ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

[CrazyC83]

What is the reduction rate from FL wind to SFC wind at 6K feet?

80% reduction level.

So we have to see 80 kts to have an upgrade right?

Correct, unless the SFMR makes it obvious as well. But the 80% rule seems right here. Both support a 60 kt current intensity.

[tolakram]

Latest

[Hurricane Andrew]

nvm Jeremy. Thanks guys.


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[GTStorm]

I'm near Orange Park in the Argyle area of Jacksonville, and I can tell you most are not prepared for a hurricane. We were at the pool with the kids earlier. As a matter of fact, I've got the grill going outside now trying to finish up before the meat of the storm hits. The wife just went to Target though and it's packed. Most were saying they just heard there was even a storm coming let alone a potential hurricane.

just please, please, please leave some for us on the re-curve back through the east coast....we desperately need the rain and it looks like we're just on the northern boundary of the rainbands.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272134
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 13 20120527
212530 2941N 07951W 8427 01496 0027 +143 +130 247043 047 039 004 00
212600 2940N 07949W 8426 01504 0034 +144 +127 245042 043 039 002 00
212630 2939N 07948W 8428 01505 0042 +138 +128 245043 044 038 002 00
212700 2938N 07946W 8432 01506 0047 +139 +128 241042 044 039 004 00
212730 2936N 07945W 8430 01509 0048 +139 +129 239042 043 038 002 00
212800 2935N 07944W 8429 01510 0046 +143 +125 236042 042 038 002 03
212830 2934N 07942W 8429 01513 0050 +140 +125 237043 043 038 002 00
212900 2933N 07941W 8429 01517 0055 +139 +127 236043 044 036 002 00
212930 2932N 07940W 8432 01516 0060 +137 +134 237045 045 036 001 00
213000 2930N 07938W 8429 01521 0066 +130 +130 241045 046 036 002 01
213030 2929N 07937W 8428 01526 0073 +130 +130 240046 048 036 007 01
213100 2928N 07936W 8446 01509 0070 +130 +130 239050 051 038 008 01
213130 2927N 07934W 8424 01535 0077 +130 +130 237047 050 038 005 01
213200 2926N 07933W 8431 01532 0074 +136 +135 231045 046 038 005 00
213230 2924N 07932W 8427 01537 0071 +149 +121 230043 044 034 005 00
213300 2923N 07931W 8426 01540 0075 +147 +114 232045 045 033 002 00
213330 2922N 07929W 8435 01535 0081 +144 +107 228046 046 033 001 00
213400 2921N 07928W 8427 01545 0086 +144 +105 226047 047 031 002 00
213430 2920N 07927W 8425 01548 0086 +145 +109 224046 048 033 002 00
213500 2918N 07926W 8432 01544 0089 +142 +111 226043 045 031 003 00
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

Guys, using GR3, I found winds of 83.5 knots at 6147 ft.

Brain Norcross was just saying the samething on the weather channel

[ozonepete]

Slightly south of west (270 degrees). I don't think It would matter that much, though.

No. Not with a COC that big and the broad ring of powerful convection.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Guys, using GR3, I found winds of 83.5 knots at 6147 ft.

Brain Norcross was just saying the samething on the weather channel

Great mindsthink alike!

[Dean4Storms]

Many people in Jax are unprepared for this I'm afraid. Just had a friend on FB that lives in Jax. Bch. tell me she was headed out for Cocktails and Dinner this evening!

Think this storm got downplayed too much!

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[Dave]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 21:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 21Z on the 27th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 30.1N 80.3W
Location: 76 miles (122 km) to the NE (36°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 117 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
993mb (29.32 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 23.5°C (74.3°F) 305° (from the NW) 7 knots (8 mph)
1000mb -65m (-213 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 618m (2,028 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 19.7°C (67.5°F) 20° (from the NNE) 4 knots (5 mph)
850mb 1,354m (4,442 ft) 20.0°C (68.0°F) 16.5°C (61.7°F) 295° (from the WNW) 4 knots (5 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 21:16Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 30.05N 80.29W
Splash Time: 21:18Z

Release Location: 30.05N 80.29W View map)
Release Time: 21:16:07Z

Splash Location: 30.05N 80.29W (
Splash Time: 21:17:20Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 330° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 330° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 992mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 335° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
993mb (Surface) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 23.5°C (74.3°F)
947mb 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.3°C (70.3°F)
922mb 23.0°C (73.4°F) 19.5°C (67.1°F)
850mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) 16.5°C (61.7°F)
843mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 16.2°C (61.2°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
993mb (Surface) 305° (from the NW) 7 knots (8 mph)
908mb 345° (from the NNW) 2 knots (2 mph)
862mb 300° (from the WNW) 5 knots (6 mph)
843mb 290° (from the WNW) 3 knots (3 mph)


---



[ozonepete]

Just have to think winds will be very impressive when the get to the northern side of the convective wall. Looks like it's still on the upswing.

[NDG]

I'm back from the beach, but the wrong beach, been vacation in Clearwater for the last couple of days. And the worst thing is that right on the beach there is no cell service
The weather here besides a stronger than average seabreeze is like there is no storm 150 miles from here.

I see that Beryl has gotten stronger. My parents live in St Augustine, just a mile from from the coast, they are in for a nice ride tonight.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Dave, that dropsonde message said dropped in eye. Does that mean....

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 272138
XXAA 77218 99299 70801 08190 99996 23409 25040 00534 ///// /////
92644 19204 26541 85372 18231 25035 88999 77999
31313 09608 82120
61616 AF308 0302A BERYL OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2992N08005W 2122 MBL WND 25550 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 25542 996843 WL150 25047 084 REL 2991N08008W 212023 SPG 2992N0
8005W 212244 =
XXBB 77218 99299 70801 08190 00996 23409 11969 21003 22878 17609
33850 18231 44843 18033
21212 00996 25040 11993 25046 22986 25545 33981 25051 44964 26049
55958 26054 66938 26050 77919 26538 88905 26040 99895 26036 11855
25034 22843 25035
31313 09608 82120
61616 AF308 0302A BERYL OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2992N08005W 2122 MBL WND 25550 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 25542 996843 WL150 25047 084 REL 2991N08008W 212023 SPG 2992N0
8005W 212244 =
;

[cycloneye]

Many people in Jax are unprepared for this I'm afraid. Just had a friend on FB that lives in Jax. Bch. tell me she was headed out for Cocktails and Dinner this evening!

Think this storm got downplayed too much!

That was because the term Subtropical for most of it's tenure is not known by the majority of the people.

[thetruesms]

Many people in Jax are unprepared for this I'm afraid. Just had a friend on FB that lives in Jax. Bch. tell me she was headed out for Cocktails and Dinner this evening!

Think this storm got downplayed too much!

The St. Augustine Ampitheatre is going strong with their "All shows rain or shine" tagline, too. I've got a friend going to the concert there tonight.

[Mouton]

Conditions at 41012 as of
(4:50 pm EDT) Off St Augustine....40 miles
Wind Direction (WDIR):

NW ( 310 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):

40.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST):

50.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 14.8 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.42 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):-0.19 in ( Falling Rapidly )

CoC must be near by.

[ozonepete]

Many people in Jax are unprepared for this I'm afraid. Just had a friend on FB that lives in Jax. Bch. tell me she was headed out for Cocktails and Dinner this evening!

Think this storm got downplayed too much!

The St. Augustine Ampitheatre is going strong with their "All shows rain or shine" tagline, too. I've got a friend going to the concert there tonight.

That's nuts!