ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

That 75 knots is at the 900 millibar level...not the surface.

Just taking a guess, surface winds would probably be closer to 55 or 60 knots. A strong TS making landfall in eastern NC tomorrow morning.

The thing is that this may happen exactly like modeled in this run

[bg1]

Well, I guess there is a closed low after all!

This is potentially a very scary situation, as it may spin up rapidly.

If they don't start advisories at 5, they should at least put up tropical storm warnings.

While they could certainly put up wind warnings and heavy rain warnings, it's not yet in their remit to issue tropical cyclone warnings publicly before a TC has been warned on. They're doing that internally this year but the public won't have access to these warnings.

Okay, I thought they were starting that this year publicly.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Hurricane Andrew]

Heading WSW?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

SHIP peaks at 58kts.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932012) 20120519 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120519 1800 120520 0600 120520 1800 120521 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 77.6W 31.9N 78.5W 31.5N 79.7W 30.9N 80.8W
BAMD 32.3N 77.6W 33.1N 76.7W 34.0N 77.2W 34.6N 77.8W
BAMM 32.3N 77.6W 32.4N 78.0W 32.5N 78.8W 32.4N 79.4W
LBAR 32.3N 77.6W 32.8N 77.0W 33.5N 76.7W 34.4N 76.5W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 53KTS 55KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 53KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120521 1800 120522 1800 120523 1800 120524 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.4N 80.9W 31.0N 77.9W 33.4N 73.6W 35.2N 72.7W
BAMD 35.1N 77.9W 37.4N 71.3W 40.4N 56.9W 40.0N 42.3W
BAMM 32.4N 79.1W 35.1N 71.9W 38.9N 60.0W 39.2N 46.7W
LBAR 35.9N 75.6W 39.7N 72.5W 43.2N 64.0W 43.5N 49.1W
SHIP 57KTS 58KTS 52KTS 47KTS
DSHP 57KTS 58KTS 52KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.3N LONCUR = 77.6W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 32.9N LONM12 = 77.1W DIRM12 = 215DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 33.3N LONM24 = 76.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 60NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM

[bg1]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

What else does this system need to be a tropical storm? More convection? Or are they just waiting to see if it doesn't weaken?

[RL3AO]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

What else does this system need to be a tropical storm? More convection? Or are they just waiting to see if it doesn't weaken?

Pretty much.

[Hurricaneman]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

What else does this system need to be a tropical storm? More convection? Or are they just waiting to see if it doesn't weaken?

I think they're just waiting till 5, but if not named by then I would think 11

[cycloneye]

I am watching the renumber area at atcf.

[brunota2003]

Still no special POD for recon...they need 24 hour notice on mission taskings before they can launch (unless they have available resources). Hopefully internal talks began a while ago, and it's just that nothing has been publicly posted.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Cold I have a link to that cyclone?

[RL3AO]

Cold I have a link to that cyclone?

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Direct link. When this works you know we have Alberto.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012012.ren

[stormhunter7]

So, looks like a TS too me.. Should be a special adv. package coming out soon? With Tropical Storm warnings for the South Carolina coast. This this is so small, it didnt take much to ramp up!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Convective persistency...that is what the NHC is waiting for. It has persisted for a long time though so I would expect a remember at 5 pm or 11 pm

[brunota2003]

Not much on intensity from both GFDL and HWRF.

12z GFDL

12z HWRF

GFS is already 10 knots too low for the first forecast point (18Z). HWRF is close, as it jumped the winds to 39 knots for the first forecast point (again, 18Z).

[bg1]

Cold I have a link to that cyclone?

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Direct link. When this works you know we have Alberto.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012012.ren

If it does get upgraded, the link will work within the next hour.

[Chacor]

Could do without a lot of the non-disclaimered speculation this thread has been getting, if you ask me… we'll get it when we get it. Until then, pointless to remark about when the first or special advisory will be, unless you have insider information.

[stormhunter7]

last 4 hours.. storms have fired over the center again, shear is light in the immediate area.. but hostile both north and south of low. Looking at the buoys close by, cant see them not pull the trigger. Since this is so small, and persisted for more than 10 hours now, i expect will have a TS very soon! If i remember correctly, the EURO at one point went SW with this toward NE Florida coast, before loosing it?

[brunota2003]

That 75 knots is at the 900 millibar level...not the surface.

Just taking a guess, surface winds would probably be closer to 55 or 60 knots. A strong TS making landfall in eastern NC tomorrow morning.

The thing is that this may happen exactly like modeled in this run

The NWS and local media don't believe it'll be that strong, if/when it moves ashore. They are thinking probably closer to 40 or 45 mph, or the typical Nor'Easter the area gets in April/May timeframe. Though they are watching the situation closely, as anyone that has lived in that area for more than a day knows what the Gulf Stream can do to storms...right now, though, that looks too aggressive because of the abundance of dry air and wind shear (according to them).

[cycloneye]

TAFB at T2.0

AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3210N 7780W SAB EG 1515 ///// T DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO CON

AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3220N 7770W TAFB SS 2020 ///// T DT 2.0 BO CURVED BAND