EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Continues to organize fast.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 99.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 99.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 99.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 99.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 9.5N 100.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 10.2N 100.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.0N 101.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.0N 102.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 101.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.3N 99.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

Disco not out yet.

[cycloneye]

The first track is very worrisom for the Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

Disco not out yet.

Here it is.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS SUFFICIENT CENTER DEFINITION AND
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND...CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK DATA-T NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB.
WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS THROUGH 72
HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR
THE FIRST DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT...AND THEN STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...LITTLE CHANGE
IS SHOWN AS THE CYCLONE TURNS NORTHWARD...MOVES TOWARD COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF THROUGH 72
HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE LGEM AFTER THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/04...AS THE CENTER
WAS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE
DEPRESSION MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST
PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS LEFT BY THE RETREATING PACIFIC RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ARE EXPECTED DURING
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH SHOULD
IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE EAST OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE FAST MOTION
OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SEEMS A BIT UNREALISTIC...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS PARALLEL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 9.3N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 9.5N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 10.2N 100.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 11.0N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 12.0N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 17.5N 101.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

The first track is very worrisom for the Mexican coast.

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/9885 ... w5nlsm.gif

Ouch for MX.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[CrazyC83]

Ugly setup indeed. Has there ever been a significant landfalling hurricane in May in the EPAC?

[Yellow Evan]

Ugly setup indeed. Has there ever been a significant landfalling hurricane in May in the EPAC?

No.

[cycloneye]

As I posted on page 6, I am following the cruise ship (Millenium's) track as it has a stop on Puerto Vallarta on the 24th. Last report of location was at 5/20/12 1500z.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=9HJF9

[Yellow Evan]

Nvm I lied. Agatha 71 was landfalling May hurricane. Andres 79 came close as well.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Typhoon Hunter]

Cycloneye, I'm sure the cruise company have contingency plans in case of tropical threats, unless it's a Costa ship in which case it'll probably deliberately try a "floating recon" mission and capsize!

Amazing to see the SW coast of Mexico potentially at threat so early in the season!

[Kingarabian]

Woo go EPAC baby! But damn as much as I love EPAC storms, this one won't be a fish. I hope all our friends in Mexico are well prepared for this one. It could be an ugly late May and early June for Mexico with Bud and another storm in a few weeks...

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wont be surprised if NHC goes Code Red on next TWO at 5 PM PDT or on the 11 PM PDT

Well,I wasn't surprised that they quickly released the STWO as this is organizing fast. But in a serious way,those who live in the Mexican Riviera must start preparations because it looks like this system will be the first Hurricane of the EPAC season with the enviromental conditions favorable ahead.

Yeah, its not surprising the NHC was so quick to act; this thing was organizing like crazy. I got the 60% thing right and with future Bud finally here, historic makings are within sight. I just hope recon is going to be scheduled to sample the peak intensity.

Once future Bud gets into the perfect environment, I believe there is a 80% of RI here and 80 knots might be conservative but I keep recalling them always going to that specific value for cases like this and when they leave it at that between 96-120 hours it usually spells uncertainty. Currently TD2-E has a bizarre structure with almost two arc bands to the south that have reformed (what causes them?) and medium rotational behavior. Future Bud should be called "Arc the Lad Bud" .

*cut image*

Latest

Did you modify this image to be lower in file size because I have noticed that those images are now much larger (KB) than they ever were before, this image is around 110 KB while if it was pulled from the original source it would be 450 KB. What did you do and why are they larger this year? (if you know).

TropicalAnalystwx13, your new avatar is insanely huge in file size at a whopping 3669.29 KB (3757352 bytes) and the width and length 5600px by 4400px!!! Its scaled down but that 3+ MB file has to be downloaded every time the avatar appears and thankfully I'm on a Fibre to the Home connection otherwise...I can't imagine people with dial-up accessing the page! Please change it back to the old one or take the image and convert it to a tiny file (around 100 KB); this will also make the image look better too as its currently distorted heavily. My page is even choppy with it! Thank you.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION HAS PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER WHILE A
NEW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE LARGE DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT
VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND
TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.

GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE EASTERLY
SHEAR...STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE GRADUAL.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS SHOWN
BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/6. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE 72-120 HOUR TIME PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE RECURVING. OVERALL...THE 0000 UTC MODEL
RUNS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET MODELS
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND LIES ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 9.4N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 9.7N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Almost,all the guidance turns this system to the right and into the Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

Who may have a graphic that has the cities in the Mexican coastline?

[Extratropical94]

That's a screenshot I just made with Stormpulse.
There you can see the biggest cities that are next to the cone of Two-E.
Maybe you need to view it in full size to read the names properly.

[cycloneye]

That's a screenshot I just made with Stormpulse.
There you can see the biggest cities that are next to the cone of Two-E.
Maybe you need to view it in full size to read the names properly.

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/964/sptwoe.png

Thank you for posting it. I can see the cities without the full size. Hopefully,the cruise ship Millenium avoids the Bud track well before it goes to landfall.Also,if the track stays like this it may make landfall away from big cities.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=9HJF9