CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139743
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: DANIEL - Hurricane

#121 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2012 5:35 pm

Daniel doesn't care that dry air is waiting in the wings. :)

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

#122 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 6:52 pm

This will likely be declared a Category 2 hurricane at the 00Z ATCF update. If not, it's a given in post-season analysis.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15960
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

#123 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 07, 2012 6:56 pm

I'd go with 90 knts now. What are latest ADT numbers?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

Re:

#124 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 6:58 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:I'd go with 90 knts now. What are latest ADT numbers?

5.0/5.0 from NESDIS' Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) at 18Z, and 5.2 from UW-CIMSS ADT at 23Z.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:
Contact brunota2003

#125 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:07 pm

The eyewall is not complete, no solid reds around the eye (only on the eastern side). 90 mph seems pretty good to me, especially when also looking at MIMIC-TC.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15960
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: Re:

#126 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:07 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I'd go with 90 knts now. What are latest ADT numbers?

5.0/5.0 from NESDIS' Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) at 18Z, and 5.2 from UW-CIMSS ADT at 23Z.


So, 90-95 knts roughly, right.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

Re: Re:

#127 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:08 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I'd go with 90 knts now. What are latest ADT numbers?

5.0/5.0 from NESDIS' Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) at 18Z, and 5.2 from UW-CIMSS ADT at 23Z.


So, 90-95 knts roughly, right.

Yeah.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

Re:

#128 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:10 pm

brunota2003 wrote:The eyewall is not complete, no solid reds around the eye (only on the eastern side). 90 mph seems pretty good to me, especially when also looking at MIMIC-TC.

If you're basing that off of NESDIS' Satellite floater for Daniel, just know that it has been down since 19Z.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

#129 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:27 pm

Daniel has become a Category 2 Hurricane!

EP, 04, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1207W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 25, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, D,

Sorry for the back to back to back posts, guys.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15462
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: Re:

#130 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:38 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:The eyewall is not complete, no solid reds around the eye (only on the eastern side). 90 mph seems pretty good to me, especially when also looking at MIMIC-TC.

If you're basing that off of NESDIS' Satellite floater for Daniel, just know that it has been down since 19Z.

Wow NESDIS is still down...

And yay for Daniel!
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

#131 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:18 pm

UW-CIMSS ADT pegs Daniel at 120 mph.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 956.6mb/104.6kt

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15462
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#132 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:31 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 if only that ring of convection can fully wrap around... :double:
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

#133 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:37 pm

Daniel and Emilia getting ready for bed.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15960
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: Re:

#134 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:41 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I'd go with 90 knts now. What are latest ADT numbers?

5.0/5.0 from NESDIS' Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) at 18Z, and 5.2 from UW-CIMSS ADT at 23Z.


Thank you for answering.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15462
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#135 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:47 pm

Daniel really has a massive outflow from all directions. Thankfully Emilia is a few hundred miles away or else he would have eaten her up.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139743
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#136 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:56 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Daniel really has a massive outflow from all directions. Thankfully Emilia is a few hundred miles away or else he would have eaten her up.


Good point there.I think the distance between them is around 900 -1000 miles.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15462
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#137 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:11 pm

According to Dvorak Daniel's pressure is down to 958mb.

That is a 22mb drop in less than 11 hours.

Sucks it wont continue... unless he some how goes annular.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

#138 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:14 pm

Daniel has peaked and is now weakening.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15462
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#139 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:16 pm

Agreed :uarrow:.

He decided to intensify the last minute lol.

Image
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15960
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

#140 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:22 pm

Meh, that was fun though. I would not rule further intensification out though as I said it peaked twice, when it continued intensifying.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests