ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Blinhart]

Yeah since I've seen the more regular readings in the Recon flight I have no doubt they will go to TS Ernesto.

To the Pro-Mets on here just because all the other sites for Best Track say TS Ernesto, does that mean that the NHC has to do the same thing??

I know the argument is mute for this instance, because only a fool wouldn't upgrade this to a TS with all the evidence they have now, but for other systems where some computer models and other sites say the system is a 40mph Storm and the NHC is just not sure if it is just to pull the trigger to upgrade a system to TS do they have to?

[Dave]

[christchurchguy]

Coming into view on radar

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[cycloneye]

WTNT25 KNHC 022031
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 56.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 56.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 55.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 59.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.2N 62.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 65.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.2N 68.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 56.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[T'Bonz]

It already says Ernesto at the NHC.

[HurricaneBelle]

It's official:

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

[Blown Away]

If TD5 develops/deepens quicker than expected, IMO I still think that ridging is strong enough to drive this to the Yucatan before any significant NW turn. So I think the shallow vs deep system doesn't matter much over the next 5 days.

[timmeister]

NHC issuing advisories on TS ERNESTO

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Blinhart]

It's official:

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

So most of these Islands will change from Yellow Alert to Orange Alert (if I remember the correct level of alerts for the islands)??
I think they are trying to figure out how to word the next couple advisories depending on what happens in the next few hours.

Does anyone think they might raise some Hurricane Watches/Warning by the 11pm Advisory???

[cycloneye]

Hurricane in Western Caribbean.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

[Blinhart]

Did I read right in the last Advisory says Ernesto has 45 Kt winds, wouldn't that equate to 50 or so MPH?

[Texashawk]

Wow... the NHC has the official advisory wind speed at 50 MPH already. That's some serious intensification!!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022035
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20120802
202700 1343N 05652W 9771 00266 0072 +245 +206 025030 031 026 003 00
202730 1341N 05652W 9769 00268 0071 +245 +207 020028 028 023 002 00
202800 1339N 05652W 9768 00266 0070 +245 +208 020027 029 017 002 03
202830 1338N 05650W 9776 00261 0070 +245 +209 021026 026 019 002 00
202900 1336N 05649W 9770 00266 0070 +245 +209 018025 027 019 001 00
202930 1335N 05648W 9768 00267 0070 +245 +209 014024 025 018 002 00
203000 1333N 05647W 9771 00264 0069 +245 +210 016025 025 018 001 03
203030 1332N 05646W 9772 00262 0068 +245 +210 019024 025 017 002 00
203100 1331N 05645W 9768 00266 0068 +245 +210 017024 025 020 001 00
203130 1329N 05644W 9772 00261 0067 +245 +210 016024 025 018 001 00
203200 1328N 05642W 9770 00263 0066 +245 +210 013025 026 018 001 00
203230 1326N 05641W 9772 00259 0065 +245 +210 014024 024 012 003 00
203300 1325N 05640W 9774 00258 0065 +245 +210 013024 025 014 002 00
203330 1323N 05639W 9768 00262 0064 +245 +210 011024 024 015 003 00
203400 1322N 05638W 9769 00262 0064 +245 +211 007023 024 018 002 00
203430 1320N 05637W 9772 00258 0064 +245 +211 008024 024 013 002 00
203500 1319N 05635W 9770 00259 0063 +245 +211 009023 024 013 001 00
203530 1317N 05634W 9769 00259 0063 +245 +211 010022 023 011 002 00
203600 1316N 05633W 9769 00259 0062 +247 +211 011019 021 008 003 03
203630 1315N 05632W 9772 00259 0063 +250 +211 015019 020 007 003 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[SunnyThoughts]

So most of these Islands will change from Yellow Alert to Orange Alert (if I remember the correct level of alerts for the islands)??
I think they are trying to figure out how to word the next couple advisories depending on what happens in the next few hours.

Does anyone think they might raise some Hurricane Watches/Warning by the 11pm Advisory???

Well, I'm not sure how much longer recon will stay on location...and I don't think they are scheduled to go back out until tomorrow sometime, so I don't think they will go so far as to issue hurricane watches/warnings until recon can verify there is actual hurricane force winds, or at least closer to hurricane force winds than there is now.

[hurricanes1234]

Cloud tops have cooled during the past 30 minutes. Wait, what? I KNEW IT! ERNESTO IS HERE!

[cycloneye]

Discussion came out late.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE
IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 270/19. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.2N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.6N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 18.5N 83.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that Ernesto can turn into a Major Hurricane?

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022045
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20120802
203700 1314N 05630W 9770 00261 0064 +250 +211 011018 018 008 002 03
203730 1313N 05628W 9770 00262 0064 +250 +211 006016 017 007 003 03
203800 1312N 05627W 9772 00259 0064 +250 +211 005014 015 002 004 03
203830 1312N 05625W 9769 00264 0066 +250 +212 005013 013 001 002 03
203900 1311N 05623W 9768 00264 0066 +250 +212 003012 012 001 003 00
203930 1311N 05622W 9773 00259 0066 +250 +212 004011 011 002 004 03
204000 1311N 05620W 9771 00262 0065 +250 +212 001009 010 /// /// 03
204030 1311N 05618W 9772 00258 0065 +250 +212 003007 008 000 003 03
204100 1310N 05616W 9769 00264 0066 +245 +212 005007 008 001 001 03
204130 1310N 05615W 9780 00257 0066 +248 +212 349007 008 000 002 03
204200 1310N 05613W 9767 00263 0063 +248 +212 343007 007 000 002 03
204230 1311N 05612W 9774 00256 0063 +247 +212 333007 007 002 002 03
204300 1311N 05610W 9769 00261 0063 +245 +211 314005 006 000 005 03
204330 1312N 05609W 9771 00259 0063 +245 +210 305005 006 000 003 03
204400 1313N 05608W 9769 00259 0061 +244 +209 299004 005 000 003 03
204430 1315N 05607W 9772 00255 0060 +240 +209 274000 002 000 002 03
204500 1316N 05607W 9770 00256 0059 +240 +208 168001 002 /// /// 03
204530 1318N 05606W 9770 00253 0057 +246 +207 118003 004 000 002 03
204600 1319N 05606W 9769 00256 0057 +246 +207 115006 008 000 002 03
204630 1321N 05605W 9771 00252 0056 +245 +207 112010 011 000 003 03
$$
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