. I think steady deepening until landfall and a hurricane very plausible. Keep in mind the deeper convection now should also aid in the winds getting down to the surface. Much different storm now compared to 12 hours ago!!!


Just my opinion and you should get all your info. from official sources!!

Humid as can be here and roasting!

Yup, its the sucking in of the moisture to the storm. 74% humidity here in Clay County at 82F @ 2PM.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just amazing, we are watching a storm that could perhaps make landfall as a hurricane, and its MAY 27.

[sweetpea]

Weather here in Ormond Beach is a bit weird. Will have a quick squall come thru, then the sun comes out in between squalls. Love it though, the rain is so needed. Everyone stay safe!

[CrazyC83]

This would be the earliest land falling hurricane if it makes it?