ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Hurricane Alexis]

18z HWRF run from yesterday.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt ... 8/sfc.html

00z run.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt ... 0/sfc.html

[Shuriken]

Those are some nice charts....is there a link to an "always the latest" animation for 'em?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Those are some nice charts....is there a link to an "always the latest" animation for 'em?

Here's the link for every run, including previous runs.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/basinscale/

[KWT]

06z GFS running, system at 48hrs is moving slightly south of west and strengthening:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal048.gif

Already different from the ECM.

[KWT]

06z GFS totally different to the ECM again, strengthening storm heading towards the E.Caribbean.

Looks like at 144hrs this one is heading towards PR again as a hurricane...

[cycloneye]

Let's remember that so far this season GFS has been better than Euro in many aspects,the most notorious, the Debby scenario.

[KWT]

Yep, the GFS shows a very powerful hurricane heading up the west Atlantic heading towards the NE states by 300hrs.

Some really major differences in the models this morning again after some good agreement last night.

[rainstorm]

euro has this thing flying which is why it cant develop.

[tolakram]

If the ridge is strong I fail to see why this won't be like all the other invests this year, moving too fast to develop. I also can't remember the euro being so erratic.

[perk]

Let's remember that so far this season GFS has been better than Euro in many aspects,the most notorious, the Debby scenario.

Cyclone that latest GFS track has me concerned for the islands and Puerto Rico. Normally i would'nt be worried this far out, but the GFS has been performing darn good.

[AHS2011]

does anyone have a link to some model websites that I could look at? Thanks

[tailgater]

does anyone have a link to some model websites that I could look at? Thanks

If you go to Storm 2 K home page One of the headers is Models that is a really good start. Good luck.

[cycloneye]

12z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 181319
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1319 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120818 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120818  1200   120819  0000   120819  1200   120820  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  27.7W   13.3N  29.8W   14.0N  32.7W   14.9N  36.3W
BAMD    12.3N  27.7W   12.8N  30.4W   13.4N  32.9W   14.0N  35.2W
BAMM    12.3N  27.7W   13.4N  30.3W   14.3N  33.2W   15.1N  36.4W
LBAR    12.3N  27.7W   12.9N  30.6W   13.3N  33.7W   13.8N  36.9W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          41KTS          50KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          41KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120820  1200   120821  1200   120822  1200   120823  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.4N  40.7W   15.5N  50.8W   13.4N  58.8W   10.6N  61.8W
BAMD    14.6N  37.7W   15.7N  43.0W   16.9N  47.2W   18.8N  48.9W
BAMM    15.7N  40.0W   16.3N  48.5W   15.4N  56.6W   13.3N  62.1W
LBAR    14.3N  40.4W   14.5N  48.3W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        58KTS          75KTS          90KTS         105KTS
DSHP        58KTS          75KTS          90KTS         105KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  27.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  11.9N LONM12 =  25.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  21.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Bocadude85]

I see the 6z GFS shifted a little further west again.. brings this system into the Bahamas before landfalling in the NE. Got awful close to Florida on that run.. I wonder if the westward shifts will continue?

[gatorcane]

00Z FIM 240 hours, insists on really deepening this system quickly in the MDR and sending it North then NW before reaching the Leewards...approaching Bermuda. The FIM has shown a solution that would not impact the Caribbean islands for many runs now.

[meriland23]

This is what is really scary. Last GFS run sent it riding up along coast, but far enough out to where it was not a threat, new gfs is a whole new ballgame. Here is 300 hrs and 348 hrs, pretty scary. Nothing is certain, but the fact that they are moving it closer to the states as time progresses, well that is a little unsettling.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF ensembles in the long-range...the GFS shows a weakness developing east of Florida over the Bahamas but the ECMWF shows more ridging and the weakness further west over Florida and the SE U.S. in this run:

[Aric Dunn]

very interesting trend. notice the ensemble members of the gfs some keep the ridging like the euro wont be surprised to see the gfs 12z shift farther west.

[SFLcane]

Look at the 06z Esembles..

[StarmanHDB]

06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF ensembles in the long-range...the GFS shows a weakness developing east of Florida over the Bahamas but the ECMWF shows more ridging and the weakness further west over Florida and the SE U.S. in this run:

Both of these scenarios thread the needle with Florida being "the eye" of that needle. I know it's a long way off and that so much is subject to change, but as they say, it is that time of year! Either way, I hope that those living in and around the Lesser Antilles are prepared and that all stay safe!