ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[thundercam96]

I don't see 2 degree's making much of a difference with the SST's and I also think the warm continental air now being tapped may make up for the difference. I think steady deepening until landfall and a hurricane very plausible. Keep in mind the deeper convection now should also aid in the winds getting down to the surface. Much different storm now compared to 12 hours ago!!!


Just my opinion and you should get all your info. from official sources!!

Humid as can be here and roasting!

Yup, its the sucking in of the moisture to the storm. 74% humidity here in Clay County at 82F @ 2PM.

Its 76 Now In Daytona Beach With 96% Humidity... With Winds West At 16mph

[cycloneye]

This would be the earliest land falling hurricane if it makes it?

You think it may do a last run for it?

[tropicwatch]

Uncharacteristicaly the winds are currently out of the North here in Panama City and no sign of a seebreaze. Has the temperatures here pushing 100+. Hopefully Beryl pushes West far enough to give us some rain in a day or two. I do believe it has a good chance to reach hurricane strength.

Tropicwatch

[jdray]

Just amazing, we are watching a storm that could perhaps make landfall as a hurricane, and its MAY 27.

And not only possibly making it to Hurricane strength, but hitting NE Florida as one. Been a long time since any strength has hit here.
Either way, Memorial day is toast for any activities from St Augustine to St Marys. They have cancelled most activities related to memorial day.

[cycloneye]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Even if the plane that will fly into Beryl later this afternoon and evening does find 75mph winds, I think one could make a good case for the NHC not upgrading to a hurricane. Realistically, the difference on the ground between a 70mph TS and a 75mph hurricane is negligible to non-existent, and classifying a hurricane has the potential to cause some panic, which is something you don't want before a storm. If this is the case, they may wait until post-season analysis to make the upgrade.

[sponger]

I don't think Jacksonville residents are as prepared for this as they should be. They have always had a false sense of security in most of N FL, but especially in Jax. During Jeane we lost power for a week while a lot of people in Jacksonville never lost power.

As for my preps, 12 gallons for the generator, 200 bucks in cash, a full tank in the van, fridge turned up to max, 1 and 1/2 propane, both cells fully charged, all laundry and dishes done, water heater cranked up to 160 (no touch rule for all 4 kids) Heading to the liquor store to finalize my preps!

[jdray]

You have a good point there. This last minute stuff always catches people off guard, upgrading means more of a public freak out for a lot of people.

BTW, anyone have a spare transmitter for a Lacrosse Weather Station? Mines not working... lol, figures.

[jdray]

I don't think Jacksonville residents are as prepared for this as they should be. They have always had a false sense of security in most of N FL, but especially in Jax. During Jeane we lost power for a week while a lot of people in Jacksonville never lost power.

As for my preps, 12 gallons for the generator, 200 bucks in cash, a full tank in the van, fridge turned up to max, 1 and 1/2 propane, both cells fully charged, all laundry and dishes done, water heater cranked up to 160 (no touch rule for all 4 kids) Heading to the liquor store to finalize my preps!

Yup, we lost power from Frances and Jeanne, 3-5 days depending upon storm. Had plenty of dry goods and propane and water, so we just waited out the winds and rain for a few days.

Even though just a strong TS, that doesn't mean no loss of power for up to a day or so depending upon what broke.
Hell, strong summer TStorms will do that as well.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Panic or not, I hope the NHC would be straightforward and upfront about the intensity of the storm.

[ROCK]

you guys harping on cooler shelf waters...this map would suggest it doesnt really matter.....still potential to make cat 1 IMO....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[thundercam96]

Panic or not, I hope the NHC would be straightforward and upfront about the intensity of the storm.

Agreed

[ohiostorm]

Looks like outer bands are now moving into the Orlando area. Winds have started to pick up and it is now sprinkling.

[FutureEM]

Panic or not, I hope the NHC would be straightforward and upfront about the intensity of the storm.

As a scientist, that is what one would hope...but in actuality the NHC would do that, and they have done it in the past as well. The most notable incident being the 1991 "Perfect Storm" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Perfect_Storm) the NHC purposely did not name the storm and only declared it a hurricane post season.

['CaneFreak]

The NOAA plane is usually used for surveying around the the storm but there is no need for that data in this case as we have plenty of data coming in from buoys, surface observations, etc.

Edit: Plane is taking off in 20 minutes

Curious question here guys? Why are they only flying Air Force planes into Beryl, typically with a landfalling system like this don't they alternate between AF and NOAA? I haven't seen any NOAA recon yet for this system at all.

[ocala]

Finally had a a band come through southern Marion County.
Man you know it's coming when that humidity blasts you in the face.

[HurricaneBrain]

But upgrading a storm based on intensity would cause residents to become more cautious instead of them thinking "Oh, it's just a tropical storm, no big deal." The word "hurricane" catches people more than "tropical storm".

[Evil Jeremy]

But upgrading a storm based on intensity would cause residents to become more cautious instead of them thinking "Oh, it's just a tropical storm, no big deal." The word "hurricane" catches people more than "tropical storm".

While I agree that if this becomes a hurricane, the NHC should recognize it as such, there's not much time for extra preparations that would happen from people becoming more cautious.

[northjaxpro]

I don't think Jacksonville residents are as prepared for this as they should be. They have always had a false sense of security in most of N FL, but especially in Jax. During Jeane we lost power for a week while a lot of people in Jacksonville never lost power.

As for my preps, 12 gallons for the generator, 200 bucks in cash, a full tank in the van, fridge turned up to max, 1 and 1/2 propane, both cells fully charged, all laundry and dishes done, water heater cranked up to 160 (no touch rule for all 4 kids) Heading to the liquor store to finalize my preps!

Totally agree. I prepared yesterday and i hope others did as well.

I just received the first significant feederband to rate through my location in Jax. picked up about 2/10 of an inch. North winds still gusting at times over 30mph. Conditions will steadily detiorate from here on out.

[Evil Jeremy]

Katrina only became officially upgraded to a hurricane 2 hours before it's landfall in SE FL. The NHC will upgrade, no matter how close to landfall, if they have the data to back it up.

[FutureEM]

But upgrading a storm based on intensity would cause residents to become more cautious instead of them thinking "Oh, it's just a tropical storm, no big deal." The word "hurricane" catches people more than "tropical storm".

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Say beryl does reach the 75 mph threshold, if that happens at least imo it should be declared a hurricane as that is the scientific approach. If the NHC does not upgrade it, like cyclone suggests could possibly happen then they are probably doing it to prevent chaos from the tourists or other people who are not familiar with tropical cyclones. The highways would be choked with tourists trying to escape, and there would be a bigger mess on the local governments hands.