ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT TWO:

Up to 20%

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

This deserves to become a hurricane given how it has been a fighter.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

:uarrow:
In terms of more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development this season, most definitely the Eastern Pacific has fared considerably better than the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic basin has been plagued by the SAL, TUTTs and upper level shear to effectively hinder the development of systems this season. Ernesto has been the only CV tropical cyclone to somehow survive those factors. It looks as if these factors will continue right on as El Nino sets up shop. So far, the only real action we have had this season were the homegrown systems, Beryl and Debby, which both significantly affected my region.

...What about Category One hurricane Ernesto?

You must have overlooked what I stated in my post. Look very carefully at my earlier post. I clearly pointed out that Ernesto has been the only significant Cape Verde tropical cyclone to have survived the hostile conditions in the Atlantic basin. However, in terms of impact to the mainland United States, Beryl and Debby has been the only real action to this point.

Yes, he did state that Ernesto somehow survived those factors.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
1050 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE... 30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Shower activity is on the rise, look at how it's gaining convection and organization in all quadrants. It's probably hitting those warmer waters as anticipated. However, I don't really think this would become a hurricane, if it develops, because there's a large patch of very dry air ahead. So far this season, I can't seem to locate a perfect area for TC development because everywhere I look, something is always inhibiting it. Whether it is dry air, wind shear, cold SSTs or land interaction, they always seem to come together in some way that sets up a storm to fail. It's too bad I wasn't interested in hurricanes in 2010, because I would have had a blast tracking the Atlantic with those 12 hurricanes that formed. But, it's still August and not the peak month yet, so we'll wait and see what happens in September.

Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong in anything here.

______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

it better and have in days nhc was right when it got over warm water could make comeback

[cycloneye]

Here is this morning's discussion of 93L by Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:01 AM AST on August 14, 2012

A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 1000 miles southeast of Bermuda. Satellite loops this morning show a surface circulation attempting to form, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased markedly since Monday. Wind shear is light, and ocean temperatures are warm, near 27.5°C. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L has moistened its environment considerably, but dry air is still a significant impediment to development. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry through Wednesday, then moisten considerably. The storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. By Saturday, as 93L is headed northeastwards towards the Azores Islands, the GFS and NOGPAS models predict development into a tropical depression. Residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L, which could pass close to the islands as early as Sunday night. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. Given the recent increase in 93L's organization, I put these odds at 50%.

[Zanthe]

So much for being 100%, definitely dead with no chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

>_>

[Aric Dunn]

Its is looking quite impressive today in the low levels compared to yesterday. only slight increase in convection and NHC will probably go to 50 or 60 today at some point.

[floridasun78]

when will turn to nw start now moving wnw to west?

[Aric Dunn]

later today through tomorrow.

[MGC]

Despite the dry air surrounding 93L, convection has increased quite a bit since yesterday....and to my old eyes it looks like there is a spin associated with the disturbance....looks like some healthy shear ahead of 93L but with the tropics you never know what is going to happen...MGC

[wxman57]

It's rounding the western side of the high pressure area today. Should be turning north then northeast and out to sea over the next few days. It does look like an LLC has developed, though convection is weak.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Any way this strengthens and the remnants hit england/general area of europe?

[gatorcane]

It's looking better organized today. I would say a code red is warranted on this system. I can see them going to 60% on this next TWO, maybe higher.

[Hurricaneman]

It's looking better organized today. I would say a code red is warranted on this system. I can see them going to 60% on this next TWO, maybe higher.

I say they stay orange with 40% because the convection is meager

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Zanthe]

If it keeps looking how it does, we COULD have a TD as early as tomorrow evening, in my opinion. It's well defined, and a larger blow up of convection could push the system into a TD or TS.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Given its heading into the subtropics now (which does seem to be a more favourable developmental zone for El Nino seasons then normal seasons) I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it does indeed try and develop. The biggest issue just seems to be a lack of instablity, but you'd be surprised what you can do even with fairly weak convection with other factors woking in its favour.