ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[stormhunter7]

Euro appears its going west in 00z.. up 72hrs

[ROCK]

west to Texas again....996mb TS probably....

[Big O]

west to Texas again....996mb TS probably....

Actually 992 mb

[ROCK]

so still a split camp tonight....maybe tomorrow will bring a consensus:lol:

[lebron23]

Euro made landfall between BRO and CRP

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO 120 hours out, already inland after Texas landfall.

[caneman]

Looks like Euro is taking it further North on this run before going West?

[vaffie]

What bothers me is how the EURO negatively align the high pressure on Wednesday over the Midwest, so that Debbie starts to curve north at the end. If she is delayed just a tad or the high is slightly weaker as in the last CMC run, it will be moving northwest towards the upper Texas coast at that time.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF and UKMET almost identical thru 96hrs than diverge from their.....(UKMET has it in the Houston area and ECMWF to South Texas)

0zECMWF forecast valid for Tuesday Evening.

[vaffie]

That little naked swirl that we were laughing at earlier is developing some beautiful low cloud banding structures now. The cloud tops around the center have not started really cooling yet, but it is developing a nice compact organized structure. I wonder if this will turn out to be the new center by tomorrow.

[stormhunter7]

upper winds over that vortex came hauling by.. looks like dry air over it is filling it with moisture in upper levels...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html (less black over the vortex) almost want to say there is ULL trying to pop, to se of Houston?

[ROCK]

upper winds over that vortex came hauling by.. looks like dry air over it is filling it with moisture in upper levels...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html (less black over the vortex) almost want to say there is ULL trying to pop, to se of Houston?

nice low level convergence going on now....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Jevo]

0z HWRF, GFS, and GFDL tracks

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So there was a little shift north in track for the cmc,Houston area to around morgan city area. Not a huge shift but a shift nonetheless. Euro stayed pretty much status quo. Gfs = garbage.Will go with blend of real models and say upper tx coast to central la look to be prime target zone. Regardless looks like we have the potential to get some serious rains next week if the cmc euro and others are remotely close to being correct.

[caneman]

So there was a little shift north in track for the cmc,Houston area to around morgan city area. Not a huge shift but a shift nonetheless. Euro stayed pretty much status quo. Gfs = garbage.Will go with blend of real models and say upper tx coast to central la look to be prime target zone. Regardless looks like we have the potential to get some serious rains next week if the cmc euro and others are remotely close to being correct.

Disagree. Real models? You mean like CMC? Anyone else see that ULL forming on the Texas coast?

[bamajammer4eva]

Who's to say the system doesn't go straight north and wait to turn East or West until reaching the Northern Gulf coast shoreline?? Then the Central AND the Eastern or Western Gulf coasts get in on the fun.

[caneman]

Who's to say the system doesn't go straight north and wait to turn East or West until reaching the Northern Gulf coast shoreline?? Then the Central AND the Eastern or Western Gulf coasts get in on the fun.

That is what I'm thinking. MS. and East. You have to actually look at what is taking place as well from satellite and not just models. Moving North, ULL setting up on Texas coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

So there was a little shift north in track for the cmc,Houston area to around morgan city area.

Since when is Houston to Morgan City a "little shift"? This was a hefty change for the CMC. Question is though, was it a fluke, or the start of a trend?

EDIT: It's also not just the point of landfall, but the angle of the landfalling system. Overall, it was a big change for the CMC, who has spent the past few days hitting Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

Who's to say the system doesn't go straight north and wait to turn East or West until reaching the Northern Gulf coast shoreline?? Then the Central AND the Eastern or Western Gulf coasts get in on the fun.

That is what I'm thinking. MS. and East. You have to actually look at what is taking place as well from satellite and not just models. Moving North, ULL setting up on Texas coast.

There isn't an ULL on the Texas coast. There is no chance of rain here tomorrow and ULL's bring at least some scattered rain to areas around it.

[caneman]

So there was a little shift north in track for the cmc,Houston area to around morgan city area.

Since when is Houston to Morgan City a "little shift"? This was a hefty change for the CMC. Question is though, was it a fluke, or the start of a trend?Anyone have the

EDIT: It's also not just the point of landfall, but the angle of the landfalling system. Overall, it was a big change for the CMC, who has spent the past few days hitting Texas.

Well stated and better than I did. In so far, the GFS has been the Eastern most solution and right so far. I really can't see it going North and diving SW. While I don't have proof, this just doesn't seem likely in June. Anyone have a link for storms that originate this time of year and in this location for a history of where they usually go?