ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fci]

it look like nhc think going to be fish their no flight plan to go 98l their did by now for Isaac in same area

I dont know they task this far out.....I think its 55W before they fly out...

looks like a TD to me....you dont get -80C cloud tops in the MDR without something tapping the surface....JMO of course...

for Isaac their want out to round 50w i think their think going affect land their may send plane but going fish their wont i notice that before

If I read the report right, in the Isaac Recon threads; they got to him at around 60w.
I am not a skilled reader of the reports, but from the "task" I think that's what it was.

[bob rulz]

Leslie is almost a certainty at 5am imo.

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[ConvergenceZone]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH

Hmmm, it says "advisories may be issues", advisories for where? Just curious....

[senorpepr]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH

Hmmm, it says "advisories may be issues", advisories for where? Just curious....

Advisories, such as the public advisory, forecast discussion, etc.
Not as in watches and warnings.

[TheEuropean]

30/0000 UTC 14.0N 39.3W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic
30/0545 UTC 14.0N 40.9W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic

[jlauderdal]

it look like nhc think going to be fish their no flight plan to go 98l their did by now for Isaac in same area

its too far out for recon, wait till around 50-55w

[cycloneye]

If you look closely,the center is on the eastern edge of convection. Maybe that is why they are holding for a few hours the classification.For now it doesn't seem to gain latitude.

[hurricanes1234]

Nederlander said: She's definitely got an evil smile on her face like she is up to no good...

I see what you mean. Three red areas of colder cloudtops that happened to form a smiling face. I'm sure by the time the next image came out, this pattern was gone.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041 will provide valuable information as the system moves thru in the next 12-18 hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[KWT]

Even so Cycloneye, its clearly got deep convection and looks like it has an
LLC, so it should get upgrade next advisory.

In terms of strengthening though a lopsided system isn't going to cause this one to blow up, maybe slow strengthening for the next few days.

[TheBurn]

10:00 UTC RGB / Natural Color

[Blown Away]

Looking at the 06z models 98L looks like a homerun recurve out to sea, maybe Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Near 100%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Season

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Aug 30, 2012 7:26 am ET

ATLANTIC

- The next system (Invest 98L) is on the verge of being classified as a tropical depression. Most forecast model runs don't predict it to reach North America, though one leaves the door open to that.

[Gustywind]

From NRL site:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... bw&PROD=ir

20120830.1115.98LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-139N-413W

[GCANE]

Very good looking warm core

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 4_TANO.GIF

Cold topped convection firing very near the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 300345.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Really good looking outflow on the west side advecting into a stable air mass.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[KWT]

This is without a doubt a TD, and very probably a TS already. It has got a slightly lopsided appearence but I think its a TC now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking very good:



Almost as if the western half of an eyewall has formed. Great banding nonetheless.

[expat2carib]

As large as Isaac



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

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