ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Blinhart]

Does anyone think that Ernesto can turn into a Major Hurricane?

I'm thinking the majority of the people on here think it would be a big Major Hurricane. I think the question should of been who thinks it will not become a Major Hurricane.

I think the real question is will it follow the Southern edge of the Ensembles and skirt along South America and hinder the strength, or will it follow the Northern edge of the Ensembles and hit the Mountain Islands, or go right down the middle and have light shear and high SSTs.

[bella_may]

Pray all stays safe in this storm! Hopefully it will steer clear of us here on the Ms coast

[Tyler Penland]

Does anyone think that Ernesto can turn into a Major Hurricane?

Can? Sure. Will? Anybody's guess. IMHO, this thing could pose a major threat to the western Gulf Coast/Mexico region, but time will tell.
Really enjoying the discussion btw guys. Gotta post more.

[ROCK]

With Recon finding a much stronger system I suspect these models will shift a bit more north once they are fed the complete synoptics. We could see some stair stepping along the ridge.

agree.....some people dont realize when we say ridge its not some smooth curved line like we see on the maps. It has peaks and valleys in it which allows stair stepping.....

[timmeister]

Does anyone think that Ernesto can turn into a Major Hurricane?

With the right track, with no shear and add the warm waters....YES.

[AJC3]

Looking at the recon obs, given the fast forward speed, the areal extent of west and NW winds with this TC is VERY small - it barely has a closed ground-relative wind circulation, even though the surface/low level vortex is well-defined.

[Blinhart]

When is the next scheduled flight?? Will they add flights and do more flights for studies, like they did last year???

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think that Ernesto can turn into a Major Hurricane?

I think so, at least once it hits the deep, warm 29-31°C water of the W Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico with the light wind shear of only 5-10 knots and the moist air. I think we may be tracking a Category 3 or 4, but a Category 5 seems quite generous.

_____________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cheezyWXguy]

Time will tell how much it strengthens. We only have a storm that has just now been upgraded to a TS, a little early to be considering whether it will be a major since no model forecasts it yet.

[Riptide]

Does anyone think that Ernesto can turn into a Major Hurricane?

I think so, at least once it hits the deep, warm 29-31°C water of the W Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico with the light wind shear of only 5-10 knots and the moist air. I think we may be tracking a Category 3 or 4, but a Category 5 seems quite generous.

_____________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Last Category 5 was Hurricane Felix in 2007, one is coming up very soon based on statistics.

[chrisjslucia]

Along with the upgrade to Storm status, NHC have amended their forecast track and the centre of Ernesto is now shown be in line with St Vincent tomorrow, Friday. Rather than passing north of Barbados it is seen to skim its southern coast.

Plenty of time for more changes yet though.

Also the surface wind field shown by NHC is largely to the north of the storm centre, so Barbados would be well in line with that as would St Lucia and maybe Martinique if the tracking actually reflects the forecast. Anyone with any more info on this issue?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022055
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 34 20120802
204700 1322N 05605W 9770 00253 0054 +245 +207 112012 012 /// /// 03
204730 1323N 05606W 9605 00398 0042 +230 +207 103011 012 /// /// 03
204800 1324N 05608W 9221 00754 0039 +221 +206 113011 013 000 003 03
204830 1325N 05609W 8776 01170 0032 +203 //// 135008 009 /// /// 05
204900 1326N 05611W 8366 01600 0026 +187 //// 134010 011 /// /// 05
204930 1327N 05613W 7947 02038 //// +164 //// 142010 011 /// /// 05
205000 1328N 05614W 7589 02416 //// +151 //// 122011 013 /// /// 05
205030 1328N 05616W 7280 02766 //// +133 //// 102013 014 /// /// 05
205100 1329N 05618W 6992 03106 //// +125 //// 098011 011 /// /// 05
205130 1330N 05619W 6731 03424 //// +101 //// 096011 012 /// /// 05
205200 1331N 05621W 6515 03698 //// +084 //// 090013 014 001 001 05
205230 1332N 05623W 6298 03974 //// +071 //// 051014 015 001 001 05
205300 1333N 05624W 6055 04306 //// +050 //// 042018 018 /// /// 05
205330 1334N 05626W 5834 04606 //// +028 //// 054016 017 /// /// 05
205400 1335N 05627W 5654 04862 //// +010 //// 059015 017 014 001 05
205430 1336N 05629W 5501 05081 //// -004 //// 049019 020 009 003 01
205500 1337N 05631W 5335 05323 0231 -021 //// 046018 019 012 003 01
205530 1338N 05633W 5161 05582 0247 -036 //// 020015 016 014 002 01
205600 1339N 05634W 5060 05743 0259 -048 //// 026016 016 015 001 01
205630 1340N 05636W 5052 05755 0258 -048 //// 031018 018 016 001 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-
A. 03/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 03/0400Z
D. 13.0N 57.5W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

[Dave]

This misson is over....heading back to St Croix now.

[Dave]

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-
A. 03/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 03/0400Z
D. 13.0N 57.5W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

[Weatherfreak000]

Does anyone think that Ernesto can turn into a Major Hurricane?

Can? Sure. Will? Anybody's guess. IMHO, this thing could pose a major threat to the western Gulf Coast/Mexico region, but time will tell.
Really enjoying the discussion btw guys. Gotta post more.

Western GOM/Mexico region? It looks to me like you're making a forecast there pal i'll hold you to it just in case Ernesto has other plans. Welcome to S2K!

[JamesCaneTracker]

So that's 12 tonight right?

[WeatherCat]

Good luck to our friends in the Islands who will experience storm conditions soon - please keep us posted as electricity and internet service allows!

[sunnyday]

Is it too soon to say that SE Fl is in the clear?