ATL: ISAAC - Models

[tropicwatch]

Landfall Tallahassee

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=177

Except that Tallahassee isn't on the coast. That area would be in the vicinity of Apalachicola-Carabelle.

[Pigsnibble]

Yup, or St. Marks area.... SLOSH model would be bad for surge water.

[cycloneye]

Just for kicks here is the 18z NOGAPS.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Just for kicks here is the 18z NOGAPS.

Great New England Hurricane II

[Pigsnibble]

Like any recon data, next set will give us a better view. NOGAPS has its warts like everything else, but fun to watch....I like to watch CMC for potential development scenarios. It seems to see butterfly wing effects and develop them.

[Wx_Warrior]

That model is to the "good model" like William Chung was to American Idol. Funny, but not good.

[bamajammer4eva]

Landfall Tallahassee

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=177

3rd or 4th landfall... lets not forget about our friends in Haiti, Cuba, or South Florida

Not to mention, Tallahassee is inland

Oh yeah KTLH is 18 miles inland. Guess one could say Jacksonville and Panama City aren't actually on the coast either-only Panama City Beach and Jacksonville Beach.

[BobHarlem]

The model layout for Isaac looks strikingly similar to Irene last year at this point. Everyone was discussing Florida, and none of the models projected it moving over Puerto Rico like it did. In fact, most were clipping Hispaniola and going over east Cuba, if I recall correctly anyway?

[Hurricane Alexis]

The model layout for Isaac looks strikingly similar to Irene last year at this point. Everyone was discussing Florida, and none of the models projected it moving over Puerto Rico like it did. In fact, most were clipping Hispaniola and going over east Cuba, if I recall correctly anyway?

But it's different this time because the models are in excellent agreement of Isaac going south of the islands and the ridge to the north is currently strong so Isaac should continue to move west.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I forgot the conversion. What time est is 0z? 0z is when the new models come out with the recon pass in it right?

[KBBOCA]

I forgot the conversion. What time est is 0z? 0z is when the new models come out with the recon pass in it right?

0z is 8 p.m. Eastern during Daylight Savings Time

[tolakram]

Right now EDT is -4 so 0z models are 8pm ... unfortunately I don't know when they first start generating output.

[clipper35]

The model layout for Isaac looks strikingly similar to Irene last year at this point. Everyone was discussing Florida, and none of the models projected it moving over Puerto Rico like it did. In fact, most were clipping Hispaniola and going over east Cuba, if I recall correctly anyway?

But it's different this time because the models are in excellent agreement of Isaac going south of the islands and the ridge to the north is currently strong so Isaac should continue to move west.

not all models are in agreement at this time gfs is more north into florida and the european model is to the south hitting the yucatan the american gfs is thinking a weaker bermuda high ridge and the european model is thinking a stronger ridge all other models are close for thee days out after that its up to how strong isaac gets or how weak he is everybody from the gulf to the east coast shoud monitor this carefully.

[blp]

18z HWRF a little stronger towards the end.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Evil Jeremy]

Right now EDT is -4 so 0z models are 8pm ... unfortunately I don't know when they first start generating output.

1130 starts the output withGFS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

The model layout for Isaac looks strikingly similar to Irene last year at this point. Everyone was discussing Florida, and none of the models projected it moving over Puerto Rico like it did. In fact, most were clipping Hispaniola and going over east Cuba, if I recall correctly anyway?

But it's different this time because the models are in excellent agreement of Isaac going south of the islands and the ridge to the north is currently strong so Isaac should continue to move west.

not all models are in agreement at this time gfs is more north into florida and the european model is to the south hitting the yucatan the american gfs is thinking a weaker bermuda high ridge and the european model is thinking a stronger ridge all other models are close for thee days out after that its up to how strong isaac gets or how weak he is everybody from the gulf to the east coast shoud monitor this carefully.

I meant in that they're in agreement in not going north of Hispaniola and puerto rico, except a few models.

[Evil Jeremy]

I didnt see the new GFDL posted. Has a Broward County landfall in 5 days, much faster than the NHC forecast:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[JPmia]

I didnt see the new GFDL posted. Has a Broward County landfall in 5 days, much faster than the NHC forecast:

i think the big qualifier on this run is the land interaction with Haiti/DR.. it goes right over mountains over 10,000ft high! lol

[weatherSnoop]

Oh yeah KTLH is 18 miles inland. Guess one could say Jacksonville and Panama City aren't actually on the coast either-only Panama City Beach and Jacksonville Beach.

But there is no Tallahassee Beach